Not a fan of the CVR deal, but I understand the idea of risk and reward sharing. Investors prefer not to wain and often sell their shares prior to the end date. That allows the buyer to come in and scoop a bunch of shares in advance to avoid CVR costs. Since the ADP market has such a large potential, it would be a big gamble to pay full value in advance, so maybe no deals until that becomes clearer. I think a smart buyer could come make a $40 offer then sweeten it up to $45-50 and get the whole deal now without a significant CVR.
LLY needs a CNS pipeline badly IMO. Shire/ABBV also looking to grow, acquiring products/companies. There's no shortage of potential acquirers. Saying we will go alone is a good strategy to max the price for any would-be acquirer. I would take $40 now, but it will take more IMO if/after the product is approved. Bio-shorts like to sell after approval counting on a weak (botched) launch, so there could be a war ahead. Ultimately, I think ACAD is acquired.
I understand the question. Many of the BT designations were for Oncology drugs which take years to develop, maybe 2+ years for the large phase III, so I think most have not been decided on. Can anyone name a failure, major delay, etc that made the price drop???
Depends on the approvals/indications. For PDP maybe $500-800MM (a guess and that might be just US) for ADP, $BB's. We should take a look at the analyst predictions and their assumptions to get a better estimate. Most biotech firms still in high growth mode are valued at about 6x reasonable forward revs, but not estimated peak way in the future if all goes well...
are you holding EXAS? It's up big again. Thank God I sold my IMGN trading shares (at a big loss) and some other shares in ARNA to buy a bunch of EXAS.
Stock is a terrible under performer, shareholders must keep the heat up to demand change!!! What next, do we need to contact the large owners and ask them to contact the non-responsive, irresponsible management.
BT is fairly new. Can you find even one that was awarded BT status the was denied approval? I think the odds are very low. There can always be a delay if they have manufacturing issues, other technical filing problems but I think a perm failure would be very rare. IMO of course.
Shorts trying to exit and limit the damage, maybe some speculation that breakthrough will lead to acquisition interest, or trigger a deal that was already in waiting??? Either way, shorts are toast and could possible fuel a rally to $30.
If you want good news, just go to the IV web site. The company never announces any positive news for fearl of being acquired and losing their jobs.
Stock is falling back now, jinxed by all of the positive and hopeful comments. Sub $12 close and key reversal lower now. Let's keep it negative until there's an acquisition.
Some positive news regarding the BT drug listed on the IV board must be responsible for moving IMGN. They are excelling at not reporting news developments. Finally a break-out, maybe a move to $14, dare I dream?
worst nightmare, breakthrough and affirmed on tract to file. I won't say that confirms approval, but unless the mess something up, it's looking pretty good. Next move for shorts is to try and convince ACAD investors the product will not be a commercial success, assuming they are not called in and forced to cover today.
sold 2/3 of my position a few weeks ago to by EXAS, pretty happy with that decision. I would have sold it all, but I have covered calls still active, the only ARNA investment making a profit. Stock is a real POS, sorry I still own any and sorry I did not listen to friends that told me to sell (not referring to the liars and jokers that post here). Until Jack goes, ARNA will not go higher.
NVS has one undisclosed and 2 disclosed. Sanofi has 4 total, only one undisclosed, AMGN has 2 and 2, LLY has one, Bayer has one, the BT drug looks very interesting + Kadcyla + something like $800MM on NOL's + cash + patents, technology...$1BB is a bad joke.