While we all agree the CEO and BOD are next to worthless and should be replaced, they have cash, products, technology, pipeline, partnered products, the company will be around for many years to come if they are not acquired first. The harder shorts push, the sooner they are acquired IMO.
I thought the call was slightly better than usual, there seemed to be a bit more prep. The CFO had a key line "at this price we are not eager to issue stock". Overall I thought the CFO did well, Dan was OK, Charlie did his usual stammer and mumble act, but had a few good comments. I am curious to know more about the analyst comments regarding the Roche CC mention of Kadcyla. I do agree, no major changes were noted in personnel, strategy, no new progress announced, so it's slow and steady for now. 853 is moving very slow. 529 info in Dec is likely to be very early stage, not much discussion about 289...
Shorts might force a sale if they keep the pressure on by attracting an activist. They painted the tape this morning with a little trade, let's see if they follow through. I think it's a good day for a trade. IMO as always.
added to the fact that they still don't have pricing, it takes time to send the product out, and then receive it back, add at least a week, maybe 2. Sales in 2014 will be minimal and costs will be growing. Has anyone other than me attempted to get Cologuard through their insurance plan? Relax, hold for the LT, but don't expect a rapid uptake in 2014.
First, revs and earnings are going to miss big IMO. Second, DJ will do his best to spin BS into gold and he might even sound good until the analysts start to ask their pointed questions. They better have their act together (prepare) and deliver some substance (no stammering, stuttering and mumbling).
IMGN shareholders are tired of fluff, false promises and talk about the future...
I think everyone (and their brother) knows the company will miss big and the short position has likely grown in anticipation of this big miss, so it's possible that early negativity and sales are met with some buying to cover/exit at some price. It might be a good day to buy any big dips unless they totally blow the call and don't deliver any real news.
Very interesting article in FierceBiotech this morning. Celgene is taking a stake, they have an interesting technology for developing next generation ADC's. I wonder how it compares to IMGN's new technology.
I think the even you have in CAPS, SMOKING CESSATION, is tie only event that can take the stock significantly higher in the next 3-6 months, maybe BPhen results will provide a small boost. The OREX pricing info is a concern, it might cut into short term growth in Obesity sales and limit the potential market size. If one blue pill + Phen is safer, more efficacious and around the same price, then it will be a winner in Obesity, but they will have to find more patients, play a long term game, reduce expenses...Either way, it seems to me that ARNA's costs are too high, burn rate is too high and they need to start getting some revs from the pipeline and grow sales.
It's not a bet against, it's a hedge IMO and I am sure they trade against their long position, sell calls, buy and sell puts.
Large put trade today, over 1000 Nov 25's have traded. OI is only 263, so this is a new position. Not sure if it was a buy,or sale, or combo with stock.
I have been trying to buy back some way out of the money calls I sold to take some profit for 2014 and have some flexibility in case there's a large increase. I would like to be free to sell about 1/4th of my position into any big move. No takers so far.
It takes time to get approval and pricing from each plan. As I mentioned, I called Cigna, or at least the Cigna ppl associated with my very large employer plan and they were not informed, it was not available for reimbursement yet. EXAS told me to try again after the Nov pricing event.
After seeing all of the insider sales (not that I blame them) I am wondering if a secondary is coming. I don't know if they need any cash at the present time, just wondering. I sold some higher-priced Nov calls for a little income, higher priced in case there's an acquisition, I don't want to lose too much of the upside. Some consolidation might be in order prior to the launch and sales that will start mostly next year. I don't expect much in Q4. All IMO, anything is possible.
bio-short thesis is always: Plan A) small biotech firms always screw something up and have a filing delay or...Plan B) if the filing goes well they predict a slow launch and talk about the inflated market cap. With a small biotech they have a high probability of either A or B. I believe the short is a BB hedge, so I am describing a typical large bio-short situation.
we may get some news??? you mean there might be some news made that someone on the IV board will find and post. IMGN never releases news. Let's see if they do a better job of preparing to handle analyst questions at the upcoming cc. Their recent performance on the calls has been terrible.
I think the bulk of the short position and large option OI is a hedge from BB's. IMO of course.
Clearly something is happening that's not yet known to investors. Let's play speculation. Is it:
1)Dan is retiring/being replaced and Howard Pien is taking over to turn around and sell IMGN? (my favorite)
2)Positive clinical development to be announced soon, internal pipeline, Kadcyla, partnership
3)Negative clinical development to be announced soon...
Secondary offering (my least favorite other than negative clinical)
4)Large owner giving up, taking the tax loss and moving on to a stock that might go UP!
5)Other??? add your speculation.
It's a game the shorts use to try and hold down the price. Not sure exactly how it works, but it seems to work well. Sold a few calls myself today, just on 1/10th of my position.
Not that IMGN longs don't have bigger problems to worry about...I was looking through Drugsurfer's posting history and noticed an old post from H&P. It's been 2 years since he posted.
Looks like a secondary is coming and then they follow with cheap exec option grants to take advantage of the low price. If they pull that again, I predict a shareholder lawsuit.
agree, cost could take some market share. Bel needs Phen. They might need to try the 1 Bel/day + phen approach to keep costs low, which would mean they will have to find 2x patients to stay even. Smoking better be positive, or we could be in for a long slog period of slow growth, cost cutting and losses.
has a Canadian Biotech co ever worked out well? Might as well buy a Canadian penny stock mining co. I think they have a higher probability of striking gold.
Thanks for pointing it out, I appreciate keeping up to date on large options transactions. Are you sure they were both sales?