Based on a quick read of the news, my best guess is we get a div cut to about .05/quarter until prices recover. It's better than BBEP and a few others that are running out of time I guess, but we need higher prices within 12 months IMO.
1) New CEO
2) Licensing deal for 371 (they have interest now and are just waiting to hire/announce the CEO IMO)
3) BelXR (not sure if this is a market mover, or not)
4) 334 data and then partner or acquisition
5) 811 data then ...
we will know by the CEO selection is the ARNA BOD is serious about shareholder value, or protecting their personal interests. They should all be asked to resign once the new CEO starts. Their bad work here is done IMO, it's time to start putting shareholders and stock price appreciation first on the agenda.
Not much action in the puts. Seems like a positive sign, but probably not enough call volume to say conclusively that there was a leak of positive data. Info always leaks...
Looks like BBEP is running out of time and potentially restructuring...MEMP is better hedged, let's see if they make an interest payment, or not. If they can continue getting costs down and oil continues heading toward $50+ we may survive and make a little $. If not, I don't want to think about that...I like getting an interest payment, but if it's an interest payment, or staying in business, I will pick staying in business.
not looking good for the unit holders, or preferred owners. Everyone except the secured bond holders may be in trouble.
USPSTF will certainly shoot this down based on the total cost and risks. Ins co's will have to pay for more colonoscopies due to the false positive and they can't have that.
there in lies the dilemma and the question, will management hire the best person for maximizing shareholder value, or for keeping the execs and BOD on to max their personal value. It's pretty much either or. Many of them (BOD and some execs) clearly need to GO!
who knows, maybe we will get a turnaround person, but it's possible the BOD will pick a friend of the BOD to keep their personal gravy train going. If they pick a strong turnaround person I will add. 371 will be in demand, it's just a matter of picking the best partner and then waiting for results, or acquisition. If they pick another Jack or Harry, I may bolt.
I think they will hire the CEO soon, then decide on the direction for 371, partner now, or do a small proof of concept Phase II to try and get more up front cash. I hear they have potential partners available now, but will wait on the new CEO before moving forward. All IMO of course. Looking forward to hearing more about the new patent they filed, can anyone find that info?
I have tried to recruit some of their people in the US, they are not that strong here, maybe x-US.
all I can tell you is I talked to an exec about a month ago and was told that they expected JNJ to announce details at an upcoming conference. A conference is upcoming. I was also told that JNJ was aware that if there was material news, they would be obligated to share that with the shareholders when known. So, I assume the results are in-line with their expectations.
no incentive for them to buy shares, they get the milk for free! There's plenty of potential news, I just hope any partner deals set them up for a BO with a leading firm and don't complicate their structure. No more deals with 3rd rate companies like Eisai or 2nd rate co' like BI. I say they focus on Teva, or large pharma/bio-pharma and stop dealing with these loser companies.
Having trouble breaking out of this range (2nd attempt), but if/when it does the run to $9-$9.25 will be swift. I guess it's all about the Hep C news this weekend (in the short run) unless/until they have FD news/developments.
Let's hear about the phase II plans, what indication(s) are being targeted first, will you invest in the trial, or find a partner? It would seem they could do a small II trial in 1-2 therapeutics areas for a reasonable price and significantly increase the value...or they can strike a deal with a modest up front payment hand over all trial cost and responsibilities and require milestones for achievements, approval + a royalty.
If ARNA is going to remain a indpt public co, they need to get small, focus on research and hand over their assets to companies that have the $ and expertise in developing drugs. ARNA clearly does not have the $ or expertise in drug development beyond Phase I/II. They also need help gaining global approvals and marketing/sales US and x-US...