Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Sanofi Message Board

biotech_invest 134 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 1:46 PM Member since: Mar 5, 1998
  • biotech_invest biotech_invest Jul 2, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    well, actually I didn't have any PRAN short positions (too low pps to short). I have covered short positions for another biotech scam CBLI and used some gain for PRAN spec. invest. I was waiting for low enough pps to minimize possible losses if Prana management decide to pursue with animal TOX studies. Will keep my 15k shares (average $1.15) for possible run up event (hope it will happen in July-August).

  • most likely that FDA will agree with 2 years safe data for 250 mg PBT2 daily and remove phase III HD hold without animal tox studies.
    If buy at $1.15 possible losses can be -30% (if pps drop to $0.8 on phase III trial delay); if ph3 HD starts with 250 mg PBT2 daily the news can induce "run up" and pps can go to $2.50-3 (for short time).
    Well, after covering short positions in another biotech scam CBLI I'll buy may be 10-15k PRAN shares.

  • Reply to

    AfrezzaDOT comm

    by mjnasavedmylife Jun 25, 2015 11:49 AM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 25, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    DTC company starts next week July 1st and definitely they will provide this link on Afrezza website. TV advertisement in H2, 2015 will be very feasible and prescription will spike.
    Let's just wait. Shorts are already scared to death if covered 8% SI in 2 weeks at average pps $5.9

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This includes delivering 54,000 sample packs to physicians, establishing a doctor-education seminar series and incorporating Afrezza into Sanofi's Coach, a free diabetes-management program also available to patients with prescriptions for Toujeo, a new basal insulin developed by Sanofi.

    The DTC advertising campaign is expected to launch in the beginning of MannKind's third quarter, which begins on July 1. It was developed by Havas Health.

    “While the scope of the DTC ads looks to be initially limited to print publications, largely in diabetes-specific periodicals, we expect this targeted advertising to have a considerable impact on raising both patient and physician awareness,” Jefferies analyst Shaunak Deepak wrote in a note this week.

    The FDA last year approved Afrezza, making it the only inhaled insulin product available in the US. The meal-time insulin is considered a new option for patients who are resistant to using needles to inject insulin as well as the 3.1-million diabetes patients who are hesitant to begin treatment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Of course, main fear factor here is not bad results from extended failed AD trial but the fear about the possibility that Prana will agree to do animal toxic studies and postpone HD phase III trial for years.
    Well, an investment in biotech (and especially in scam biotech companies) is very risky game. If you buy PRAN right now for $1.25 you can lose $0.5 (animal trial) or gain $1-2 (FDA hold removed and Phase III HD trial start): -40% losses vs. 100-150% gain. I like risky games but the probability of success is low here: 70% probability to go with animal TOX vs. 30% start phase III HD in Q3-4, 2015.
    However, if pps will go to $1 and below the possible losses will become acceptable (-20-25% losses vs. +100-150% gain). So, I will be in at $1

  • Reply to

    New Short Interest is 120.425 Million

    by nakedoption3 Jun 24, 2015 4:04 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 24, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    looks like capitulation

    SI grown for 1 year (almost doubled) from 6/13/2014 69,425,357 to maximum 5/29/2015 131,158,892. And now it drops 8% for 2 weeks - definitely it's capitulation and covering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 24, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    if you want to know exact ratio (molar or W:W) of insulin to fumaryl diketopiperazine (FDKP) you can search for MNKD patent "Purification and stabilization of peptide and protein pharmaceutical agents
    US 6444226 B1"
    Encapsulation or entrapment of large polymers, such as proteins and peptides, in diketopiperazines can be used to remove impurities or contaminants such as metal ions or other small molecules. The diketopiperazines also serve both to stabilize and enhance delivery of the entrapped materials.
    For example, it was discovered that hexameric insulin can be delivered to the lung in fumaryl diketopiperazine formulation, reaching peak blood concentrations within 3-10 minutes. In contrast, insulin administered by the pulmonary route without fumaryl diketopiperazine typically takes between 25-60 minutes to reach peak blood concentrations, while hexameric insulin takes 30-90 minutes to reach peak blood level when administered by subcutaneous injection.
    In a preferred embodiment, hexameric insulin is entrapped in fumaryl diketopiperazine to form a solid precipitate of monomeric insulin in the fumaryl diketopiperazine, which then is washed with aqueous solution to remove the free zinc. This formulation demonstrates blood uptake following pulmonary administration at a rate 2.5 times the rate of insulin uptake following subcutaneous injection, with peak blood levels occurring at between 7.5 and 10 minutes after administration.
    The range of loading of the drug to be delivered is typically between about 0.01% and 90%, depending on the form and size of the drug to be delivered and the target tissue. In a preferred embodiment using diketopiperazines, the preferred range is from 0.1% to 50% loading by weight of drug. The appropriate dosage can be determined, for example, by the amount of incorporated/encapsulated agent, the rate of its release from the microparticles, and, in a preferred embodiment, the patient's blood glucose level.
    For inhalable Insulin 90% FDKP : 10%

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Shorts have used all "reserve ammunition" to keep this pattern during 12 months and now short interest is 131M and current MNKD pps ($6) is down 46% from 1 year ago ($11). Theoretically if shorts cover now they will have average gain $260-300M. Question is how they can cover 131M shares without pps increase?
    They need some extremely negative event to realize this opportunity. What kind of event they are waiting? Adam F. has predicted that "by the end of the year, Sanofi (SNY) will jettison MannKind (MNKD) and its failed inhaled insulin Afrezza". Looks like that this prediction will be wrong (as usually for AF predictions).
    Question is why Goldman Sachs that downgraded MNKD pps to $3 increased MNKD stake 39.62% during Q1, 2015?
    GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 03/31/2015 874,705 +248,192 +39.62%
    Also the majority of Big Holders increase MNKD stake from 120M shares to 107M (26% outstanding shares now) during Q1, 2015.
    Very interesting coincidences...
    Looks like BIG GAME where Big Money "squeeze out" MNKD shares from retail investors. They can accumulate only 240M (Mann Group has 40% of outstanding) i.e. 133M left to collect. Exactly current short interest... Again interesting coincidence?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 23, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    WOW! We have here just a chorus of Tanzi's as..kissers :-) Tanzi admires almost proclaim him "Savior from AD" (abbrev. SAD). Well, you can continue to mumble your stupid panegyrics to your SAD and wait for AD cure.
    When I read statements like this:
    "I ALSO HAVE TWO DRUGS in clinical trials. One, that stops the amyloid from aggregating, is called PBT2, from Prana Biotechnology, a company I FOUNDED IN MY LAB. That drug aims to stop the aggregation of the amyloid in the brain so IT CAN CLEAR OUT. And then we have another drug that is just getting into clinical trials that stops the amyloid from being made, that’s called GSM, which stands for gamma-secretase modulator. So one of them basically turns off the spigot, the other unclogs the drain."
    I see just pitiful poseur that treat himself as a genius scientist that will find a cure for AD, HD, PD and may be for constipation and diarrhea. Just a SAD :-)
    Term "statin for Alzheimer's" should be nominated for most idiotic pseudo-scientific term :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • because if shorts borrow and Sell-to-short more shares they "know something" :-)
    BTW what they "knew" when shorted 4.5M SIAL at average $100 just before SIAL buyout for $140? $1.8B losses just in one moment.
    For MNKD with 131M shorted sales pps spike to $10 will bring at least $400-500M losses.
    Everybody asks just one question: why shorts are not covering? The answer may be very simple: they don't care about potential huge losses because they put under risk their clients money. In simple words these losses are already "priced in" as potential in portfolio of short-trading funds. When shorted MNKD the portfolio managers have trusted to wrong predictions of own analysts: Afrezza sales will be very low, at some point several Afrezza users will get lung cancer and MNKD pps will be crashed to $1 and below. Average gain from 131M shorted stock (at average $8-9) will be almost $1B. Not bad. If they still believe in this "prediction" they will never cover and may be even add more 10-20M shares.
    Time will tell who was right here: Mann who sold successfully several biotechs or shorts that are thinking that this time Mann bet on wrong technology and put under risk $1B of his own money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 22, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    kad, I understand your point here: you are believing in Prana science and investing in what you are believe. But I "invest in what I know. PD is not my area but I have some experience in AD research. When I firstly saw that Prana has claimed to cure AD with PBT2 I was LOL. Never think that serious investors will put money on table and buy this fake biotech. But they did and lost big money. I was betting on PBT2 failure in AD trial and my gain was doubled. BTW I also played against Dimebon and short MDVN before phase III trial results.
    My credo in investment is simple: if I think that some biotech is scam I never hide my opinion but share it. In 80% cases I'm right and it bring me good profit. In 20% I mistaken and got some losses. You can follow my opinions or not , it's your business.
    Yes, I don't believe in PRAN science and Tanzi ideas to cure AD with metal chelator. AD is very hard puzzle that can't be solved so simply. Good luck with you investments that based on "believing" in science in small-cap biotechs. Add ORMP, XOMA, AXON, CTIX, BIOD and etc (all i my Fake biotech list).

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 22, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    "my accusations about lies in peer-reviewed journal papers is astounding" ? Are you seriously? Just read this paper "In science, irreproducible research is a quiet crisis"
    "EVEN WHEN NO one’s done anything obviously wrong, scientific experiments sometimes yield results that turn out to be incorrect. When Doug Melton’s team at Harvard University discovered betatrophin, a hormone that could trigger the pancreas to make beta cells lost in diabetes, their 2013 paper was touted as a breakthrough. But when they redid the experiment and increased the number of animals, the original result didn’t quite hold up. The hormone’s effect was far weaker than first reported...."
    You will see that "my accusations" are nothing in comparison with real problem in science. I even completely stop my attempts to reproduce any results because it's just waste of time and money. Authors always answer like this:
    "As Olsen recalled, the scientist seemed surprised to hear from him and said that the technique was very difficult and that he would not recommend that people do it. It became clear to Olsen that it was something that the original research team had tried and failed to do many times, and then had gone and published a paper based on the few times it worked."
    PBT2 is safe compound but it can't solve AD puzzle :-)

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 22, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    thanks for the link, it was interesting to I read this paper. BTW the correspondent author Susan Lindquist was published at least one paper with Tanzi as co-author. The paper was published in Science and sure it gave them both very good opportunity to get funds (money)
    Science. 2011 Dec 2;334(6060):1241-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1213210. Epub 2011 Oct 27.
    Functional links between Aβ toxicity, endocytic trafficking, and Alzheimer's disease risk factors in yeast.
    Treusch S1, Hamamichi S, Goodman JL, Matlack KE, Chung CY, Baru V, Shulman JM, Parrado A, Bevis BJ, Valastyan JS, Han H, Lindhagen-Persson M, Reiman EM, Evans DA, Bennett DA, Olofsson A, DeJager PL, Tanzi RE, Caldwell KA, Caldwell GA, Lindquist S.

    Couple comments about paper that you had cited as an evidence that PBT2 can be a neuroprotective compound and even cure some neurodegenerative diseases. I agree that both PBT2 and 8-OHQ have ionophoric and intracellular chelation activities. And this intracellular metal chelation may change activity of metal-dependent proteins like cytochrome cooxidase, aconitase, alkaline phosphatase, malate dehydrogenase, SOD1 and many other enzymes.
    And authors admitted that "metal chelators are frequently dismissed as therapeutic agents because of the expectation that they lack mechanistic specificity." But other conclusion that "PBT2 is both well tolerated and effective in AD patients (31, 34)." is a lie. PBT2 is safe at 250 mg daily doses but it's not effective in AD patients.
    So, may be both mentioned compounds are bioactive ones but they are not cures for AD, HD, PD and etc. May be they even have some neuroprotective effects in such models as yeast and C. elegans but they are absolutely useless to cure human neurodegenerative diseases.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • and it costed them at least 10-15M more shorted shares. At the same time daily volume is so low that short can't cover any significant portion of their positions (may be 1-2M per day).
    140-145M (35% outstanding shares) short interest is very attractive number for Big Players that want to initiate short squeeze event without any risk: they can just put Limited order on 10M MNKD shares ($6 and up to $8) and get price spike to $15.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 19, 2015 12:21 AM Flag

    Well, it's zero because of wrong paradigm. Dimebone, Alzhemed, PBT2 and other fake AD were failed because they were designed to fight with amyloid. AD drugs were never designed to fight with tau aggregation in axons. TauRx drug is now in phase III trial and results will be released in 2016.
    You said that these morons are not investing in AD drugs? But look at AXON scam: cap $1.44B pps $19. I shorted this scam at $26 and will cover below $10. But some idiots were buying it at $29.

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 18, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    Well, you can use this cellular model for tau aggregation and test PBT2 efficacy:
    J Biol Chem. 2015 Apr 24;290(17):10862-75. doi: 10.1074/jbc.M114.616029. Epub 2015 Mar 10.
    Cellular Models of Aggregation-dependent Template-directed Proteolysis to Characterize Tau Aggregation Inhibitors for Treatment of Alzheimer Disease.
    Harrington CR1, Storey JM2, Clunas S3, Harrington KA4, Horsley D4, Ishaq A3, Kemp SJ3, Larch CP3, Marshall C3, Nicoll SL3, Rickard JE4, Simpson M3, Sinclair JP3, Storey LJ3, Wischik CM5.

    Alzheimer disease (AD) is a degenerative tauopathy characterized by aggregation of Tau protein through the repeat domain to form intraneuronal paired helical filaments (PHFs). We report two cell models in which we control the inherent toxicity of the core Tau fragment. These models demonstrate the properties of prion-like recruitment of full-length Tau into an aggregation pathway in which template-directed, endogenous truncation propagates aggregation through the core Tau binding domain. We use these in combination with dissolution of native PHFs to quantify the activity of Tau aggregation inhibitors (TAIs). We report the synthesis of novel stable crystalline leucomethylthioninium salts (LMTX®), which overcome the pharmacokinetic limitations of methylthioninium chloride. LMTX®, as either a dihydromesylate or a dihydrobromide salt, retains TAI activity in vitro and disrupts PHFs isolated from AD brain tissues at 0.16 μm. The Ki value for intracellular TAI activity, which we have been able to determine for the first time, is 0.12 μm. These values are close to the steady state trough brain concentration of methylthioninium ion (0.18 μm) that is required to arrest progression of AD on clinical and imaging end points and the minimum brain concentration (0.13 μm) required to reverse behavioral deficits and pathology in Tau transgenic mice.

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 18, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    forget to cite paper about tau aggregation model

    J Biol Chem. 2015 Apr 24;290(17):10862-75. doi: 10.1074/jbc.M114.616029. Epub 2015 Mar 10.
    Cellular Models of Aggregation-dependent Template-directed Proteolysis to Characterize Tau Aggregation Inhibitors for Treatment of Alzheimer Disease.
    Harrington CR1, Storey JM2, Clunas S3, Harrington KA4, Horsley D4, Ishaq A3, Kemp SJ3, Larch CP3, Marshall C3, Nicoll SL3, Rickard JE4, Simpson M3, Sinclair JP3, Storey LJ3, Wischik CM5.

    Tanzi can use this model and prove that PBT2 can destroy tau aggregates in cell model.

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 18, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    just citing, citing and citing papers about how good PBT2 as AD cure :-) You remember me guys that were citing published papers about other failed AD drug - Dimebon. But Dimebon even showed good results in AD phase II before complete failure in phase III. Same about Alzhemed and other fake drugs. Looks like even Tanzi has already admitted that PBT2 is not cure for AD but you continue to cite papers that were published by Tanzi as..kissers :-)
    If you know how easy to do falsification in science you will never believe so blindly in published results. So-called "metal theory of AD" is baloney invented by Tanzi to earn good money for his retirement (may be to buy yacht , nice bungalow and etc.).
    "Invest in what you know" but never invest in what you believe.
    About simple model where you can observe PBT2 in action: express GFP-tau in neurons, add inhibitor of PP2A or PBT2 (maximum concentration) and you will see that PBT2 can't prevent tau hyperphosporylation. Easy-to-do experiment and I'm sure that scientists in Big Pharma already did it. The results for Prana: no partner, no funds/institutions holding.
    Also there are no partners for HD, PD and etc.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 18, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    "Scientists at Bayer HealthCare reported that when they tried to reproduce 67 published discoveries in oncology, women’s health, and cardiovascular disease, only a quarter of the time were their in-house results completely consistent with what had been reported. A scientist at Amgen disclosed that, despite concerted effort, the company had successfully repeated only six of 53 major cancer findings."
    Most likely that Tanzi, Adlard and etc works are irreproducible and time will reveal the truth.
    BTW I didn't shorted PRAN yet (too low pps now) and even will buy it if run up happen (HD phase III or other positive events). But most likely Prana management will postpone HD phase III trial and agree to do animal tox studies. They will have more time to enjoy their good salaries and happy life. PRAN holders (at current pps) will have 50% losses and dead money for next 2-3 years.
    Good luck with pumping PRAN-scam :-) Will you continue to pump it if pps drop to cash/outstanding level ($0.75)?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Hey Bio

    by kadaicher1 Jun 17, 2015 6:09 PM
    biotech_invest biotech_invest Jun 18, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    I see that you carefully read Wiki about tau and now know that just "removing" from neuron's axon will kill them very soon :-)
    BTW tau is always phosphorylated but the most important which sites (i.e. amino acids) are phosphorylated. GSK3 is not single kinase that work with tau:
    "The stress-activated protein (SAP) kinases SAPK1γ (also called JNK1), SAPK2a (also called p38, RK, CSBPs, Mpk2 and Mxi2), SAPK2b (also called p38β), SAPK3 (also called ERK6 and p38γ) and SAPK4 phosphorylate tau at many serine/threonine-prolines, Based on initial rates of phosphorylation, tau was found to be a good substrate for SAPK4 and SAPK3, a reasonable substrate for SAPK2b and a relatively poor substrate for SAPK2a and SAPK1γ. Phosphorylation of tau by SAPK3 and SAPK4 resulted in a marked reduction in its ability to promote microtubule assembly."
    Your hypothesis that PBT2 removes copper/zinc trapped in tangles and it disaggregates the tau tangles is just repeating of stupid statements of Tanzi and his as..kissers. Nobody (except Dr. Wishnik) show directly that tau aggregates can be destroyed. It's so easy to get them in vitro, add PBT2 and show that the aggregates disappeared. Can you cite such publication with PBT2?
    About "exact objections to Adlards paper"... To object it I need to repeat/reproduce experimental data. During my life I was trying to do it many times and in 80-90% I got negative results - just waste of time.
    Citation: "As a junior researcher, Olsen spent a year trying to repeat an experiment he had seen published in a prestigious journal. The technique in question supposedly could be used to track molecules within cells. At wits’ end, he contacted the scientist who had led the research to ask what he was doing wrong. As Olsen recalled, the scientist seemed surprised to hear from him and said that to hear from him and said that the technique was very difficult and that he would not recommend that people do it." In simple words he has admitted that they published false.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

SNY
49.47-0.29(-0.58%)Jul 2 4:01 PMEDT