So far ARNA and VVUS have both had failed obesity drug launches and this has affected their bottom line, As well as brought in big shorts to the entire obesity sector. VVUS is running huge losses and their biggest moneymaker to date has been to do secondary offerings that have richly rewarded the company and kept it alive until now. Arena, who runs smaller losses than VVUS has recently caught on to VVUS' technique and recently pumped the company in order to grab a 110 million dollar lifeline via a secondary offering. Neither drug has any prospect of ever becoming profitable and the secondary money grabs by management have proven to be the single best ideas and best business executions that they have made.
In contrast OREX's drug launch has been stellar and Contrave is in line to have the greatest marketshare of all 3 drugs within 2 months. The result of this is a company that is actually profitable right now. As Contrave sales rise the effect of leverage will begin to kick in which will spike profits much faster going forward. Most do not realize this and are still pricing OREX like an ARNA or VVUS with muted profit expectations.
Add in the fact that OREX will have a monopoly on the entire EU and we have a scenario where OREX could begin bringing in strong profits and given the amount of shares short the obesity space, a short squeeze could triple their market capitalization sometime over the next 12 months.
OREX is a Strong Buy on all weakness and as Contrave continues its current script trajectory OREX is a Strong Buy at the market.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Looks like Contrave might pass up Belviq and become the script leader in just 4-5 more weeks. Maybe sooner. All while still sporting a mkcap at half of ARNA and owning all of Europe to themselves. Seems like OREX is a good buy here once Europe is in the bag.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We all know you will need to do atleast 1 and probably a couple of follow on offerings to have operating cash to pay your salaries and finish your studies. Can you just raise all your cash now and get it over with because noone want's to be holding your bag when you print your money?
This is what the beginning of big money accumulation looks like. It might run all the way to $4 before it takes a true breather. Then it will be up to Su to close a sale or reveal the new products they are working on to make it go higher.
$8 target is possible if CEO Su can show that she has turned the ship and post steady profits under the new corporate structure.
Well that will be never. Jack owns a piddlance of ARNA and dumps his options. A study showed that companies where CEO owned very little shares.......underperformed companies where the CEOs owned alot of shares.
As I told the board. You've seen the highs for the year which was known by the ARNA execs and is why they sold. Without a massive turnaround in Belviq sales, the only thing that matters is finding out when they will release P2 results on adp334 and wait a long time for that. Until then it is just more big cash burn and fat salary checks which is all Jack cares about.
Because to do a celebrity endorser you need to pay for expensive TV spots and until yesterday Belviq only ran after midnight for cheap.
Personally I think buying millions in google adwords for anything nutrition, food, health or fat related is a better move but what do I know. I only bought puts on ARNA at $6.20 because I suspected Lief was propping the stock up for a secondary and those puts are now up near 100% already.
...and we know there are ALOT of you here.
1. Not now.
2. Buy when it nears the 12 month low which is in the low 3's.
3. or Buy (as a gamble) just before the Phase II study data on ADP334 is to be released which is a long long way off.
4. or Buy only if PII data on ADP334 confirms the P1 result.
5. or if miraculously script grow rates begin posting 20%-30%+ gains each and every week, then get in.
6. But right now all should just be copying the company and management and selling every share they own right here right now because this was an engineered pop just so the execs could sell out.
Shareholders will continue to get bent over to pay Jack's fat salary yet again.
Why you ask?
Because they can and will.
Selling over 10% of the company after an 80% rise was a smart move on managements part but as I pointed out in an earlier thread, Knowing that ARNA execs planned the entire press release wave from December on for the specific purpose of popping the stock up so they could dilute is a very clear sign that they know shareholders are at the bottom on the barrel.
In fact it is criminal what the selling execs have done but the planning was probably done outside of emails that could be used against them.
My lure was weeks ago exposing the possibility of ARNA execs pumping their own stock JUST SO THEY COULD DO THE DILUTION AND ALSO DUMP THEIR OWN SHARES AT ABOVE $6.
The fact that you put your head in the sand is why all the longs are now down $1.50 in just days while the execs dumped to all the longs at the highs of the year.
Now that is has been revealed that the ADP news wasn't just some data they just discovered but was actually a coordinated data release specifically to pump the stock so the company and execs could dump shares at higher prices.
Is it criminal? maybe, but the cat is out of the bag now and drifting downward is where the gravity lies given that the adp news was mostly a planned setup.
It's exactly what Jack and the execs who dumped thought it was going to be. They did, in fact plan it all.
The flurry of press releases the release of data on adp334 all just before the conference. It was all a manufactured, planned move by arena management to
1. Pop the stock up so the company and management could both dump arena shares.
The insider sales should be considered insider trading because even when they setup the sales, they knew they were about to pump the stock to dilute shareholders.
I told everyone this a month ago.
Yet another piece of helpful advice from me that was turned a blind eye to by atleast 7, now proven very dumb longs.
Haha atleast 6 downvotes from delusional longs. This is proof you should do the opposite of what your instincts are if you want to profit from investing.
POSTED IT JANUARY 7th. Took them less than 10 business days.
Of course Jack was going to run for the money the moment he got any gain out of ARNA. Only delusional longs would think otherwise.
I've been to South Korea. The men drink alot. The Women are hot. And noone is obese.
Vanity is big in Korea, but it mainly applies to looking less asian.
TLDR. Don't expect much.
The fact that investors don't like what you said doesn't change the fact that it is true.