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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

birdluck1 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 23, 2015 1:15 PM Member since: Oct 7, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Defending Foulger

    by jmyduce Feb 5, 2015 11:23 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Mar 23, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    I second your opinion about Davis. I have consistantly purchased RAS on dips based on my careful reading of his analysis. There are very few posters on financial boards as diligent and rational as he is. I am a loser on paper with RAS, since I started buying at 8.30, but I sleep well, knowing that Davis has made it possible for me to perform my due diligence and arrive at rational decisions regarding risk vs. reward. Like Davis, I have a buy order in at 6.50.

  • birdluck1 by birdluck1 Mar 5, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    After reading one your of DAR's posts in Oct while on a vacation trip, I purchased an additional 4000 shares of NSAM at 17.75. It paid for my trip ten times over. Thanks again for sharing your knowledge of NRF and NSAM. I greatly appreciate it.

  • Reply to

    First Solar and Sun Power YieldCo

    by electricquad Feb 24, 2015 3:38 PM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Feb 24, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    YieldCo will likely own its own assets using unsecured debt, raising equity to purchase the assets that First Solar drops down. So it likely mean loss of future business with First Solar, but not competition.

  • Reply to

    Hasi may be risky

    by alschroed Feb 19, 2015 10:05 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Feb 19, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Correction: Make that 97% investment grade credits. 46% government.

  • Reply to

    Hasi may be risky

    by alschroed Feb 19, 2015 10:05 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Feb 19, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    94% of the credit obligations are with investment grade entities, many of which are government entities. Read the presentations on the HASI website so that you may be better informed.

  • Reply to

    This pop in Hasi is from Brad Thomas saying to buy

    by donatt7 Feb 13, 2015 10:42 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Feb 13, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Not to denigrate Brad, whom I respect, but he does not move the market this way. Over 4 times the normal volume suggests an institutional block purchase going on all day.

  • Reply to

    Retail / Grocery properties

    by old9guy Feb 6, 2015 7:04 PM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Feb 11, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    The details on the shopping center properties is in the last report. They have not said what the planned size of these assets would need to be for a spin off.

  • Reply to

    New shares good or bad?

    by coolitads Feb 5, 2015 1:55 PM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Feb 5, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    Doc is making highly accretive acquisitions with the money raised from follow on offerings. That is always good for the shareholders. At the rate DOC is growing, it is likely to achieve investment grade debt rating by the end of this year, and ultimately be priced with a yield close to 4%, like VTR and HCN. Once that happens, they will increase the dividend.

  • Reply to

    Very Odd Real Estate Holdings At DOC

    by palinbigbazzoo Jan 16, 2015 11:54 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Jan 16, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    The DOC business plan is specifically to buy many small properties, but they are carefully chosen from the best locations near major medical centers, and with strong doctor groups. This is allowing them to get much better returns than with larger facilities than the big Medical Reits purchase. You clearly have not read any of the presentations of financial reports to make such an uninformed statement. Are you perhaps hoping to short this stock? And where in the world did you get the crazy idea that they acquired a 300 sq ft building. 30,000 sq ft is on the small side for their acquisitions

  • DOC did a great job with timing the offering with the announcement of reaching 1 billion size. Perhaps that is why the stock price is holding so well today. I was hoping to pick up some more at below 16, but that seems unlikely now. DOC management is impressive. I wish I had purchased twice as much at 13 last year.

  • Reply to

    Moving

    by conjourtj82 Dec 29, 2014 8:40 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Jan 14, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    Yes you are correct, a price of 19 will yield 4.6%, which is comparable to the yield on HCN and VTR.

  • Reply to

    Moving

    by conjourtj82 Dec 29, 2014 8:40 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Jan 14, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    My prediction on the offering was pretty close. It looks like it will price at about 16.25 tomorrow. Great news on reaching one billion mark. Investment grade debt will be achieved this year, and DOC should trade with 4.5% yield.

  • Reply to

    In for 5K shares at 6.87..easy money

    by stablestock Jan 13, 2015 11:36 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Jan 14, 2015 3:55 PM Flag

    Meant to write 6.70, not 7.

  • Reply to

    In for 5K shares at 6.87..easy money

    by stablestock Jan 13, 2015 11:36 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Jan 14, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    Had a order for few thousand at 7.00 in all day, but only had 1200 executed.

  • I think MWE could partner with EMG on a couple of current expansions and new facilities in order to boost current cash flow. Certainly EMG has been willing in the past. I do not think the distribution will be increased more than 1-3 % until oil and gas prices recover.

  • Reply to

    Loan payoff seems to be well received news

    by kenpalley2000 Dec 29, 2014 10:56 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Jan 9, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    Considering that two members of senior management have shopping center and retail experince, I view this activity as positive, particularly as these purchases are highly oportunistic and selective.
    I really like this REIT and have recently purchased 30,000 shares. I also own similar amounts of IRT and BRG. I am also heavily invested in energy MLPs, which thankfully I purchased at 2010 prices.

  • Reply to

    Moving

    by conjourtj82 Dec 29, 2014 8:40 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Jan 8, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    I have spoken to management about plans for 2015, and it is to grow as fast as possible until they reach investment grade, which is 1to 2 billion. I don't expect an increase in the dividend until that happens. I expect another offering by February.

  • Reply to

    Bought 8k at under $7.07

    by its_not_my_business_but Jan 7, 2015 11:11 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Jan 7, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    Added some at 7.01, next buy if it hits 6.80.

  • I take the liberty here of reposting an excellent overview of the effect of the SEC settlement, written by davisfoulger after it was announced.:

    Two months ago, just after RAS announced its SEC settlement, I said that "six months is a long time in the stock market" and suggested there would be ongoing price pressure until RAS reported it's 1Q results. Hence yesterday's nonsense-fest. It's worth repeating, however, the things that should happen in 1Q:

    1 - RAS bottom line (net income or GAAP earnings) will turn positive. My assessment is that this will happen no later than 1Q 2015. Indeed, without the SEC settlement, RAS came close in 3Q (a two cent a share loss). Without the Tabernas, earnings would have been about 10 cents per share. 1Q could easily be higher than that.

    2 - FFO will also turn significantly positive. Without the SEC settlement or the Tabernas, FFO would have been about 21 cents a share in 3Q.

    3 - AFFO will change very little. Without the Tabernas AFFO would have been 30 cents in 3Q and could be as high as 34 cents in 1Q. AFFO isn't as effective in discounting the Tabernas as CAD is, but it's pretty effective.

    4 - CAD won't be affected by closing out the Taberna and could be as high as 30 cents by 1Q.

    All of which looks good so long as you are looking out towards 1Q. We've already seen the effect of the SEC announcement, with a drop into the high $6 range, but there will be continuing attempts (as we had yesterday, to misrepresent what is happening and try to push the price down. It wasn't effective, probably because prices are already low, but I we certainly have another ex-div and the 4Q results left to report before RAS is likely to see a strong move to higher prices. In the meantime, a push down attempt could happen at any time. I have cash set aside against that possibility.

    Longer term, I expect that positive net income and FFO will move the price up significantly as the yield falls to around 7%, but that's next year.

  • Reply to

    DAR NSAM question

    by ruswise Dec 30, 2014 11:56 AM
    birdluck1 birdluck1 Dec 31, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    One factor to consider in choosing NRF vs NSAM is your age. A 75 year old with a life expectancy of 10 years may prefer the slow growing 9% now rather than the rapidly growing 2%. A 35 year old will likely have a different view the odds that he will benefit from the rapidly growing 2% more than the slow growing 9%.