Now you know why noone cares about AGEN.
Over 90% of AGEN's pre-clinical and clinical programs are based on the extract of an unpatentable herb. Over 30 of their programs. Basically, their entire portfolio comes from qs-21.
Still waiting on your apology.
Over 90% of AGEN's pre-clinical and clinical programs are based on the extract of an unpatentable herb. AGEN could very easily do all the work and then have all kinds of other companies make a different adjuvant but based on the same herbal extract. And that's the good news if the darn thing works.
All of this limits what AGEN can charge for the QS21 adjuvant because too high and it's worth it for other companies to purchase or make their own Qujilla plant extract (AGEN's QS-21).
Posting this because most people think QS-21 is some drug AGEN created. Nope, it's just a proprietary extract of a readily available unpatentable herb that anyone can buy on the internet. They bought the rights to the herb extract, QS-21 13 years ago for next to nothing. This is why AGEN looks cheap with so many P3 trials. The smart money knows QS-21 can never be a massive money maker due to the lack of barriers to entry for competitors because it's just an herb extract.
QS-21 which is atleast 7 of their late stage products. Are you denying that? Google it if you don't believe me. I'm not talking about Prophage et al.
You guys do realize that basically AGEN's entire product portfolio is simply an herbal extract additive to a vaccine, right?
All they do is buy the plant extract and then add it to a vaccine. I'm not even sure if their patents can protect their products from other companies. Just an FYI if you didn't already know.
Nothing would make this stock explode more than a TV commercial blitz showing hot people touting Belviq as their secret. You get that an it could test the multi-year highs.
Expect nothing to happen or just more wallstreet games until then because it won't be until the 17th that there will be a report ready showing the initial scripts at launch. And even then you can't read that much into it because big money will be looking for the growth rate of the scripts from week to week so that pushes it out to June 24th and July 1st before the big money will have enough information to decide if ARNA is worth 2Billion, 1 Billion, or 4 Billion. Again, sorry to readjust everyone's big expectations surrounding this week.
If anything, tomorrow and the days that follow will present an opportunity for a hedge fund to run some stops to the downside.
The only thing that get's this train back on the track are stellar script numbers week after week after week. Without very strong growth in weekly scripts, the malaise will continue. Sad but true. This is put up or shut up time and we should know within 30 days which of those to do.
FWIW, I know someone right now who's ortho surgery was delayed to give the patient time to lose weight so the operation will be safer and easier. Someone needs to call Arna and strongly express the above fact to them.
It's also not priced in that they will have to compete with a safer product that costs half as much which is coming soon.
The majority of scripts do not convert to paying customers so you should probably quit trying to deceive people by giving script numbers and passing them off as actually being filled. Even when you assume their given per week numbers, this still puts them around half of their stated 300 patient goal by the end of the year. When the analysts and public figure that little gem out........lookout below. Downward gap fill.
What I think people are getting confused with is that the company hyped that they had 185 scripts but in reality, 110 of those scripts ended up going worthless as only 75 of those turned into actual customers in 2013. Then they gave this figure of 300 customers in 2013 but this again is probably the script number of 300 which at the actual conversion ratio of 40% into actual customers predicts an eventual customer base of 120 by the end of 2012.
And if there are more patients as the company claims then Insurance will be even more inclined to remove coverage. Part of the reason they previously allowed coverage in the first place is because there are so few patients.
Company says they have 75 customers so far in 2013, but somehow claim this will grow to 300 by the end of the year when in reality they are far behind schedule to make anywhere close to 300 customers in 2013.
Will the stock get cut in half when they only produce 150 customers for 2013?
If that's not overvalued, I don't know what is.