"If ARWR Were $70 Today We'd Be Complaining"
---Investron, you have long been the biggest complainer on this board.
"There is nothing to say."
---Investron, you are the king of saying a whole lot of nothing.
"All these stupid posts trying to justify the price play into the shorts' hands."
---Investron, Exhibit A of stupid posts are your relentlessly stupid posts.
"ARWR can be cranking out better and deeper pipeline than ALNY such that it will make the superiority of DPC very clear."
---Maybe that will be the case in the future but that is clearly not the case now and wasn't the case when you stupidly and arrogantly recommended shorting ALNY $50+ points ago.
BTW, I am long ARWR and have no position whatsoever in ALNY. I simply want to correct statements--or my own understanding if I am in error--that I read repeatedly on this board completely dismissing ALNY, its technology and its programs such that the only explanation for its $11bn market cap must lie in BS, deceit and market manipulation. IMO arguments that fail to seriously grapple with ALNY's leadership in the RNAi space is a recipe for poor investment decisions (e.g., investron's full throated call to short ALNY $70+ points ago in June 2014 paired against a "buy all you can" long position in ARWR).
Holdencf said, "I don't see how they dose humans by YE?"
ALNY's roundtable HBV presentation did not assert they are going to dose humans by year end. They said they are going to file the Clinical Trial Application by year end and that those [early stage] trials will be concluded by year end 2016.
That said, I was not impressed with ALNY's HBV roundtable presentation.
The greater "irony" is that you urged readers of this board to short ALNY $60+ points ago. (Have you covered your ALNY short yet? If so, when?)
You further pounded the table on ARWR only to see its price cut by more than 75% from it high.
Not an enviable track record.
And even more "ironic" is the fact that you have never done a mea culpa for being so completely and arrogantly wrong about just about everything you've ever posted on these boards. (This includes your posts touting MRNA and attacking TKMR.)
And finally, to add insult to injury, you insult every poster who dares express any opinion contrary to your opinion.
You have a lot to learn about investing and even more to learn about being a decent human being.
Investron's Track Record
1. He strongly advocated shorting ALNY in $50's. ALNY is currently @ $124. Did he do a mea culpa? Never.
2. He was pounding the table on ARWR in the $20's and even more aggressively in the high teens. When ARWR was driven into the single digits, he went AWOL from these boards. Now he is back making the same "to the moon" claims.
3. He heaped scorn and ridicule on TKMR only to see the market reward TKMR and drive ARWR into the single digits. Did he do a mea culpa? No, he went AWOL.
4. He advocated buying MRNA hand over fist at much higher levels.
5. He denigrates any contrary opinion no matter the source or how well reasoned the rationale. The fact that time has proven him utterly wrong and those he viciously attacks as right does not change his approach. Case in point, Blogger Dirk Haussecker who, BTW is again long ARWR. But rather than praise DH's stock trading skills as superior to his own, investron childishly and relentlessly attacks him. Every person on this board would benefit greatly from reading DH and disregarding investron's rants and raves.
6. When things go wrong, Investron goes AWOL. He doesn't have the class or maturity to admit mistakes or cease engaging in personal ad hominem attacks.
"Maraganore is quite skilled in the art of BS. Hence the $11Bn mkt cap when ALNY has, thus far, delivered bubkiss, in the form of data."
---I agree Maraganore is quite skill in the art of BS and find his business tactics reprehensible. However, the notion that ALNY's $11Bn mkt cap is built on a foundation without substance seems demonstrably wrong. Your statement implies that they have delivered no data to support their RNAi leading market cap also seems demonstrably wrong. Were you simply expressing rhetorical flourishes to make a point or do you believe that the evidence fairly supports such a dim view of ALNY?
You also stated:
"So now he is stuck with GalNacs. Probably safe in humans bc it's just a sugar. But nobody knows if or how efficacious it w/b in humans." And "[i]t is questionable as to whether it [GalNacs] works in the liver as well...we shall see as ALN-AAT gets in the clinic later this year"
---ALN-TTRsc is now in Ph.3. My understanding is ALN-TTRsc uses the GalNac chemistry. If true, why do you assert we won't know whether ALNY's GalNacs are safe and efficacious until ALN-AAT gets into the clinic later this year? What am I not understanding?
Further, it seems accurate to say that much more safety and efficacy data is available to the public regarding ALNY's GalNac than ARWR's DPC? Again, what am I not understanding?
Question: Why does Investron constantly decry what he repeatedly calls "circle jerk" posts? (After all, Investron is the king of posting pointless drivel punctuated with ad hominem attacks for no reason other than infantile amusement and attention seeking.)
a. Investron's posts are viewed as irrelevant by the vast majority of ARWR message board readers/posters. This fact is intensely painful for investron as he is desperate to feel relevant (on an anonymous message board no less!).
b. As self-proclaimed Fearless Leader, Captain and Head Cheerleader of ARWR, Investron is intensely jealous of hparch who garners quite a lot admiration from ARWR longs.
c. Investron is upset he is not at the center of the "circle jerk" (a disturbing but entirely apt image. By posting his pointless and mean-spirited abuse, Investron becomes the focus of his own self-centered "circle jerk.")
d. All of the above.
Nothing I have said should be construed as a criticism of ARWR or that I am bearish on it.
Rather, I am taking to task investron's claims and assertions which he presents as both factual and unassailable but are mostly just figments of his imagination. He is a fantasist and a mean-spirited one at that.
With regard to your statement that "If the ship goes down, then I go down." I hope this is hyperbole. No investor should ever invest more than s/he can manage to lose without suffering a life changing loss. Discipline must always trump conviction.
Good luck to you.
holdencf, I took issue with your blanket statement about ALNY's GalNAc chemistry being untested in humans, etc. I challenged that and pointed to ALN-TTRsc in phase 3. In response to my original challenge you now quote an unidentified passage from ALNY's website. This unidentified quote refers to ALNY's "most advanced" GalNAc chemistry called ESC-GalNAc which is not yet in humans. I had specifically mentioned TTRsc but you ignored that reference in my original post and now try to shift the focus from GalNAcs in general to "their most advanced delivery technology."
I am disappointed with your response. Rather than simply admit that you were mistaken or overreached or whatever, you staked out a position and then defended it with sleight of hand tactics against the evidence.
People interested in reading more about ALNY's ESC-GalNAc chemistry versus their less potent GalNAc chemistry currently used in human phase 3 can start with ALNY's pr dated 5-11-2014 "Alnylam Presents Key Scientific Data on Enhanced Stabilization Chemistry (ESC)-GalNAc-Conjugate Technology."
Please accept the following comments in the spirit of good faith discourse and exchange of views.
I cautiously couched my initial comment here for fear that what I thought was simply a fundamental understanding of how the FDA works (i.e., the need to prove the safety of new delivery compounds like a DPC 2.0 before advancing same in later stage trials) was somehow mistaken.
While I appreciate your willingness in this instance to say you might be wrong, what strikes me about many of the posters on this board, and I include you in this category, is a willingness to make statements that are simply factually wrong or are based on fundamental misunderstandings. Almost always, this tendency skews in favor of supporting a bullish story in favor of ARWR.
You are seen by many readers here as the leader of this board. What you say is adopted as gospel by many of these readers. As such, I believe you have a responsibility to refrain from posting assertions unless you are absolutely sure of the accuracy of those assertions or have included appropriate caveats to alert the reader.
In a stunning turn around, investron, the message board troll who haunts the ARWR board, has a new revelation.
After claiming "it is all about the science," the self-appointed spokesman for science, now says "it has nothing to do with the science."
The impact of investron's change of heart was immediate and profound. investron's latest revelation has turned the ARWR investing world upside down.
Reaction from investors in ARWR ranged from silence to shocked amazement:
"Huh? You're kidding, right?" said a stunned TruthTracer. After reading investron's newest revelations for himself, the ARWR poster affectionately referred to as The Truth said, "This is big. I just wish he had figured this out when he was pounding the table on ARWR in the $20's or even in the teens. That cost me a lot of money. But still you have to admire investron. He supports ARWR without regard to facts and I like that."
"Isn't that a flip flop?" cried End2War. "He changed his mind so that's definitely a flip flop! investron regularly castigates me for changing my mind and all I do is try to honestly consider the pros and cons of ARWR as an investment. And now he is doing a complete 180 and the peanut gallery is going gaga. I don't get it. I just don't get it."
(Cont. in next post)
Thanks. I took your advise. In the interim, I was contacted by one of the ir people. Basically, I was told UNIS doesn't provide tours of its facility on a one-off basis but if and when management selects a day to provide tours to a group, I will be informed.
Great post about your involvement with ARWR's BOD, interactions with C.A., etc. Although I certainly cannot confirm the accuracy of your story, it rang true to me. Therefore, I think it is great that you posted this info and post your opinions on this board.
A couple of questions:
1. I think you may have posted this elsewhere, but what is your educational background?
2. What other stocks do you like and, if you are so inclined, please say why and to what extent you are bullish on whatever names you mention.
3. Given the often dysfunctional, petty and ignorant nature of many of the posts here, why do you bother to post? (I'm just curious.)
I seem to recall that AS said the contract(s) have a clause permitting the pharmas out of their K's if AS is replaced. Perhaps I am naive but I don't think we will see any real takeover action without AS pulling the strings. I also feel quite sure that AS will get all of his options exercised or he will do his utmost to block any takeover. JMO.
While I don't recall holdencf claiming to have been a member of ARWR's board and therefore believe you are mistaken on that point, the tenor and tone of his posts on this board tell me he is a flake (i.e., bombastic, strident and erratically unreliable). I questioned him closely and found his answers decidedly lacking in actual knowledge and completely lacking in candor. He made broad sweeping claims that he couldn't back up. His ranting and raving on this board about communism, socialism and the lazy work habits of the Greeks tells me his internal compass is "broken." I think he is one of those posters more interested in trying to impress others than in keeping abreast of his investment in ARWR.
In other words, your instincts that there is something deeply suspect about holdencf are, in my opinion, correct.
P.S. I believe I was the poster who originally asked holdencf why he bothered to post on this board. This followed his recitation a couple of weeks ago of the history of ARWR that I said "had the ring of truth." Regrettably, I no longer hold that view.
Investron, your comments are pure bunk.
"I have repeatedly observed how he unloaded while telling people to buy and loading up while telling people to get out.
"Specific examples with regard to ARWR: While telling followers that ARWR would be $200 within a year, Dirk dumped what he bought around $2 at around $9 and rolled the loot into TKMR at the end of 2013."
This is pure nonsense.
I followed DH's comments closely and do not ever recall him saying that his price target for ARWR was $200. I recall his price target being $30 set in early summer 2013 when ARWR was around $2. (Pretty good call by any standards.) (If you're right, you should be able to easily give us a quote with a date DH made the statement so readers can actually confirm your claim. After all his entire blog is available to anyone online.)
Stop blaming others for you being clueless about the ways of Wall Street.
Different slide deck but point taken. Still, Moldova is not a first world nation with first world standards of reliability. Part of former Soviet Union so still a red flag for me.
ALNY has at least 5 subcutaneously administered compounds in the clinic (i.e., in man) right now.
Despite the fact that you claim "ALNY's website still has the product pipeline bar chart in the 'development category,'" other sections of their website as well as press releases clearly show/state that the following compounds are administered subcutaneously:
1. Phase 3 clinical trial of revusiran in transthyretin (TTR)-mediated familial amyloidotic cardiomyopathy (FAC);
2. Phase 1/2 trial of ALN-CC5;
3. Phase 1 clinical trial with ALN-AS1;
4. Phase 1 clinical trial with ALN-PCSsc; and
5. Phase 1 study for ALN-AT3.
Questions that Should be Asked during the next UNIS Conference Call
1. Pursuant to the terms of the global strategic agreement with AbbVie entered into on January 15, 2015:
a. Has UNIS received the $5 million payment from ABBV for the exclusive right to form and enter into a mutually-agreeable development and supply agreement with Unilife?
b. Is there a time frame or date by which the development and supply agreement must be finalized and executed? If so, what is that date?
c. Can you provide any additional color regarding the timing and status of those negotiations with ABBV?
(Anyone else have any suggested questions?)