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Endocyte, Inc. (ECYT) Message Board

biotech_chairman_and_ceo 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 4, 2014 11:34 AM Member since: Feb 28, 2008
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  • Diagnostics are simply not as valuable..

  • biotech_chairman_and_ceo by biotech_chairman_and_ceo Jul 17, 2014 3:43 PM Flag


  • While the perma longs here have little concern about this value destruction, many longs see this decline as confirmation of the very long term problems Ariad must deal with. It is the dismal view of this company's situation that has made the takedown so easy. Apart from the molecule next announcement, we have a dearth of positive news for nearly 24 months. Of course, we still may have some bad news.

    Nobody on Wall Street is buying HB's promises or sweet talk anymore. Folks thinking he is going to pull a rabbit out of his hat, that idea is delusional, even I have abandoned it. No Rabbit. No hat. Go back and read your posts from 5 years ago. You could cut and paste that same nonsense instead of rewriting it now.

    The decline, and my conversation with IR, has confirmed that pessimistic view far more than my positive view. We know:

    -Iclusig will be a dog for 2 years minimum. There is nothing that is going to change that. Not Cortes, not dosing, not GIST, not IST's, nothing. Minimum 2 years for anything. Ditto '113.
    -The stock is still fully exposed to every market contagion at beta, and then some, like the Fed. We could go much lower, and probably will.
    -Q2 will confirm the double whammy of 15mg pricing, and 25%+ drops, due to the sickest of patients taking Iclusig.
    -PRAC will not be a positive development (but not the worst)
    -Molecule next is basically a Hail Mary by Ariad. If it is announced (even Jess sees a possible 15 month delay), it is hoped just the announcement is a value add. We have to borrow more money to even get the drug into the clinic. We can barely afford to sell Iclusig. After Rida, and Pona woes, this difficult target will not have the best of odds.

    We need to look no further than the incompetence of the Board of Directors. From $25 to $2 to the 9's to $5.37, all in a year, it is all so unacceptable.

    This isn't a company of unknown substance like we were 6 years ago, rattling around in the $2’s or lower. This is a company of substance bei

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