Programmatic trading should be outlawed. It really makes it hard to get a good price on your stock purchases. You can use it to your advantage though. I bought some more at 3.52. Suspect we will close positive for the day. GLT
All of the shippers are being whacked after opening higher. Makes me think it was a programmatic sell. Don't think it is anything fundamental as the news was good. Baltic Dry index is higher this a.m.
While Mullally is a good CEO, I am not sure he is a great fit for MSFT. All this hype over whether he takes over at MSFT or not is essentially a trading opportunity. Today is probably a good time to buy. The selling over one unsubstantiated piece of news is absurd.
It they are mad then they should just sell. I know I am going to be richly rewarded down the road and I am collecting a nice divvy until then. At 21 I will buy more shares. At 31 I would sell a few.
There is huge growth in M1 and M2 but apparently there is very little velocity of money. velocity of money is the missing link to run away inflation. People are hording cash, paying debt and the Government is sucking up more with higher taxes. In a normal economy we would have rip roaring inflation right now but this is not normal. I like Gold long term but in the short run it is a hard trade. JMO.
After a few down days of the index, it was nice to see a big pop up.
Any idea when they will stop dumping the stock? Looking to buy below 10. Never saw a reason for this to jump from around 8 to over 12.
Guys, relax. The group is being sold off in mass. Nothing specific about BWP. Other MLP being thrashed too. APL and RGP are a couple I own that are being smashed. It is group rotation and tax related selling. Some of these funds think nothing of dumping 200,000 shares a day for a few days. Neuberger Berman Group owned 9 million shares last check. They can pressure a stock for days if they decided to sell or cut a position.
It bears careful watching but at least for the next 4 quarters you will get your divy. Probably for the next 6-7 quarters you will. The bearish case as I understand it, is that if the divy is falling while they are drilling new wells, what is it going to do when the wells are done and depletion really takes over. While early depletion is a real concern, in my estimation, the concern is overblown. I am not selling just because everyone else is panicking.
If you read my post carefully, I said "based on present prices". Everyone knows the depletion rate is higher than expected. That is why the stock is down. The question is what is the proper valuation at the expected level of depletion and so what kind of yield can we expect going forward. I made a reasonable guess that is all and I based my valuation on that. If you are in these things for Capap then you are in the wrong security. Some of us want income and that is why we buy these things. I don't know what the price of this will be in 2018 and don't care as long as it is pretty close to the payout I targeted. In the end these things go to zero.
My quick guesstimates are:
2014 2.30 in divy for the year
2015 2.20 divy for the year.
2016 1.6 divy for the year.
2017 1.5 divy for the year.
2018 1.4 divy for the year.
After that probably a 10% decline in divy each year. After year 5 you have gotten all your principle back. Even at year six we should be yielding over 10 % at present prices.
Shorts and panic sellers and dividend chasers drive these things all over the place in 3 months. As long as the divy checks come in every 3 months. IDC.