I don't understand how expectations got so high, but very few launches have produced 10,000 patients, customers, whatever in the first full quarter. It's easy to cast doubt in the early part of the launch, particularly when we are waiting for coverage to expand. I think EXAS will be a great success when the private carriers start providing access. Until then, it's going to be volatile due to the large short position IMO.
They need the private/corp insurers to provide access. When that happens, volume will skyrocket. Until then, they are stuck with people from the govt sector. Not sure they can achieve high growth until we get more access. I hope they focus more on this and less on adding individual reps.
It does not cost 200,000/quarter to add a sales rep, more like $200/yr including benes. I think they need to focus on gaining access to Aetna, Cigna and similar, so millions more patients can gain access. I want to use the product ASAP, but don't want to pay $599 and I can't wait 2 more years for a check.
with all due respect, I recall AMFN doubling just about every year from 89 into the early 199o's, so you must be referring to earlier years? We do agree, management is inexperienced and unseasoned especially in the area of the financial markets. Jack and the bean counter are completely clueless regarding Wall Street, but maybe they are learning through trial and error with our money. Deerfield and another bio financial firm ate our lunch.
It's not a good deal if the partner can't market and sell. Yes, the financials of the deal were good, the selection of the partner was not. Longs want right sizing, we want to see the burn rate get to a a level that does not bring on further dilution and we want to see that any dead wood that is just feasting on the shareholders cash and not adding value out.
They had their fun yesterday, back to + today.
As I have been saying, EXAS is a LT story and launching a new product is difficult and takes time. Shorts are going to add a lot of vol while we wait for this to work out. The only concern I have is Insurance coverage. I want to use Cologuard, I can't get it now unless I pay full price. Until Aetna, Cigna, etc start reimbursement, the market will be somewhat less that it could be. I'm not sure if adding sales people is the right step until they get additional insurance coverage and that could take time.
Excellent posts, mainly because I agree with all of your points. There are many ways that could lead to a higher stock price, yet JL has not found the path. He's only looking at his wallet.
Not sure about $8 but it holds up better than most and I like no debt. I also bought some BBEP, which is not performing as well.
sell, but not to Eisai, they are not a quality company and I don't want their illiquid stock. If they want to offer $10+ in cash, I will take the deal.
good discussion folks, thanks. I did not listen to the call, was too busy watching EXAS crater, now starting to recover. If it's not one bad stock, it's another. Hanging in on both for now.
agreed, shorts had their fun, party looks to be over. They did manage to scare the heck out of longs, so it's unlikely a big run back to $30 is coming soon. Maybe $24-26, then some resistance. IMO, not advice.
The stock price got ahead of the fundamentals and it's likely some weak trading hands jumped on late, so this is a wash/shake out. Launch will take time and $. It's not going to be a over night home run, but seems like a great LT investment.
Those are usually a good buying opportunity IMO.
sad way to live, he#$%$ should grow up and move on to something more productive like getting a new job.
is that like a non event? Where do they get you HS drop out monkeys?
management doesn't have a clue about what to do and does not care as long as they get their free options and can pump the stock price up a few times a year and sell for a profit. They have a track record of 25+ years of clinical trial failure.