please some pharma take my ARNA stock...at a fair price, not the short, beaten down price.
I would try to grab their attention earlier.
You've no doubt hear the term Death Panels. I'd like to recommend a story about how the government is damaging the health care of patients through a so called expert panel that has too much power and too little expertise and a potential conflict of interest. Meet the USPSTF (ironic the USPS part) then describe what they are and how their recent decision will lead to continued low screening rates. Talk about how cologuard is a break-through product it's less expensive than Colonoscopy, more patient friendly and about as accurate...
I will take $6-8 today to put an end to shareholder misery. We don't need another money-wasting partnership where the stock continues on for more years at $2 while we wait for something to happen.
With the current dividend. Costs are continuing to come down and output is hedged. Cash flow should remain positive for at least the next 2 years. IMO.
the only kind of news that will move this stock are clinical developments, which are end of next year or later or a buy out, which could come any time, but probably not likely until after any clinical progress. I'm ready to be out any time at a decent price.
In advance of the sale, he should cut deeper. No more low-priced dilutions. If he cuts deeper he will have time to wait a year for any significant new data. If not, ARNA will be negotiating from Fin weakness at the end of next year. We just need one solid offer to get the party started. Or, he can tell the market all options are on the table including a sale and the price should start to rise. I agree no company will offer 3x or more of the current price, so the stock price needs to get up to $4-5 before we can get an offer of $6-8+. I will be happy with anything that's $5+ if we get that withing 12 months. I know that's a low target, but it's 3x the current price and I'm tired of owning this stock, but too stubborn to sell at this price.
Lorc approval has been less than worthless for all involved so far. Maybe, some day if there's a positive health outcomes study that helps Belviq gain insurance coverage sales will increase and the drug will have value. So far, the costs far outweigh the revenues.
easily Hixson knows the shareholders want out at any fair price. I have no interest in another partnership where they get and burn another $50 or $100MM. Nobody is going to offer 6x the current price, the shareholders of the offering co would scream bloody murder. The stock would have to run first and for that we would need some new clinical dev news and progress IMO.
agree, this price seems to be a gift, but it's been the "falling knife" and death by 1000 cuts so far. One day, or over the next 12-24 months, several hundred % is very possible.
Just for fun and because I would like to have a CG screening and not a colonoscopy, I sent my insurer Cigna a claim appeal form (in advance) asking them to approve me for CG.
My read is they will cut, but not suspend. I'm not advising, that's just my guess. What dividend rate do you posters think is baked into the current price? I say about $.40/yr is baked in.
Let's play the dividend=price game.
.40/yr = current price stabilizes, or goes slightly higher
.50/yr and the stock price increases 10%-20%
.60/yr and the stock price goes up 25%-50%
If they suspend the stock price goes under $2 and then stabilizes at about $1.50.
Add into these price guesses any gain in the price of oil between now and then.
I think this also, but own many shares that are trading at 20% or 1/5th of what I paid. If I did not already have too much financial exposure I would be all over this.
timing and optics are terrible at a time where shareholders are losing everything. If they think they are in good shape, but some on the market and then come back with another proposal, less shares. IMO
That's my assessment (not advice) after talking to BBEP and assuming at least current prices hold for 24 months. 77% of production is hedged for 2016, maybe more if volume declines, so the market price in 2016 can't take the company under, sorry shorts and bashers. If price goes to $20 or 30 and stays there throughout 2017, all bets are off. At $55-60 next year, I expect they would be CF neutral or slightly positive. At $65-70 by 2017 the div might come back. These are my best guesses, not fact.
yes, this is exactly what I have been saying, they are making totally foolish economic choices for a commodity. They could sell less, make more and make more for longer by limiting their production. Market share is a senseless point and it's going to take down some people in the government of maybe Saudi, Venezuela and cause a lot of unrest.. I'm surprised Vlad is not making this point and going along with a joint cut. He does not seem stupid, but they are all behaving in an economically stupid way.
stupid question, but ASH is an oncology meeting. I was not award that Factor D was related to Oncology???
I would cut the div to .40/yr. or .1 per quarter and tell the market you can sustain that through at least the next year or longer at current prices if you want. I would tell the market all options are on the table for the cash saved by reducing the div. it could be used for liquidity, for acquiring property, for reducing debt. I would tell the market you intend to shrink the company (costs) to be cash flow positive and only produced what is hedged and save the rest for higher prices.
The price of oil can't stay low forever. It could stay low for another year, but by then supply will start to decline, maybe sooner. Demand continues to increase by 1-2% per year.
There's no reason MEMP should be trading at $3 IMO, but the market can be irrational in the short term. GL to longs!
Any info of the timing of the IIa trial data? The 24/7 article said this quarter, which ends in 2 weeks?
In biotech there's always significant downside risk and upside potential. I would say there's at least 50% downside if the phase IIa trial results are not good and the program is stopped. If the results are excellent I think the ST upside is also about 50% and the LT upside is several hundred percent. The question is should one hedge, or sell and then buy back at a higher price with less risk, or just hold. The large insider sale is a little concerning to me, any info or comments on that? I really can't take another 50% loss, I've had several already this year.
If oils stays at $40 for another 24 months+ the company will be in trouble, but not before. If I didn't already have plenty of stock, I would buy at this price, it's better than a LT option, more like a 24 month option with no time premium. Nice deal!