Prediction: MrsBodacious posts a "Strong Sell" sometime today or tomorrow. At that time he will probably indicate that ARWR will soon hit $1.50 to $2.50.
MrsBodacious is a short TERM trader, And much like another poster here, his posts seek simply to support his Short TERM needs regardless of honesty, much like another poster here.
Very interesting conjecture.
Are you seriously waiting for that "MEGA deal?" with "HUGE upfront cash?"
I assume you are talking about money from a pharmaceutical company that pays big dollars up front to UNIS for their injectible products? If so, I don't see that happening and I think you will be disappointed if that is what you are waiting for.
I think retail investors need to be realistic. Why would any pharma purchaser not insist on tying HUGE cash payments to actual satisfactory performance and delivery? Frankly, I think UNIS getting the upfront money it has already is extremely impressive.
If UNIS has bona fide purchase orders, I fully expect they will find the money to finance these deals.
Might there be other big name investors? Possibly.
So Unitract was a dry hole. If the next 4 or 5 drill sites have hit oil, why lament the past? Maybe there's a gusher or 2 in those new sites.
We (by that I mean me) believe this Ocujet deal is a good deal.
We (by that I mean me) believe this not the last UNIS deal.
We (by that I mean me) believe UNIS will go higher from here but not without pullbacks.
We (by that I mean me) think we (by that I mean me) will be right but we (by that I mean me) have to admit that we (by that I mean me) are often wrong.
I fully agree, AS has retracted his 12 deals by year end statement. Still, it will be interesting to see how many deals actually do get announced by year end.
AS has a wide credibility gap that has been built up over several years. Until the Sanofy deal, it paid to discount his bravado. Now, the market still has a way to go to adjust to what seems like a new reality to me and this disconnect should play out in favor of current long's (assuming AS delivers).
GLTA (except MrsBodacious)
Not much to say except a deal is a deal. 5 deals down, 7(?) left.
The way the deal was released indicates that it is not an Ace. Released just after the market opened. Seems clear someone knew something late Friday and this accounts for Friday's price action late in the day IMO.
Still, the deal is not fluff. It doesn't have upfront money but that doesn't mean investors should dismiss it as meaningless or worse. Doesn't the deal indicate that UNIS has several viable delivery platforms confirmed by actual deals with pharmaceutical companies? This should count for something.
Take a closer look at the announced deals:
Sanofy - Prefilled Syringes
Medimmune - Wearable Injectibles
Novartis - Novel Delivery
Today's Deal - Ocular Delivery
The Hikma announcement seems the one exception to this pattern. But the Hikma deal is also the deal that came with the most concrete details; most upfront money, guaranteed 175+ million minimum units in 2014.
These deals are a message to other pharma companies, "Time to cut a deal on our terms or be left behind."
I expect at least one more "Ace" deal before end of year, probably just before Christmas. This statement is made as a pure guess; just trying to put myself in the shoes of AS and think about what I would want to do if I were him. It seems obvious to me that he is a master manipulator and has been "playing" his cards only when he wants to or is forced to (the Forbes article). And if I were him I would want another "Ace" played by year end and if possible give shareholders a Christmas gift.
Your point that UNIS still has yet to show that it can turn a profit is valid. But I think it misses the larger and more immediate point.
Going into September, UNIS had a lot to prove and fully justified your skeptical/bearish view. But hasn't the landscape changed significantly for UNIS? Haven't they moved the ball down the field and scored some points? (Admiittedly, the game isn't over, and UNIS still has to prove it can deliver and perform pursuant to those agreements. But the odds makers should adjust the odds to reflect the current situation.) And if so, how much time did UNIS buy before the market penalizes them if they don't deliver and turn that profit you are looking for now? Factor in the prospect of additional near term deals and the likely effect on the stock price and it seems clear to me that being short UNIS is unnecessarily risky.
Finally, ask yourself, isn't the market correct to revalue UNIS higher now after those 4 deals compared to before? You seem to want to ignore the psychological side to investing because your mantra is "show me the profits." But successful investing requires a certain amount of flexibility in the face of changed facts. Please think about the psychological side to investing and good luck with whatever you decide to do.
True, except MrsBodacious doesn't believe her own posts. She is a short term trader who disingenuously posts in order to influence the market. (Never mind whether this is actually possible). She makes outrageously bearish claims hoping to scrounge up a few cheap shares and once she has established a full position, she flips and makes bullish posts hoping to influence the market so she can then unload her shares. She will repeat this cycle for as long as she thinks any particular stock has sufficient volatility to suit her trading needs.
Papoua97 seems to be a sincere short. I think he is severely mistaken and fails to see that the September 2013 agreement with Sanofy changed the landscape for UNIS. His bearish tone hasn't changed one iota since before that deal was announced. After reading the Gelvert SA article, I got the eerie feeling that Mr. Gelvert and Papoua97 are the same person. Both seem to have the same sort of blinders on regarding the significance of that deal and what it means.
Message to Papuoa97: Investing sometimes requires that you change you opinion about a stock because the facts change. Ask yourself this question: What would it take for you to become less bearish on UNIS than you were before September 2013? If the SNY, Medimmune, Hikma and NVS deals didn't make you less bearish, then what would?
God love ya Papoua97,
With a straight face, you haven't become the slightest less bearish than before the SNY deal. For most rational investors (and the market) that should have been a clue that the UNIS landscape had changed. But you are an investor with conviction. You're not gonna let a little something like the SNY deal, followed by the deals with Medimmune and Hikma change your mind. You just keep posting and shorting and pretending like those pharma companies who have parted with real upfront money was paid to UNIS because UNIS has nothing of value compared to the competition.
You are a marvelous example of an investor whose head is planted firmly in the sand.
How about revealing how many shares short you are and where your break even point is. That way we can all play along and see how well your short position treats you.
(I do hope you are really short and not playing possum trying to scrounge up cheap shares.