Itsa, My first buy in Feb 2013 was $2.23. After Alan's May 2013 announcement I traded the stock on several occasions, as it wavered between $3.00-$3.50. In my mind, it all boils down to whether you believe there's enough evidence that the company will, at some point, announce a series of production contracts. I happen to believe they will and still feel comfortable that I will eventually see the SP at $8.00-$10.00.
Five contracts were announced, just a fact. We're purportedly nearing production/delivery for HIKMA; new lines are being installed (an expense UNIS would not make unless they can foresee the need); they have been consistently hiring new staff, including dozens of engineering types. While the drifting SP is nerve-wracking, I believe there's ample evidence that the company is much stronger today than it was when I made my initial investment. Admittedly, I haven't added to my position within the past few months, but if the SP continues to drift downward, I will make another buy.
As you know, much (an understatement) has been made of Alan's exuberant remarks. I try to look at the investment pragmatically; that is, I take Alan's past comments out of the equation and look at the company prospects without the hype. Personally, I believe there are sufficient reasons to indicated long-term growth. I have difficulty imagining that a company that has been successful in landing five contracts with leading Pharmas is not capable of landing many more. Time will tell, huh?
Gagsforever... If you do make some money on your short position, may I suggest that enrolling in an "English as a Second Language" course would be a smart professional investment.
ACRX's drop-off is in line with the drop in the broader biotech sector. Nothing magic about the hype offered by the shorts. They're just taking advantage of the down-tick in the sector. Nothing's changed with ACRX. They will have their day before the FDA and, personally, I think approval is highly probable. Sufenatil is a known quantity. It works and the delivery method is sound.
Annie, Greetings! I sold my ACRX shares a few months back to use my funds elsewhere until the PDUFA neared. I wasn't sure if I could get back in, but these prices are a bargain. Just purchased my position this morning and happy to say I'm back. Hey, worse case, at least you have someone else to talk to, rather than the doorknobs who have taken over the board in recent months!
Itsa... Still invested and will stay in for the long haul. Just not a lot to say, in light of tight trading range. This is the same as last year, when the SP traded between $3.00 and $3.50 for several months. I will wait for the next announcements, whenever they come.
Chuka, I hear you on the bored bit. If I had just one dollar for every time I checked the news since January I would have a healthy bank account :)
Itsa, Been an interesting day. Heavy trades at the open (approx. 232k shares), then another 100k+ at the close and 100k+ in after hours. You have a good weekend too.
Haven't received any form of compensation from anyone, other than from my investments and my web business... though I did save 15% on my car insurance!
I agree with you comment on civil debate and feel a good place to start is not personalizing your comments about specific posters. You want to ask questions and determine their motives. Fine, but understand, those to whom you ask the question may or may not be interested in answering you for a host of reasons. If they don't choose to answer, it's inappropriate to draw conclusions re. their motives.
Over the past months you have asked me several questions. Some I have answered and some I have not. You may have taken my lack of response as a clear indication of my motives when, truth be told, I chose not to reply because your questions were frequently more like a homework assignment than a question.
Personally I like the members of this board. I am constantly learning from others, with a special nod to Kirk Bidel, Itsalongroad and Minnie (come back Minnie), but I also pick up useful information from many others, even you! I could just do without the drama.
Karl, This sort of badgering, coupled with the presumption that you have any right to question the integrity of any poster has already all-but-ruined your reputation on Hot Copper. Keep it up and the same will happen here, not because I say so, but because it's not now, nor has it ever been, necessary to be confrontational all of the time. My advice, stick to the company and the stock.
It's one thing to disagree, even strongly, with another person's position or opinion on a stock. It's quite another thing to slander or question another poster's integrity. We are all effectively anonymous bloggers who happen to share a common interest on a company (whether that interest is long or short). You are a blogger, nothing more. You're not truth's avenger.
Like it or not, we must take each others comments at face value. Hiding behind that anonymity to attack another poster's integrity, when you don't know the poster any better than we know you is not only unnecessarily confrontational, it's a bit sleazy.
Rather than constantly seeking confrontation, how about trying to venture an original opinion on the stock, or the company's prospects.
Not sure what happened to your post, but thanks for posting. Very good read. There should be a disclaimer box you have to click, signifying that you have read and understand the contents before creating your user name :)
Odd. You portray yourself as the seeker of hard facts, but in this case you appear to have more than enough time to lay out some half-baked innuendo (which you full-well know you cannot support with facts), but ironically you lack the time to do the research to back up your claims.
Karl, You well know that Unilife's press release, dated 22 April (Unilife Responds to Malicious Blogs), clearly stated "Unilife has never paid anyone to publish articles about it."
Perhaps you should take the time to read it, as it was directed at folks who perpetuate unsubstantiated rumors and innuendo under the guise of being a disgruntled and "betrayed" long-term investor.
Sounds very much like the actions of a short, masquerading as a long. Thought so for months.
You've presented a fallacious argument. "ASSUMING UNIS hits $5 again by 2016."... You're setting up an unfavorable proposition based wholly on supposition and then offering options based on that unfavorable proposition. One could just as easily say "ASSUMING UNIS hits $5.00 again by July or August, 2014, who buys more?" You might as well have ask "If you were adrift in the ocean, would you fight to stay afloat as long as possible before inevitably succumbing to a watery grave, or would you just give up and drown as soon as possible?'
As for "if and when it hits $5.00 again", you neglected to mention the steadily-increasing interest by institutions, or their consensus 1 year target of $7.13. Nor did you make note of the recent upgrades by Leerink Swann or Jefferies Group. Guess these facts didn't support your thesis.
As for your assertion that we would expect "palpable" selling pressure if the share price reached $5.00, I suggest that if production is executed on schedule with no major hiccups and a couple of new contracts are announced, the increased interest in the stock by retail and institutional investors alike, and resulting share price appreciation would be "palpable".
Itsa, Morning to you. I admit to having to remind myself that UNIS is a speculative venture. The next couple of years will probably have plenty of bumps in the road. Of all of the discussion points you find on blogs, competition is one of the ones least mentioned (though it has been a topic on HC recently). To lull oneself into complacency is probably a mistake.Hopefully (and I believe there's a good chance that this will be the case), there will also be a few high points along the way and opportunities to profit. Have a good weekend.
Itsa, I completely agree that Alan has brought on much of the consternation we see. I also agree he's likely been duly chastised by those whose influence he can't ignore. Still, few would argue that Alan isn't the typical CEO.
I give him high points for tenacity. He's been with the company since the beginning. It's likely that the very qualities for which he has taken much criticism of late, are the same qualities that enabled him to slog it out from one crisis to the next for 12-13 years. It's hard for me to imagine he doesn't take it all very personally
Don't get me wrong. I'm happy that he's toned down the rhetoric of late. I'm as tired of the roller coaster ride as the next guy. Nevertheless, while Alan may have, of necessity, modified his behavior, I doubt that he's entirely changed his spots. Whether good or bad, I think there's a good chance we'll see the old Alan resurface, especially if he has one or more substantive announcements. That's not an endorsement, just an observation.
I think you answered your own question in your earlier post. Without news (in the form of contract announcements or the beginning of production) there's little impetus to buy or cover. Don't kid yourself though, the regulars are still here, waiting patiently for the next news. Ironically, though my investment in UNIS is by far my largest, I am less stressed about its eventual outcome than I am with any of the others.
BTW, although I have read discussions about "inevitable" short squeezes with three stocks I have owned, I have yet to see one.
Just one last observation. While Alan takes a lot of grief about perceived eccentricities and flair for the dramatic... that can cut both ways. I wouldn't put it past him to shake everyone with a series of well-timed announcements. Drama can be good sometimes! Regards, Biowatch90