There's really no reason to buy this POS except for short covering, which they may prefer to do in Jan to extend their gains into next year. Junius and BOD are clueless, so shareholders are twisting in the wind. I wish I had the guts to short SGEN. Still, gonna hold most of my shares, sold just a few for tax loss.
too much downside potential/fear after the collapse of some other biotech stocks I own. Insider sales have bothered me for a long time. I made a huge profit here already. It might go higher, I hope it does, but I was thinking there could be a sell on the filing and the insider sales were an issue for me.
Good stuff, thanks. I had the opportunity to speak with someone today that might know a few things about Belviq marketing. I think Eisai will be exploring whether there's a market for a low side effect, less effective smoking cessation drug. I think they feel the real LT value could come from A1c effects, but they need to complete studies that show it's more than a weight loss effect, kind of like Nash, which was not even mentioned. Outside the US they might have to lower the cost to sell the blue pills and Contrave seems to be the hot, low-cost pill in the US right now.
Not sure I agree on the CEO or purchasing shares, they are going to need to cut costs soon if they don't get some licensing $. I am more out than in the market as of today, just holding a winner EXAS and 2 losers ARNA and IMGN for now.
I was also looking into the oil play, but I don't have time to dig through the financials and notes to the financials to see who is hedged, or not and which companies are low-cost producers and low-debt, but there are no doubt some gems that will be acquired.
Thanks and have a Merry and Blessed Christmas and a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2015.
yes, timing was terrible, in addition to the mountain is stock I own, I had sold 60, $8 that I could have bought back for .05 or .10 and instead I paid 2.60. In one day they would have expired worthless. I get so spooked, I sold my biggest winner today ACAD. Too much risk, can't trust biotech CEO's any more than a carnival barker or tonic salesman.
What, if anything, do you think will propel ARNA out of the $4 range? Do you think Belviq will ever be a big seller? When and for what areas other than obesity?
Sold my ACAD today (thanks S9 and Jesus not necessarily in that order, but you did point it out) after a big loss in IMGN on Friday, I had too much fear of losing the big gain. I watched about $200K in paper gains in IMGN disappear over the past year, did not want to risk a similar fate if something bad happens. For some reason I think the market will correct (or worse) in 2015. Growing impatient with stocks that performed poorly in a great year for biotech.
5000 of the Jan 30 calls and puts traded. I forgot the technical term for this, but it's an attempt to keep the stock price down. The short games continue.
I am not the best to advise on timing IMGN, but typically I use the 3-day rule after a big plunge. I am not sure I would even buy it, but if I did, I might consider LT calls to limit risk. The only hope is a buy-out at this point.
I wish all of the longs well. I took a big hit on IMGN on Friday and decided to take my chips off of the table here. Not for any reason related to ACAD, just my own fear of something unexpected happening that would wipe out my best gain. With the price/valuation at this level and the large loss, I caved in to fear. I'm also not certain about the market for early 2015. Best wishes, Marry Christmas and a Blessed and Happy New Year.
I believe they said "similar to what was seen in prior trials". Clearly Kad has an advantage over Her+Chemo and Perj in side effects and QOL. Let's see if they make any changes to the trials. Clearly ADC's have some advantages, but to make a big leap something needs to be improved, either the linkers, or the manufacturing process. I am not an expert, but I have heard people say there's a variable number of toxic molecules linked to each MAb in the current process and that adds to toxicity, or prevents optimal dosing. Not sure it that has been improved in the newer products from 289 and on, or not . It appears no for 529 and 853 based on what I've seen so far. We need to know more about the current products and status of next gen improvements.
I have been investing in biotech for 25 years and typically despise and rail against the greedy, ignorant execs that run many biotech firms. It's so refreshing to be invested in a company run by intelligent, shareholder-friendly executives. Congrats and thanks to the EXAS execs for the great job they have done and continue to do for their shareholders. May God Bless them!
Let's assume in terms of efficacy, Kad = Kad + Perj = Her+Toxic chemo mix. It seems to me in terms of efficacy Perj failed to add efficacy to Kad. I believe they have trial results where Perj + Her + the toxic chemo mix did well in terms of efficacy?
In terms of safety, we all know QOL for Kad is superior to both of these alternatives. Given reasonable pricing, I think MD's and patients would probably prefer Kad. Roche can price their drugs in their own self interest, price Kad out with low prices for their alternatives because if efficacy is similar Ins co's prefer cheaper/assuming the side effects are not adding to overall cost. We will have to keep an eye on Kadcyla trials and see if they shut any down, change them, or start new trials. I think it's probably safe to assume Kad is not likely to be $10BB drug that totally replaces Herceptin any time soon and maybe never. The question remains will if be a $1BB, $2BB, $5BB or a high-priced dud.
We should also consider trading motivation before Jan 1 and after Jan 1. Normally, tax selling and window dressing would be finished. Friday's decline/debacle might generate more long tax selling. Shorts are now sitting on a huge gain. Will they wait until Jan to realize the gain (for window dressing and tax purposes), or might want to take the gain this year to offset their losses in other short positions? Will they want to wait another 2 years to see if immunotherapy and car-t totally replace ADC's, or even 2 weeks to see if the BOD fires Junius and hires Pien or another turnaround specialist to cut and sell?
Do we have a buyer that will pay a reasonable price? Every day I see private co's being acquired for $500MM-1BB that do't appear to have the potential of IMGN. Does IMGN have some technology that will make the next generation of ADC's better? If so, they better get out and start promoting it FAST and stop wasting shareholder dollars on any trials for old, toxic drugs that are me-too. Cut costs NOW!
If the BOD has not been listening to shareholder complaints, they will now. It's time for massive change, firing Junius, inserting a turnaround CEO, cost cutting and then a sale. I wonder if Roche was not intentionally vague to crush the shares and open IMGN to a low-priced acquisition. If they would have waited until Monday to announce, it would have saved me a bundle; this was painful.
I am hoping for next week, sold calls and puts in Dec that I am hoping will be worthless by tomorrow night. Hoping to sell more next week if the price and vol holds up.
Looks like the "event" may be occurring after Friday. 3224 Jan $8 puts have traded, which is roughly equal to the Dec OI $9 puts. Over 2000 Jan calls have traded. 1 day remains for the Dec options. Puts and calls still look juiced IMO.
the only thing I hate more than a weak, ineffective CEO is a greedy, selfish, shareholder unfriendly weak and ineffective biotech CEO. Who will save us from Jack and the bean counter?