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SIGA Technologies, Inc. Message Board

biojax 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 24, 2015 12:47 PM Member since: Jan 14, 2015
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  • See article at the Biotech Investing Zone. Biojax web site

  • Reply to

    Maxim Group $9 (info)

    by biojax Jan 23, 2015 9:31 AM
    biojax biojax Jan 23, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    less than 2 days). The trial is completely enrolled across 27 U.S. sites.
    Our conclusion: Good data in stroke should be transforming for Athersys and could drive a valuation inflection for investors. Moving MultiStem to the clinic for ARDS with non-dilutive funding represents additional upside.
    We extend our model from 2018 to 2024 and discount back at 30% in addition to a 75% risk to our therapeutic model to reflect the early stage of development

  • Athersys (ATHX) PT Lifted to $9 at Maxim Group

    Maxim Group analyst Jason Kolbert reiterated a Buy rating and raised his price target on Athersys (NASDAQ: ATHX) to $9.00 (from $7.00)

    Kolbert highlights:

    Athersys will receive $3M in non-dilutive funding from the United Kingdom-based "Cell Therapy Catapult" non-profit center to fund a phase IIa trial of MultiStem in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARDS patients suffer from widespread lung inflammation that can often lead to death.
    Expanding MultiStem to ARDS shows the plasticity of these cells beyond stroke due to their capacity to both alter the immune response and support tissue regeneration.
    Athersys is closing in on a major milestone with stroke data from the MultiStem phase II trial coming in 1Q15. Athersys may have found the sweet spot in stroke treatment timing (24 hours to

  • The range has been $1.92 - $2.15.... The $2.15 came first and many traders who are also investors (if they hold a core they trade around) sold a portion to try and gain shares back on a consolidating pull back. This consolidation and range is indicative of heavy accumulation forming. YES - this is a very bullish sign and like others I'll not be surprised if Athersys shares close higher than the high of the day today.

    Athersys will see some volume days of over 10 million shares in a day before the data gets released, this is just the start the real fun begins once Athersys shares break over $3 and they will. IMO

  • Reply to

    Price Target

    by neii Jan 20, 2015 5:05 PM
    biojax biojax Jan 21, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    arkasious, Athersys won't be hurting for money after a run up into the data release. Though I don't like offerings that come sooner than needed, they often do just that. Athersys has a history of doing them in methods that don't undercut share price. Lets hope they hold off till the stocks over $5 this go. Maybe they've learned more is often counter productive. Less takes in more when the price is higher.

  • Reply to

    Price Target

    by neii Jan 20, 2015 5:05 PM
    biojax biojax Jan 20, 2015 6:58 PM Flag

    gibis, You put some accurate thought into the above post and that's why I'm responding. I wish to explain something after reading your post. I agree Ischemic Stroke is why we are invested, however, if as most believe the price goes way up ahead of data (and it should for good reason) dropping below $1 is not a reality on a fail and certainly not "for good" if it did. Athersys does have other uses for MAPCs. Uses such as Map3 (MAPCs) by RTI Surgical have been used successfully, MAPCs should also do well at treating certain things like foot ulcers. Outside of MultiStem Athersys has its RAGE program and its got an Obesity drug candidate that would bring some excitement with a partner.

    One thing some investors forget is that with a run up to $6 ahead of the data release a drop back under $2 would be severe let alone your under $1 call. We are not talking about a drop from todays price on data release... Agreed? That is why the risk reward favors longs greatly (more upside than down).

    Not all of MultiStems programs would be severely effected going forward in a "fail" (Map3 and future foot ulcer treatment). Athersys does have indications outside of MultiStem as I've mentioned. "YES" some of the bigger hopes such as AMI and GvHD would suffer on a "fail" for IS. Athersys would tighten the hatches and survive it.

    Athersys will be here for a long time even on a "fail".

    "YES" we are here for the Ischemic Stroke data and I believe it will be statistically significant data. These are my opinions and I've done a lot of research.

    Great post and it was worth responding to.

  • Reply to

    Unsolicited Praise

    by dalek_kelad Jan 20, 2015 1:16 PM
    biojax biojax Jan 20, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    The part that is important is the 30 days improvement mention as it sounds like the same positive results in a preclinical trial where improvement was seen at day 28. This tells investors who know how to listen that when they say some it probably means the NON PLACEBO GROUP GIVEN MULTISTEM.... coincidence? I think NOT!

  • Edison Equity Research's price targets look spot on ahead of data essentially because they qualified them with odds.

    Breaking the Edison "ahead of data" odds down:
    $3.55 if only a 20% chance of success ahead of data = essentially a $12.78 per share price target after data if a statistical 10% better effect or more than placebo is the primary outcome.

    $7.70 if only a 50% chance of success ahead of data target = essentially a $15.40 per share price target after data if a statistical 10% better effect or more than placebo is the primary outcome.

    On positive date 700% from current prices is a real likelihood at some point.. 350% from this price could be seen ahead of the data release if new investors start looking at already performed clinical data because it points to a better than 50% odds off success being a reality.

    One catalyst that could move ATHX shares up fast is: Official news from Athersys in regards to the initiation of the AMI trial. Mr. Lehmann did say it was now being initiated.

    There are many other potential catalysts: RTI may clear up the FDA questions in regards to its bone graft using Map3 technology meeting the regulator pathways set forth. More on Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome coming from Athersys could also serve as catalyst. There really is a long list of "potentials". No one trick poney here.

    The next 2.5 months should be exciting as all eyes are on Athersys's self owned trial for Ischemic Stroke and the data it will produce.

    On any data outcome that meats its endpoint a rapid pathway to market in Japan could be in the works.

    Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALNY) was the last biotech as exciting... ALNY traded as low as $9.69 on May 4th 2012 and ALNY had many detractors who never imagined the $100 plus share price that's a reality today.

  • Scientific fact MAPCs have an effect on splenocytes when they directly contact them.

    MAPCs have exciting results in animal models when treating traumatic brain injury as well as stroke. This is encouraging because Ischemic Stroke is a form of brain injury.

    Intravenously administered MAPCs did not cross the blood/brain barrier in preclinical rodent models. Since immune cells did and can cross the blood/brain barrier for a short period of time after a traumatic brain injury and cause autoimmunity, this result shows that the MAPCs are quelling inflammation through “paracrine” mechanisms (paracrine means that molecules are secreted by the cells and these secreted molecules elicit various responses from nearby cells). One preclinical trial spent 18 months looking for MAPCs in the brain. There was little to no engraftment there.

    Rather than entering the brain, the MAPCs set up shop in the spleen, a giant reservoir of T and B cells. The MAPCs change the spleen’s output to anti-inflammatory cells and cytokines, which communicate with immune cells in the brain—microglia—and change their response to injury from hyper-to-anti- inflammatory. The cells alter the innate immune response to injury.

    The MAPCs in these studies were human MAPCs as required by the FDA. They wanted to test the same cells that would be used in human trials before being used on humans. Animals treated with 1,000,000 viable MAPCs showed a statistically significant, sustained improvement in both locomotor and neurological functioning over the entire 8 week course of the experiment for Ischemic Stroke. The therapeutic effect, moreover, does not require immunosuppression.

    Could there be more than just the spleen at play "YES"... I'm banking on the connection with the spleen for this trial and the other unknown healing properties supported by science for Ischemic Stroke. The MAPC seems well suited to have statistically significant results in this trial. The science is a matter of record.

  • MultiStem - works through favorable pathways for stroke treatment.

    Past clues that this trial had higher regard than the Ulcerative Colitis trial in Gil's mind. Remember the video interviews where Gil was asked about Ulcerative Colitis? If you remember that you should recall Gil liked to shift the topic over to the stroke trial. He did not like talking about UC.

    Even in a USA Biotech investor article the fact was mentioned that down the road Athersys might be able to develop an intestinal patch using the plastic nature of the MAPC cell. In easy to understand terms... I did not like the current approach for treating severe Ulcerative Colitis. Pfizer is also not to be trusted and they have no hand in this stroke trial. This will be a 100% Athersys owned outcome.

    Food for thought.

    Is this a safe area to buy? The conclusion here is "YES". Why? This price is reflective of a no faith in either trial... meaning a fail is already baked into this price. An AMI trial is a reality now and again not all the eggs are in one basket.

    When shares are kept down this long it's a huge indication the large players have loaded in advance of what they think are going to be good results. Think about it... why are 100k showing on the sell? It's to hold down the price while certain investors are buying.

    Just pointing out the obvious... at least IMO

  • Reply to

    Announcement later in the year with Pfizer

    by brody_pierce Jan 14, 2015 9:20 AM
    biojax biojax Jan 14, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    Many industry giants like Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPG), Merk & Co. (NYSE: MRK), Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Roche Holding AG (OTC: RHHBY) are interested in immunotherapy. Consequently they all earnestly seek this new elixir for disease.

    Actually, Shire may have to take a back seat in it's search for that elixir because it just spent its entire $1.6bn windfall from the AbbVie hep C drug– and then some – on a potentially risky company with only one proven product. That company was its Nasdaq-listed rival, NPS Pharmaceuticals. Shire shelled out an eye-catching $5.2 billion for a company with a mere $200m in revenue! That should make some think about what Athersys might command one day should say Pfizer decide to make a bid.

  • biojax biojax Jan 14, 2015 12:20 AM Flag

    One point I've yet to see made is the fact that 30 days out sounds very much like the same preclinical results found and published in 2012. Check the Athersys website and look for the University of Texas Health Science Center results that showed brain tissue loss reduction 28 days out. Something very interesting IMO

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