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AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACRX) Message Board

bioschrett 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2014 11:14 PM Member since: Jan 9, 2014
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  • bioschrett bioschrett Jul 17, 2014 11:14 PM Flag

    Also interesting (and maybe not relevant at all), but I've been keeping an eye on the number of employees they have on LinkedIn. In the last few weeks they've added nearly 6 employees in what appears to be mostly sales and some marketing.
    Sure, they should be ramping up regardless, but this is a pretty confident pace to be bringing people on so close to the decision. If they were very unsure they'd likely have the prospects sign contracts that were approval-contingent, so the offer would be valid and employment begin only upon receiving a nod from the FDA by 7/27.

  • bioschrett bioschrett Jul 17, 2014 10:50 PM Flag

    This reminds me of back in December. Stock tanked some 40% in a month so everyone was screaming about how news had leaked that the FDA wouldn't be accepting the NDA and that the company was done for. All it ended up being was a tracing of the rest of the small caps (albiet at a higher beta, allowing for some room for doubt).

    No one here knows what the FDA will say. The people here assuming it won't be approved are just the loudest ones at the moment. Real longs are sitting here quietly, patiently waiting for them to leave.

  • Reply to

    Who else is going to stick around?

    by rinehart.zack Jul 17, 2014 6:55 PM
    bioschrett bioschrett Jul 17, 2014 10:33 PM Flag

    Been around about a year and a half, traded in and out some but always held a core position. Surprised to see it this low so close to the 27th but hard for a smallcap like this to swim against the tide of the market.
    Anyway in my mind the costs of a problematic situation with the FDA were borne by MDCO. This team is basically making V2 of Ionsys but have chosen to start with a clean slate. Lots of the same people, similar device, and if you review the previous CRLs related alongside ACRX's study data they are cutting no corners in ensuring (as best they can) a hopeful first time approval.
    I'll be long for years to come and look forward to the transient swing traders moving on to the next board.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Bump in short interest isn't negative (sounds like I'm pumping doesn't it?). Institutions with concentrated positions are smart to short here to reduce exposure into the binary event. Perceptive owns some $70m in shares. In the off chance this doesn't get approved, they aren't going to sit there and watch tens of millions go down the drain. They are hedging the event. Plain and simple. They didn't invest to gamble - they invested because they trust this management team and are looking long term. They're happy to miss a few dollars on the upside if it means staying protected in the short term. The fruits of their labor will instead be realized in capturing the larger gains that will, presumably, come over the next few years.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    With large open interest in puts and calls

    by gusthetrader Jul 10, 2014 10:42 PM
    bioschrett bioschrett Jul 11, 2014 12:07 AM Flag

    Fair thought, but I really doubt that's going to happen. Open interest is too low and pegging this stock at $10 (a week before PDUFA) too expensive to make it worth anyone's while.

  • bioschrett by bioschrett Jun 30, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    So much useless noise on this board these days. The long term crowd has done their own DD and isn't swayed by the empty arguments floating around, the run up crowd doesn't care about the fundamentals, and the retail speculator who might randomly listen to these posts doesn't have more than a few hundred shares of buying power.

    The fact is that this will run to ~$12-13 before the PDUFA date no matter how much people here bash it down or pump it up. In a few weeks, large systematic events aside, it won't be $8 just like it won't be $15.
    Fortunately (for those of us with extra trading cash) it hasn't yet hit run-up levels due to typical end of the quarter rotation. Given the holiday around the corner we can expect July 7th-18th to be time for ascent, with some churn in the last week as people de-risk or buy for the pop.

    It's not rocket science. People know the value if approved and they know the chances of approval (street estimates are coming in around ~80%). Unless massive news leaks to change either of those one direction or another, this will be traded up to reflect appropriate probability weighted value. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    why revive squirrel's posts?

    by hpatrickous May 13, 2014 10:49 PM
    bioschrett bioschrett May 15, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    I responded to that old post because he has been curiously quiet recently, and in the past has made some great calls. I'm cautiously long here at an unfortunately higher price looking for some direction from a smart guy who was/is(?) bullish on this company.
    Gerry, I don't think there is a way for a non-authority/yahoo emp to confirm that level of detail (e.g. IP address) on these forums. I did look through their histories when I saw this though and they do have a suspiciously similar writing style.

  • Reply to

    Little blue tabs falling out of the mouth

    by pentech50 May 15, 2014 11:18 AM
    bioschrett bioschrett May 15, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Oh, the humanity. Blue tablets everywhere. Doctors and nurses drowning in a river of nanotabs from groggy patients who can't raise their hands to their mouths without blasting Zalviso all over the place.

    Haha honestly I'm not sure if that post is a joke or not, but for the benefit of anyone that hasn't read up on the trial results, they did test patient and nurse satisfaction associated with the system as a whole. In that they found 67% of nurses responded that they were 'highly satisfied' with the device versus 39% responding the same in the control group. In fact, go to page 12 of the current corporate presentation (on the Investors section of their website). Zalviso scored better [w statistical significance of

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sorry, everyone...

    by squirrel_fever Feb 14, 2014 10:06 AM
    bioschrett bioschrett May 13, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    squirrel - hope you're recovering well after the accident. Any thoughts on GTXI given the recent developments (e.g. CEO/CSO departures)?

  • Reply to

    Too risky to buy at these level

    by annickawaechter May 12, 2014 4:09 AM
    bioschrett bioschrett May 12, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    50-50? You know analysts covering the stock are saying the probability of approval is =90%, right? If the market feels close to that and values it appropriately, a $20 post-approval price will result in a probability-weighted run-up price of $18. Or if you're on the conservative end and see $16 post-approval then you're still looking at a healthy $14.4.
    It doesn't always shake out like that of course, but ignoring a sizable macro event we shouldn't be far off from hitting those types of numbers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Say goodbye to $11 for good

    by abandon_ship_asap May 7, 2014 1:57 PM
    bioschrett bioschrett May 8, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    Honestly I sort of hope it does. I'd throw any notion of diversification aside, take out the biggest loan I could, and just go completely all-in.

    I'll keep dreaming though - can't think of any plausible scenario where we drop that hard.

  • Reply to

    Say goodbye to $11 for good

    by abandon_ship_asap May 7, 2014 1:57 PM
    bioschrett bioschrett May 7, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    I couldn't agree more. Love the buying opportunity we have.

    It'll take a strong move past $10 before we're done with it, but once we start the PDUFA rally I can't see us coming back down to these levels under any normal circumstances.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bioschrett bioschrett May 7, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    First off, let me say I don't advise investing in this company until you do a bit more research. Be smart about your investments and don't put money into something unless you understand both the company and the associated risks.
    With that said it looks like you're referring to estimated revenue here. The reason that is anticipated to increase so much is because this is a development stage biotech company with no product currently on the market, but one expected to be approved and marketed by the end of the year. If their drug doesn't get approved then those estimates don't mean anything as the sales will be near 0. Still, in all likelihood it appears the drug will be approved.

    Sentiment: Buy

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