I don't fight the market makers and big volume. If the market makers decide to run BIOC they will let it cross $4.10 and at that time I'd become a rather large buyer. I'll wait as till that time if ever this game is being controlled. I wish longs well and if you can cross $4.10 I'll be adding shares. If not I'll just watch as I'm holding from very low entry.
Search with BING on this: MESOBLAST PROVIDES UPDATE ON CLINICAL then look at the PDF file - take note at this part " The Company expects to have a readout by the end of the year on whether the primary endpoint of day 28 remission in biologic-refractory patients has been achieved, whether there is evidence of efficacy in high-risk groups such as those with fistulizing disease, and whether repeat dosing can result in longer-term maintenance of effect."
Key in that: whether repeat dosing can result in longer-term maintenance of effect. All eyes when they make that determination.
gibis, You mention Pfizer and it's relationship with Athersys and the fact it seems to be continuing. To that I agree. In the past Athersys management has mentioned wanting to move on towards a phase II switching over to Crohns Disease from Ulcerative Colitis.
What we know is that phase II for UC was safe and that further trial won't be stopped due to safety issues. What we know from Mesoblast: Preliminary data from two interim analyses of its own phase 3 trial for CD provided encouraging results. I'm sure Pfizer is keeping a close eye as is Athersys on the Mesoblast trial using Prochymal.
We know that the dosing regimen left a lot to be desired in the UC trial. Today, more is known about how MAPCs work and how they can be programmed to home if necessary to the injury site.
Angiotech is once partner worth mentioning - Angiotech had been helping fund clinical trials to test Athersys' MultiStem therapy in patients who had suffered heart attacks. The phase I trial went well.
Angiotech had some financial issues and Athersys made sure they retained the right to MultiStem in AMI in a deal that benefited both parties.
These are important clues and there are some I'm surprised that non have picked up from recent news. I'm trying to verify something that recently came out that if true really excites!!
I think your line of thinking is well grounded. There are a few more investors you missed and many joint efforts. The bottom line is Athersys is well connected and undervalued relative to the science and real interest in the company.
gibis, Very well thought out post. I would expect Athersys sellers remorse for those selling shares in bulk today. Obviously I believe the science backs success in Ischemic Stroke and now we have a Japanese partner who obviously agrees and put a $10 million dollar bet on it. They have good scientists in the Japanese medical field. I'll side with them on this without any arm twisting. I also believe Athersys has more partnering news coming very soon. All my opinion.
The way I read it is this... Athersys won't need to hold an offering till after the stock is trading much higher AND after the data is released in April. Have a buy set at 32000 shares ARCA routed at $2.83 in case pipelight's buddies wish to sell today. That bid won't be pulled so count that as the bottom or I get what I consider extra shares at a very good price.
That was an early in development deal and this is a mid to end stage development deal. The fruit on the tree is not only closer to being attained it's a bigger obtainable market. Don't forget a GvHD partnership is also coming. Athersys stocks will trade over $15.40 a share in 2015.
Don't forget Roche holds a majority stake in Chugai... Roche also bid 10 billion for full control. Athersys... secured a patent for the MAPC and GvHD in Japan. Big things coming... At hersys is the next Osiris by default as Osiris handed off much of the business to Mesoblast. At hersys will become a better capitalized Osiris and eventually surpass Mesoblast. American companies that follow FDA guidelines always come out ahead when the science is good.
Agree... that's why the $15.40 comes after data (touchdown). ATHX is now the first round draft pick with many bids being offered and teams jockeying to trade up for a first pick.
This is the first of a stream of good news... Obviously to give 10 million up front this close to data release spells success. You did not see this without Chugai knowing the science. This is non dilute share funding and more money coming. This is great news. $4'S were reached in the previous run up to ulcerative colitis... doubt was holding this from a $7 to $8 run up on a much bigger market for stroke. This news just took 90% of doubt away $6 is coming before data. $15.40 After. IMO
liam Lehman Jr. on 1/13/2015 Athersys is initiating the AMI trial now.
Graft-versus-Host Disease (GvHD) - expect a phase 2/3 study. In January 2014 Athersys announced new patents in Japan covering GvHD. The FDA provided orphan status to Athersys for this indication. Click: Phase 1 results touted
Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) - Experimental Neurology, Investigators say that IV injection MultiStem therapy provided neurovascular protection in a preclinical model for brain injury.
Progressing towards a phase I/II clinical trial in multiple sclerosis and completing the pre-clinical work for spinal cord injuries.
Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) - This program may still head towards a more advanced study. Down but not out.
RTI Surgical's Map3 - A treatment utilizing a license granted from Athersys for the MAPCs used in aiding bone healing.
Non-MultiStem pipeline depth (non - Stem Cell)
Obesity drug candidate with fewer side effects - the probable outcome compared to drugs marketed today. This will be a highly selective agonist at the serotonin receptor 5HT2c site.
Random Activation of Gene Expression (RAGE) program - This program isolates compounds for potential drug development. Bristol Myers Squib has paid Athersys more than once for screened compounds.
The above list for Athersys is actually more extensive... Athersys has potential well beyond where it's market cap is recognizing. What's in potential? Ask the Alnylam investor who knows that Alnylam has marketed nothing to date or just take a look at Alnylam and the 8.50 billion market cap.
continued from above:
share price to at least $15.40 in short order on successful phase II data from the ischemic stroke trial.
Partnering news is becoming exceedingly likely in areas like:
GvHD which is in the process of completing a phase 2/3 registration study design. That, however, is not where potential partnerships end. There is growing evidence that companies involved in RNAi, RNA, and mRNA technologies want to combine forces with adult stem cell companies. Don't under estimate that value. RNAi company Alnylam trades over $100 a share without anything marketed. It's often about potential as is the case with Alnylam (ALNY).
Look at this potential:
Pipeline depth - MultiStem
Ischemic Stroke (IS) - Awaiting phase 2 data Q1 2015
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) - Grant just awarded to support a phase 2a clinical study in the United Kingdom.
Polymer patches for Diabetic Foot Ulcers - (DFUs) - are a significant and rapidly growing complication of diabetes and its effects on wound healing. Over half of diabetic patients who develop a single ulcer will subsequently develop another ulcer of which the majority will become chronic non-healing ulcers. One-third will progress to lower extremity amputation. Over the past decade, the outcomes for patients with DFUs ulcers have not improved, despite advances in wound care. Successful treatment of diabetic foot ulcers is hindered by the lack of targeted therapy that hones in on the healing processes dysregulated by diabetes. Stem cells are a promising treatment for DFUs as they are capable of targeting, as well as bypassing, the underlying abnormal healing mechanisms and deranged cell signaling in diabetic wounds and promote healing.
Bone marrow-derived MAPCs appear to synthesize higher amounts of collagen and several growth and angiogenic factors, when compared to native dermal fibroblasts, indicating a potential use in accelerating wound healing.
Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) - According to Will
For those who listened to news conferences before the ulcerative colitis trial, you will remember Gil down played the trial frequently warning "MultiStem won't work in every application".
This is not the case with ischemic stroke. In fact Gil's said the following:
(On February 10th, 2015) at the 17th Annual BIO CEO and Investor Conference held in New York: "This trial is likely to be successful for a variety of reasons".
Even more recently WST (wall_street_titan) points out correctly Gil just said: "We believe we will have SIGNIFICANT EFFECT here."
Investors should know this trial was proven so safe that it was recommended Athersys use the higher dose for the remainder of the trial a ways back. This will likely also as shown pre-clinically mean more efficacy.
Here is news all investors should know about -
For almost three years now, stroke victims at Erlanger's clinic who meet certain criteria can have stem cell treatment through a study funded by Athersys Inc., of Cleveland, Ohio. The stem cells come from the bone marrow of healthy donors and they're transformed in a New Jersey laboratory into cells similar to brain neurons.
Patients taking part in the trial at Erlanger receive a dose of up to 1.2 billion stem cells, which comes in a single bag and looks like a bag of brownish-colored blood plasma. Six people have chosen to have the stem cells injected at Erlanger — which doesn't cost them anything, since Athersys pays for it.
"It's like 'why not?'" said Katrina Barton, the certified clinical research coordinator who helps Devlin oversee the study. "We've seen some results that have been very impressive. The thing that's impressed me the most is the improvement at day 30."
Further, Athersys may be able to obtain breakthrough designation and consequently file a NDA on the phase II data alone. That could really make things interesting for the share price going forward. That fact and the potential accelerated pathway to market in Japan will reset the