Let's define some terms, ok?
When you refer in your posts to "ALNY's GalNAc.v.1.0," is this the same RNAi technology that ALNY calls the "standard template chemistry (STC)-GalNAc-conjugate approach?" If you agree, let's call this "ALNY's GalNAc-STC." If you don't agree, please tell us specifically what you mean by "ALNY's GalNAc.v.1.0."
Also, when you refer in your posts to "ALNY's GalNAc.v.2.0," is this the same RNAi technology that ALNY calls the "Enhanced Stabilization Chemistry (ESC)-GalNAc-conjugate delivery platform?" If you agree, let's call this "ALNY's GalNAc-ESC." If you don't agree, please tell us specifically what you mean by "ALNY's GalNAc.v.2.0."
Finally, when you speak about the absence of clinical data, "because ALNY's GalNAc.v.2.0 has yet to enter the clinic," I assume you mean that "ALNY's GalNAc-ESC" has not yet entered any human clinical trials, not even phase 1 human clinical trials. Are we on the same page? If not, why not?
holdencf, I took issue with your blanket statement about ALNY's GalNAc chemistry being untested in humans, etc. I challenged that and pointed to ALN-TTRsc in phase 3. In response to my original challenge you now quote an unidentified passage from ALNY's website. This unidentified quote refers to ALNY's "most advanced" GalNAc chemistry called ESC-GalNAc which is not yet in humans. I had specifically mentioned TTRsc but you ignored that reference in my original post and now try to shift the focus from GalNAcs in general to "their most advanced delivery technology."
I am disappointed with your response. Rather than simply admit that you were mistaken or overreached or whatever, you staked out a position and then defended it with sleight of hand tactics against the evidence.
People interested in reading more about ALNY's ESC-GalNAc chemistry versus their less potent GalNAc chemistry currently used in human phase 3 can start with ALNY's pr dated 5-11-2014 "Alnylam Presents Key Scientific Data on Enhanced Stabilization Chemistry (ESC)-GalNAc-Conjugate Technology."
BTW, I am long ARWR and have no position whatsoever in ALNY. I simply want to correct statements--or my own understanding if I am in error--that I read repeatedly on this board completely dismissing ALNY, its technology and its programs such that the only explanation for its $11bn market cap must lie in BS, deceit and market manipulation. IMO arguments that fail to seriously grapple with ALNY's leadership in the RNAi space is a recipe for poor investment decisions (e.g., investron's full throated call to short ALNY $70+ points ago in June 2014 paired against a "buy all you can" long position in ARWR).
"Maraganore is quite skilled in the art of BS. Hence the $11Bn mkt cap when ALNY has, thus far, delivered bubkiss, in the form of data."
---I agree Maraganore is quite skill in the art of BS and find his business tactics reprehensible. However, the notion that ALNY's $11Bn mkt cap is built on a foundation without substance seems demonstrably wrong. Your statement implies that they have delivered no data to support their RNAi leading market cap also seems demonstrably wrong. Were you simply expressing rhetorical flourishes to make a point or do you believe that the evidence fairly supports such a dim view of ALNY?
You also stated:
"So now he is stuck with GalNacs. Probably safe in humans bc it's just a sugar. But nobody knows if or how efficacious it w/b in humans." And "[i]t is questionable as to whether it [GalNacs] works in the liver as well...we shall see as ALN-AAT gets in the clinic later this year"
---ALN-TTRsc is now in Ph.3. My understanding is ALN-TTRsc uses the GalNac chemistry. If true, why do you assert we won't know whether ALNY's GalNacs are safe and efficacious until ALN-AAT gets into the clinic later this year? What am I not understanding?
Further, it seems accurate to say that much more safety and efficacy data is available to the public regarding ALNY's GalNac than ARWR's DPC? Again, what am I not understanding?
Great post about your involvement with ARWR's BOD, interactions with C.A., etc. Although I certainly cannot confirm the accuracy of your story, it rang true to me. Therefore, I think it is great that you posted this info and post your opinions on this board.
A couple of questions:
1. I think you may have posted this elsewhere, but what is your educational background?
2. What other stocks do you like and, if you are so inclined, please say why and to what extent you are bullish on whatever names you mention.
3. Given the often dysfunctional, petty and ignorant nature of many of the posts here, why do you bother to post? (I'm just curious.)
Congrats. You have earned a diploma from investron for your quote at the top of this thread. Such a diploma award from investron causes normal people to want to run and hide. I suggest you do the same.
First, as Mr.RedRover points out, orphan designation means almost nothing. It is nice to have but no big deal until approval. Ask yourself, if you didn't like ARWR before ARC-AAT received orphan designation, should today's announcement cause you to change your mind and want to invest in ARWR? The answer should be no because ARC-AAT still has to pass all the same regulatory hurdles with or without the designation. Many compounds that receive orphan designation never get approved. (And BTW, I believe ARC-AAT has a lot of potential; but having received orphan designation does not make me like any more.)
Second, with regard to your statement, "it looks like ARWR might just possibly get ARC-AAT approved as the first RNAi product to hit the market...." while technically true (i.e., ARC-AAT "might just possibly" be approved as the first RNAi product to hit the market), the reality is this compound is literally years behind other RNAi products in the race for FDA approval. Take for example, ALNY's Patisiran which is in Phase 3 trials. Obviously, no one can say for sure what compound will be the first RNAi approved compound, however, I would be willing to bet quite a lot of money that it will not be ARC-AAT. (And I say that despite the fact that I am long ARWR and have absolutely no position in ALNY.) If you meant to say that ARC-AAT might be the first approved RNAi drug to treat AATD, that is a perfectly defensible statement. However, your statement (as quoted above) is such a long shot as to be utterly fantastical (though technically not impossible).
Best of luck to you.
Nothing I have said should be construed as a criticism of ARWR or that I am bearish on it.
Rather, I am taking to task investron's claims and assertions which he presents as both factual and unassailable but are mostly just figments of his imagination. He is a fantasist and a mean-spirited one at that.
With regard to your statement that "If the ship goes down, then I go down." I hope this is hyperbole. No investor should ever invest more than s/he can manage to lose without suffering a life changing loss. Discipline must always trump conviction.
Good luck to you.
Thanks. I took your advise. In the interim, I was contacted by one of the ir people. Basically, I was told UNIS doesn't provide tours of its facility on a one-off basis but if and when management selects a day to provide tours to a group, I will be informed.
Lol. That is not what you said at the time. When you recommended shorting ALNY, you were focused on ARWR's clinical timeline lead with regard to HBV. You also touted ARWR's ability to quickly get a new compound into the clinic (AAT). Today's effort to explain why you recommended shorting ALNY is simply wrong based on your own statements made at the time.
“A Lot Of Criticism Of The Management. By the same standard I could be criticized for over-promising the performance of ARWR stock. And that would be an understatement.”
---Truer words have never been spoken by you.
“But look at the science and what this science can accomplish. Then both I and the management can be accused of not being nearly enthusiastic enough.”
---Oh. The problem is that you haven't been enthusiastic enough. Lol.
“You people don't know what you have here.”
---Maybe. But is there any reason for anyone else to believe that you do? Your track record has been atrocious.
“I can not exaggerate on the potential of ARWR if I try.”
---Oh go ahead. Give it a try. Just for laughs.
“NVS dumped ALNY and got into ARWR in stead.”
---Some say it was a fireside sale but perhaps this is just your effort to exaggerate in the extreme.
“And ALNY is $126 to ARWR $6. What more do you need to know?”
---How about the fact that ALNY has more cash on hand than ARWR's entire market cap. That's right, more than $12 per share and more than $1 billion in cash. Or how 'bout the fact that ALNY has some very impressive partnerships with top tier biotech and pharma players. Yet you urged everyone to short ALNY 70+ points ago and constantly regale everyone else as stupid?
“Think of every day as that incredible opportunity to BUY at these crazy prices not to be seen again.”
---You always say that no matter ARWR's share price. You said that when ARWR was in the $20's. You said that in the teens. And you say that now in the single digits.
Has anyone actually toured the York PA facility? I've contacted UNIS ir and requested a tour/visit but they have not yet replied to my rquests. Anyone know who I should contact to arrange a tour? Thanks.
I am a bit surprised by your intrusion into the back and forth between investron and holdencf.
I well remember investron's gratuitous attacks on you for no reason other than you being a trader and not a long term investor in ARWR. He was clearly the initiator of mean-spirited & insulting posts in your case as well as in many others.
Perhaps I missed the post in which holdencf went after investron first, but I did read multiple posts from investron attacking holdencf in typical investron fashion. If true that investron initiated this skirmish, I wonder why you give investron a pass and holdencf a rap on the knuckles.
The greater "irony" is that you urged readers of this board to short ALNY $60+ points ago. (Have you covered your ALNY short yet? If so, when?)
You further pounded the table on ARWR only to see its price cut by more than 75% from it high.
Not an enviable track record.
And even more "ironic" is the fact that you have never done a mea culpa for being so completely and arrogantly wrong about just about everything you've ever posted on these boards. (This includes your posts touting MRNA and attacking TKMR.)
And finally, to add insult to injury, you insult every poster who dares express any opinion contrary to your opinion.
You have a lot to learn about investing and even more to learn about being a decent human being.