Just keep throwing stuff at the wall and I'm sure eventually something will stick. Personally, I think it will close at $2.80 or $2.85 or $2.90 or $3.00 or $3.05 or $3.10 or $3.15 or $3.20. Watch and learn ;)
OK Chuck, here's my explanation. Admittedly, I am a novice at this, so I would appreciate hearing what other long posters, i.e. Minnie, East Texas, Bbower, Danny, Kirk, ITSA75 or others think.
Investor events, such as quarterly earnings, annual meetings and conference presentations all hold the potential of good news. During the past couple of years Unilife has timed contract announcements (deals) to coincide with these events on more than a few occasions.
Shorts tend to become very active the day or two before an investor event in an attempt to drive the price down to offset potential good news. Then, should a deal be announced or other positive bit of data be released, the resulting appreciation in share price only increases value to prior pre-news levels.
If good news is released, share price volume spikes with longs exceeding shorts. After the market has digested the news, volume decreases to low levels during the ensuing days, at which time shorts begin to incrementally chip away at the SP over a period of days.
That's my take. Interested in others opinions. GL
Jimpilner, In the slide presentation delivered at the Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference, Slide No. 7 indicates that the ASP (average selling price) for Occular Delivery devices ranges between $40.00 and $200.00, with a note that the price is "often over $100.00." You can view the presentation and slide on Unilife's Investor page.
Danny, can't argue that sooner is better than later, but I think it's a stretch to suggest that a handful of announcements over the past 18 months demonstrates a historical pattern." I'm pretty sure that Regeneron, or any other pharma for that matter, will announce when it's in their best interest to do so, irrespective of the season. Besides, wringing one's hands over a perceived delay is no more productive than straining credulity by suggesting that blockbuster deals are imminent. They'll happen, in some cases when drug/device combo trials are complete, or medical device trials finish, or with the completion of usability studies etc. July's a looong way away. If the Orbimed deal, Sanofi announcement, partnering with Flextronics and yesterday's Depot-ject deal prove anything, they demonstrate that we are poor prognosticators and frequently the beneficiaries of surprises.
Danny, Shorts have been waving the red flag of dilution and bankruptcy for the last 18 months. Per Alan in the 1st Qrt Earnings call "On track to generate at least $30 million in cash receipts from customers
during the final three quarters of Fiscal Year 2015." Also, per yesterday's Depot-ject deal "Unilife will begin to generate revenue from the customer program this quarter via an upfront fee and customization payments."
I'm always glad to hear of new contracts and am confident we'll eventually see some blockbuster deals in the coming weeks or months. Like all prior deals, they'll happen when they happen. Until then I think Alan has demonstrated that he is capable of managing cash. Not sure I understand your rising concern.
With respect, then I suggest that you buy General Foods. Unilife is in the development stage and will deliver all that you have mentioned mention incrementally (and for years thereafter), but if you want a faster, more predictable, near-term return you might want to invest elsewhere.
Stay invested in Unilife and you might develop carpal tunnel syndrome typing all of those exclamation points!!!
When I first invested in Unilife in February 2013, I was fortunate to catch the May run-up to $3.94 or so. For the ensuing year I played the swings while waiting for the "knock-out punch"; the mega-deal that would propel Unilife stock to $6-8- or $10.00. While several deals were announced, momentum was tempered by the short's hold on the stock. With 23 million shares short, it's clear that they are going to be with us for a while.
As an individual investor, my attitude toward Unilife has, I think, evolved. I no longer wait anxiously for the single "knock-out" deal that will suddenly propel the SP to new heights. I have come to see Unilife as a long-play. That shift hasn't eroded my confidence in the success of the company. In fact, as I continue to do my due diligence, my confidence is bolstered.
I personally have little doubt that we will see Alan be vested in his four millionth share, as the SP reaches $12.00, but it's going to take time and a combination of lucrative deals and a gradual ramp-up in production.
While today's announcement isn't a blockbuster, it's still a good thing. Yes, more details would have been nice, but we'll eventually know them. In the meantime it represents another step forward, another brick added to the foundation.
In the coming couple of weeks (depending on the SP) I plan to increase my investment in Unilife by 40%
Same to you Minnie. Best to you and your family. I echo your sentiment to all of our fellow longs on this board. Happy Thanksgiving!
Hey, thanks for taking the time. I'll read more, but with your explanation I at least understand more than I did. Seems like it's a recent development with UNIS, as I first noticed this pattern only within the past 2-3 weeks.
Easttexasdoug, Hi. Could you elaborate a little on the computer trading pattern you are referring to? I'm lost :) Thanks, Biowatch
We have heard that tired drumbeat for a year; Dilution! Insolvency! Bankruptcy! Share priece going to zero! Unilife has, and continues to sign huge deals.
While revenue has lagged, due to necessary R&D and ramping up for production, all but the blind (or those with a short position) can see that, once production begins in earnest, the revenue stream will be huge and sustained for more than a decade. And, several blockbuster deals are around the corner. True, they can never come fast enough for long-term longs, but each time a new deal is announced it has far-reaching benefits for years.
Michaelhunt, Taking a look at your collective posts (all seven of them), it's abundantly clear your agenda is nothing more than an attempt to lower the SP through a series of unsubstantiated, uninformed bashes... but you know that already, don't you?
I hate to suggest this, but maybe it's time to call on Nutstobolts! If I recall, he said he had lots and lots and lots of money :) Have a good weekend!
In June 2014, Sanofi/Regeneron announced the completion of the first Ph3 trial for Salirumab, for the treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis.
Currently Sanofi/Regeneron are recruiting for a "Multicenter, randomized, open-label, parallel-group Usability Study of the Sarilumab Auto-Injector Device and a Pre-filled Syringe in patients with moderate to severe active rheumatoid arthritis." One criteria used for inclusion in the study is whether the "Patient (is) willing and able to self-inject."
The complete study can be found by searching "SAR153191" on the ClinicalTrials dot gov website, under the title "To Evaluate Sarilumab - SAR153191 (REGN88) - Auto-injector Device In Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis"
Sanofi/Regeneron's drug Dupilumab entered Ph3 trials in late October. It can potentially treat multiple indications, including atopic dermatitis, asthma and chronic sinusitis with nasal polyposis and, if approved, would qualify as a blockbuster. Based on positive PH1 & 2 results, the FDA has granted Breakthrough Status.
To date there has been no indication that Unilife is involved in the Dupilumab trials. However, it is significant, in that it represents the third of three potential blockbuster drugs, including Eylea Pre-filled and Alirocumab (PSCK9) currently being developed by the Sanofi/Regeneron partnership. One can reasonably speculate that, given Sanofi's long-standing relationship with Unilife, all three drugs may be using Unilife products during development. Time will tell.
So You Want to Be a Basher?
Want to be a Unilife Basher, but don’t feel you have the technical knowledge or credentials to pull it off? No worries! The great thing about bashing is that you can say anything you want, not matter how outlandish, and never have to support your comments with facts.
It’s easy. The following techniques can have you bashing like a pro in minutes... after all, you can’t be wrong when you’re just making stuff up!
Break the Good News Rhythm
Good news is the archenemy of bashers, so you must learn to act fast. Whether there’s a new contract announcement, analyst upgrade or a new strategic alliance, it’s important that you inject negative comments into the conversation as early, and as often, as possible. Once you get the hang of it, you can do it on several blogs using different names.
Timing is Everything
To be a good basher you need to place a negative post on blogs shortly before the market opens. That way, anyone stopping by to read the morning’s chatter on the company will see your negative comments first.
Dilution, Dilution, Dilution
Nothing shakes investor confidence like the spectre of dilution... so mention it often! You can say “the company’s running out of money”, or “a dilution will happen before the end of the quarter, or better yet, “the company will likely go bankrupt .” Basically, you can say anything you want... just say it often!
Make it Personal
Always save some space for a few derogatory remarks about the CEO; the more personal they are, the better. “AS/BS” is a good one. We use it everywhere. We think it’s clever and, well, it rhymes!
Itsalongroad75, If SP volatility is set aside for the sake of discussion, I personally think we are in a good place. Will the next announcement be one of the two WI deals (as big, or bigger than the Sanofi deal), or will we hear the details of the Ocu-ject deal, or PCSK9. With 15 deals in the pipeline, I feel confident we are in store for a couple of surprises. Even with the SP fluctuation and the short's games, I can begin to envision a point in time when a sufficient number of deals are disclosed that the market take serious notice.
Hey Main! See you're still peddling the "AS/BS" mantra. If I recall, that was the gist of your message last year.... before Novartis, Medimmune, Hikma, Sanofi, the undisclosed Ocu-ject deal and impending WI deals... before the factory expansion or staff build-up or most of the remaining 15 deals in the works
I have no issue with you taking an opposing view, just rhink you might want to freshen up your message.