they should not assume anything, but this would certainly be much needed and welcome news. We are losing 5-6% every day and it's really getting OLD.
yes, this is essentially what I said my my comment to USPS, let the MD's and patients decide. BTW, the company is very responsive, KC even replied to my email expressing disappointment with the call yesterday. He says he is confident. I responded that I/we will know he's confident when we see some open market purchases from management and/or the BOD. Let's watch the filings and see.
this is our only hope for a return of our investment now unless USPS changes their view. The call was a disaster, KC was tone deaf regarding cash flow. All options need to be on the table and management needs to buy some stock!
the problem is, they need about 4x that amount at the current cost structure just to break even. Fixed costs and customer acquisition costs are too high. Looks like I'm on another sinking ship WTH!
he said they are going forward based on expectations for no change, he said it's unlikely they will make a change, but there's limited history, so it's difficult to predict.
clearly he's being cautious with a few sprinkles of optimism due to the quality of the product. They are going to have to grow revs faster because costs are also growing. I don't think he said anything that will cause shorts to rush out and cover anytime soon, which is disappointing. He killed a nice rally
KC made a rev forecast for next year that was "cautious". Now he says "reason to be cautious" regarding payers. They need high growth to offset high fixed costs. They grew 60% Q over Q and the forecast is for only about 50% total growth next year. Some of this is 4Q seasonality, lower tests over the holidays (next Q growth coule be low). He's being conservative, but we need confidence about growth to turn shorts into buyers. Looks like more time in the $8 range should be expected.
so true, I've been watching this for years. Sometimes they are right about a company, other times they drive the stock price so low and the cost of capital so high that a company runs out of capital and time. Nice to see a good gain this morning. It would be great to hear about 1) progress with the USPS, but they probably won't be able to discuss this it's to sensitive or 2) progress with other payers.
Eisai would not pay even $100MM for Belviq they are trying to get away, or slow their losses unless/until they can market it for diabetes. They can't make enough money just for weight loss at this time. IMO
hopefully a BO, but doubt it will be $10+ unless there's some blockbuster news late next year. If there's a BO sooner probably more like $4-5, which is also fine with me at this point. I sold, took a tax loss and then bought back in for another round of losses dough!
looks more like a stalemate, longs are afraid to sell low (or buy more) shorts are hoping to never cover. Unless/until there's a BO or significant clinical dev news, this will just move around in the $2 range IMO.
I'm sure the large owners are pushing for this, it's just a matter of when and at what price. They can either sell low soon, or wait a year for some clinical data and hope something hits. If they were planning to wait a year, I think the cuts would have been larger. Nobody really knows. If I were short I would cover because biotech stocks (without debt) can hang on at $1-2 for many years.
dreamer, it will be a miracle if we ever see $4-5 IMO. I hope something good will happen, but it's really not looking good.
Any business school grad with a few years of experience could have come up with this plan. It's only the first step, a half measure and way later than it should have been. Eisai is not going to fund Belviq for anything that requires a large investment. Maybe they can get one of the smoking drug makers to do a combo study?
Bel-phen is dead thanks to FDA. They really suk, big time.
Cuts in Switz are long overdue. If they can't improve the utilization and cash flow of that plant they need to sell it.
I expect either a sale, or a new CEO. The longer they take to announce a CEO, the more likely they sell. If they hire a CEO it better be a turnaround specialist that can evaluate a pipeline and move drugs forward, or find partners and/or turnaround and sell.
Cost cutting should have done this a year ago, but JL's not a real CEO. The cuts were a little light, but I think that is because they wanted to leave some room for a potential new CEO to make strategic decisions. I think most of this info is already known to the market.
I doubt the data is very accurate and I would bet it's down much further by the next reading. Shorts probably shorted in large amounts to keep the price down, then started buying dips.