Well, panel decision to market this to a limited patient group is a negative. Considering a monster run up into this event, I am expecting profit taking tomorrow. If ESPR drops in sympathy, then that will be a great buying opportunity as they are expected to release phase II data some time in June.
Looks like investors relations didn't give you the right information. This is from their earnings press release.
Mid-year 2015, Esperion expects to announce top-line results from the Phase 2 ETC-1002-014 clinical study. This study enrolled 144 patients to evaluate the LDL-cholesterol lowering efficacy of ETC-1002 versus placebo in patients with both hypercholesterolemia and hypertension.
Third quarter 2015, Esperion expects to hold an End-of-Phase 2 meeting with FDA for ETC-1002.
Before year end, Esperion expects to initiate a Phase 3 clinical development program for ETC-1002.
That is the key and the stock that will move more in sympathy is ESPR.
If FDA allows REGN and AMGN broader indication, ESPR will surge plus they are also expected to release top-line data this month. This is from their earnings press release:
"Mid-year 2015, Esperion expects to announce top-line results from the Phase 2 ETC-1002-014 clinical study. This study enrolled 144 patients to evaluate the LDL-cholesterol lowering efficacy of ETC-1002 versus placebo in patients with both hypercholesterolemia and hypertension".
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I did a rough calculation. based on Enterprise Value of $13.26B, $15B buyout would translate to about $55, however the news outlet reporting $54, how are they coming up with $54. What am I missing?
$250 target by when? Is this a 12-month target price? What is the upside on data that will be released on Thursday?
So far I have 10 contracts @ average cost of $10.85. As you can see I am slightly down on my position. I will watch how it trades next week before adding more calls. I would not recommend strike $40s as it is too far out. Stay within $12.50 and $25 strike. And make sure you are hedged.
Here is what I am doing, I am holding May $12.50 Calls. If the stock runs up ahead of the event to let's say $25, I will buy May $20 Puts to hedge. I don't like spreads goint into binary events as it limits your gains. I did a similar play on ESPR and I did very well on that trade although I took my profit a little too soon.