worst nightmare, breakthrough and affirmed on tract to file. I won't say that confirms approval, but unless the mess something up, it's looking pretty good. Next move for shorts is to try and convince ACAD investors the product will not be a commercial success, assuming they are not called in and forced to cover today.
Some positive news regarding the BT drug listed on the IV board must be responsible for moving IMGN. They are excelling at not reporting news developments. Finally a break-out, maybe a move to $14, dare I dream?
If you want good news, just go to the IV web site. The company never announces any positive news for fearl of being acquired and losing their jobs.
Stock is falling back now, jinxed by all of the positive and hopeful comments. Sub $12 close and key reversal lower now. Let's keep it negative until there's an acquisition.
Shorts trying to exit and limit the damage, maybe some speculation that breakthrough will lead to acquisition interest, or trigger a deal that was already in waiting??? Either way, shorts are toast and could possible fuel a rally to $30.
BT is fairly new. Can you find even one that was awarded BT status the was denied approval? I think the odds are very low. There can always be a delay if they have manufacturing issues, other technical filing problems but I think a perm failure would be very rare. IMO of course.
Stock is a terrible under performer, shareholders must keep the heat up to demand change!!! What next, do we need to contact the large owners and ask them to contact the non-responsive, irresponsible management.
are you holding EXAS? It's up big again. Thank God I sold my IMGN trading shares (at a big loss) and some other shares in ARNA to buy a bunch of EXAS.
Depends on the approvals/indications. For PDP maybe $500-800MM (a guess and that might be just US) for ADP, $BB's. We should take a look at the analyst predictions and their assumptions to get a better estimate. Most biotech firms still in high growth mode are valued at about 6x reasonable forward revs, but not estimated peak way in the future if all goes well...
I understand the question. Many of the BT designations were for Oncology drugs which take years to develop, maybe 2+ years for the large phase III, so I think most have not been decided on. Can anyone name a failure, major delay, etc that made the price drop???
LLY needs a CNS pipeline badly IMO. Shire/ABBV also looking to grow, acquiring products/companies. There's no shortage of potential acquirers. Saying we will go alone is a good strategy to max the price for any would-be acquirer. I would take $40 now, but it will take more IMO if/after the product is approved. Bio-shorts like to sell after approval counting on a weak (botched) launch, so there could be a war ahead. Ultimately, I think ACAD is acquired.
Not a fan of the CVR deal, but I understand the idea of risk and reward sharing. Investors prefer not to wain and often sell their shares prior to the end date. That allows the buyer to come in and scoop a bunch of shares in advance to avoid CVR costs. Since the ADP market has such a large potential, it would be a big gamble to pay full value in advance, so maybe no deals until that becomes clearer. I think a smart buyer could come make a $40 offer then sweeten it up to $45-50 and get the whole deal now without a significant CVR.
Has the company closed for the summer, maybe the past 2 years (except R&D)? Someone should inform them (CEO, IR) that No news is Not good news in the development stage biotech industry. No news is better than news of another Phase II failure, or tox issues, but really, it's been 25 years; can we get a product through phase II successfully without Roche??? How about some early human trial data, some news of efficacy/signs of life? WTH is going on over there?
thanks, not impressive, not terrible, trend continues, or maybe it flattens out around this level. Not very interesting for long investors. ARNA has failed to attract sufficient institutional buying interest. Weak CEO, weak IR, poor communications in general.
Many potential buyers at $40+. Some Directors sold shares...again. I wish they would stop doing that. If they are selling at this price maybe they don't think it's worth $40+ any time soon. Don't shoot the messenger, glad price is up.