I believe they said "similar to what was seen in prior trials". Clearly Kad has an advantage over Her+Chemo and Perj in side effects and QOL. Let's see if they make any changes to the trials. Clearly ADC's have some advantages, but to make a big leap something needs to be improved, either the linkers, or the manufacturing process. I am not an expert, but I have heard people say there's a variable number of toxic molecules linked to each MAb in the current process and that adds to toxicity, or prevents optimal dosing. Not sure it that has been improved in the newer products from 289 and on, or not . It appears no for 529 and 853 based on what I've seen so far. We need to know more about the current products and status of next gen improvements.
I have been investing in biotech for 25 years and typically despise and rail against the greedy, ignorant execs that run many biotech firms. It's so refreshing to be invested in a company run by intelligent, shareholder-friendly executives. Congrats and thanks to the EXAS execs for the great job they have done and continue to do for their shareholders. May God Bless them!
Let's assume in terms of efficacy, Kad = Kad + Perj = Her+Toxic chemo mix. It seems to me in terms of efficacy Perj failed to add efficacy to Kad. I believe they have trial results where Perj + Her + the toxic chemo mix did well in terms of efficacy?
In terms of safety, we all know QOL for Kad is superior to both of these alternatives. Given reasonable pricing, I think MD's and patients would probably prefer Kad. Roche can price their drugs in their own self interest, price Kad out with low prices for their alternatives because if efficacy is similar Ins co's prefer cheaper/assuming the side effects are not adding to overall cost. We will have to keep an eye on Kadcyla trials and see if they shut any down, change them, or start new trials. I think it's probably safe to assume Kad is not likely to be $10BB drug that totally replaces Herceptin any time soon and maybe never. The question remains will if be a $1BB, $2BB, $5BB or a high-priced dud.
We should also consider trading motivation before Jan 1 and after Jan 1. Normally, tax selling and window dressing would be finished. Friday's decline/debacle might generate more long tax selling. Shorts are now sitting on a huge gain. Will they wait until Jan to realize the gain (for window dressing and tax purposes), or might want to take the gain this year to offset their losses in other short positions? Will they want to wait another 2 years to see if immunotherapy and car-t totally replace ADC's, or even 2 weeks to see if the BOD fires Junius and hires Pien or another turnaround specialist to cut and sell?
Do we have a buyer that will pay a reasonable price? Every day I see private co's being acquired for $500MM-1BB that do't appear to have the potential of IMGN. Does IMGN have some technology that will make the next generation of ADC's better? If so, they better get out and start promoting it FAST and stop wasting shareholder dollars on any trials for old, toxic drugs that are me-too. Cut costs NOW!
If the BOD has not been listening to shareholder complaints, they will now. It's time for massive change, firing Junius, inserting a turnaround CEO, cost cutting and then a sale. I wonder if Roche was not intentionally vague to crush the shares and open IMGN to a low-priced acquisition. If they would have waited until Monday to announce, it would have saved me a bundle; this was painful.
I am hoping for next week, sold calls and puts in Dec that I am hoping will be worthless by tomorrow night. Hoping to sell more next week if the price and vol holds up.
Looks like the "event" may be occurring after Friday. 3224 Jan $8 puts have traded, which is roughly equal to the Dec OI $9 puts. Over 2000 Jan calls have traded. 1 day remains for the Dec options. Puts and calls still look juiced IMO.
the only thing I hate more than a weak, ineffective CEO is a greedy, selfish, shareholder unfriendly weak and ineffective biotech CEO. Who will save us from Jack and the bean counter?
amen brother. Jack operates like an owner, a very stupid owner that should find a smarter owner and get out of the way. He's too clueless to know he's a dope in all things communications and business.
And that's what I think of Jack, the bean counter and the other execs because they reward themselves while the shareholders get a sharp stick in the eye. It's shameful!
Cancer Immunotherapy is in a bubble. All we need is some tie in to Immunotherapy. IMGN has a plan for Immunotherapy, IMGN has some new technology that works like Immunotherapy, ADC's work well with Immunotherapy, the new technology works like immunotherapy. We need a link (real or perceived) to Immunotherapy and the price will double, then I can sell and stop being a pain in your rears. Win:Win. Let's go!
heavily shorted, 300 pt rally, end of tax selling, highly oversold, seemingly undervalued, news coming, take your pick. They will think of some way to screw it up soon, so don't get too happy just yet. Hoping for a move back to $12+ by Jan on any good Kadcyla news. IMO.
ARNA can't afford to be sending $ back to Eisai. At the current, out-of -control rate of spending, they are going to run out of money and start the low-priced dilution cycle/death spiral again. Flippin morons!
It's been a strange 2 weeks, I hope the news is delayed, the call and puts expire worthless and we get to do it all over again on Monday with high premium. Somehow, it never works out that way. For many years, there's been very little risk to selling calls. Maybe the company execs and BOD will finally sell, but it's not been a bankable prediction so far. Looks like a nice move so far today is stalling again. The very best scenario is a sale disclosed on Monday morning.
How is it possible that one can say they will re-apply soon and another says they will not? Because the company can't speak clearly and doesn't do things right the first time. This management are a bunch of clowns when it comes to communication and business. They can only do one thing, maybe 2, R and some D. They are also good at paying themselves before the shareholders. It's very annoying!
If the ARNA BOD and Jack were fired by the largest shareholders that would make the stock price advance. If sales improve...if Business Development is done and cash comes in...I'm sure our the crack BD team lead by the very attractive ball girl is close to striking a deal any day now. Where is that new IR guy hiding out?
It's really hard to get these entrenched CEO's out, they think they own the company, they surround themselves with yes people and put friends on the BOD. Do any of the ARNA sr. execs even have a business degree? Even the CFO is just a bean counter/CPA. They have no financial/business sense and are going to start needing money soon if they don't cut costs, or license something for some up front cash.