Hit the wires an hour ago. CNN and Fox now reporting.
Buy all the CERS you can.
Company is profitable with double digit year over year growth, $250 million cash in the bank, and insurers signing up to cover FoundationOne and FoundationOneHeme in large numbers.
It got a lot of press, and had zero effect on reimbursement and coverage. Today's USPSTF will have no effect on Cologuard sales - Medicare and private insurers are already covering the test. It's unfortunate if you sold your shares today for a loss, as the USPSTF will not effect Exact's sales going forward. It's also likely that USPSTF will get pressured to simply call out Cologuard with an A rating as Barron's suggests this evening. After all, any screen is better than no screening, verses treatment costs for late stage CRC.
I picked up 1k shares just over $10 today.
So the collaboration is worth more than $250 million in milestone payments, and Blueprint has about $180 million in the bank. Seems that if BLU-285 and 554 get some traction in clinic this year, Alexion could just choose to purchase BPMC outright, why bother to make milestone payments? Thoughts?
I know the intent was to treat homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) and heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH), but I also noticed "clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD)" added as an indication as well.
That would certainly broaden the patient pool significantly as determination of ASCVD would be a more subjective clinical measure than a specific genetic test for one of the other two indications. This would seem to be a huge advantage over Praluent. Any cardiologists here to comment?
"Repatha is indicated as an adjunct to diet and maximally tolerated statin therapy for the treatment of adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) or clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), who require additional lowering of LDL-C; and as an adjunct to diet and other LDL-lowering therapies for the treatment of patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH), who require additional lowering of LDL-C. The effect of Repatha on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality has not been determined."
Interesting, so you think Roche will come knocking for the remaining shares at some point? Provide a little more context on the Roche/Illumina deal and how that might play out here. Thanks.
Great post. Agree on all your points. Typically I keep tights stops, but FMI is a different story. No doubt I will be able to sell it for more than $50, so I'm happy to buy at these prices while people play games with a couple million shares that are available to trade. Bottom line, if Roche and major institutions are holding 98% of the outstanding shares they'll be able to engineer the mother of all short squeezes to move this over $50. Roche will get there money back and then some. You can count on that.
The SPA from the FDA received last week places them one step closer to drug approval with a therapy that has wide applications in CNS disorders besides SRSE. $150 is the current target. Assuming SAGE doesn't get acquired, they could easy achieve $350-400 on a pre-split basis with 3-4 indications for SAGE-547. SE provides 4 different grade levels alone, add to that PPD. $$$
Buying on a dip after an earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance, that's how it's done.
Link on yahoo.
Epilepsy and PPD just the beginning. SAGE has the potential to be a huge player in this space years from now - provided they don't get purchased before that. Reminds me of Vertex back in the late 90's (now a 30 Billion dollar company).
Non-inferior simply means that eravacycline performs as well as current standard of therapy. In this case it was compared to levofloxacin. What we'd also expect is that eravacycline would be available to use against levofloxacin resistant bacteria, providing an alternate therapy where one doesn't exist. Further, the data seemed to suggest that the responder outcomes in the ITT arm seemed to respond about 20% better to eravacycline vs levofloxacin. You couldn't ask for better phase 3 results IMO, especially with the recent focus from the FDA around fast tracking antibiotic therapy's.
Forget non-inferiority compared to levofloxacin, in many cases eravacycline appears to be superior. Today's results de-risk TTPH. This is pretty much a buy and hold for acquisition. Perhaps after the pivotal portion of IGNITE2 completes or just ahead of NDA Filing. Comments?
The design of the trial was flawed. Unsurprising that it failed. However it doesn't change how the drug performs. A trial designed to assessment cardic parameters would have succeded. I can't explain why they choose time to rehospitilation as a primary endpoint. So while a Phase 2 trial failure is never good the drug itself is just fine. This will likely be discussed in the call. There is to much interest in improving CHF outcomes to give up. That will be the theme here.
Conference in Miami.
The general sense is that Tetraphase will be bought before Phase 3 results come out. Brean's report confirmed prevailing street sentiment. Any thoughts on what a deal might look like? Prrojected sales x2 seems reasonable given what we saw with Merck and Actavis, but when you add in CRE, it seems the value may be higher. Assuming eravacycline has the potential to be a billion dollar drug (particularly given CRE efficacy), that would put us around a $74 buyout. Thoughts on who might be interested? It wasn't mentioned in Brean's report Friday, but perhaps Glaxo or Pfizer would be interested to compete with Merck's acquisition of Cubist.