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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

bjaythebear 98 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 25, 2014 5:02 PM Member since: Dec 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Oil BROKE critical SUPPORT minutes ago ! Under 75 !

    by kored35 Nov 25, 2014 3:39 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 25, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    Support is actually closer to 72-73 at least for WTI but ok. if you say so.

  • Reply to


    by bperfett Nov 25, 2014 11:43 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 25, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    The Saudi's are being very coy about making cuts if they are. The tone they are giving suggests that they are not going to cut. I tend to agree that they will cave to making a token cut and 300k sounds like a good number. They will expect that other members to chip in so they will add cuts totalling that number. So worst case, I see 600k out of OPEC and maybe another 300k out of the Russians. When I do the math, I honestly don't see more that 900k in cuts and that is not enough. The Saudi's are tired of members cheating and American shale. They feel like if they do a million barrel a day cut, which is what they need to do to get back above $80 a barrel, that production would just be sucked up by American shale and OPEC cheaters. By allowing the price of oil to fall below 70 will get some marginal producers out of business and whip the other OPEC members in line and sit them up for better prices longer term.

  • Reply to

    What airlines hedge their fuel?

    by flyballboy Nov 24, 2014 4:44 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 24, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Most all do at some level. AAL is the exception. LUV is notorious for hedging.

  • Reply to


    by bearsrunfrombulls Nov 24, 2014 1:35 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 24, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    I think obviously the trend is more important to folks then the actual cut. I think the current feeling out there is that OPEC has lost control of the situation and that is why the price of oil has spun down. The actual affect on AAL of a roughly 10 dollar a barrel increase in oil is probably not that big a deal as you pointed out. BTW, I am not sure OPEC does 40% of the worlds production anymore. At least a million barrels a day probably 2 million need to be cut and within OPEC only the Saudis can make that sort of cut. Outside of OPEC the Russians could but won't. They simply can't afford it. The way I hear the Saudi's talk these days, they have no intention of cutting. Hard as it may be to believe, many of these OPEC countries are suffering budget chaos right now. They just had a 30 percent hit on their income and short of big budget cuts their only way out is to pump more oil. Oil bulls are going to be very disappointed.

  • Reply to

    AAL getting no Respect today

    by carruthersdevelopers Nov 24, 2014 10:32 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 24, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    It is really that AAL is most exposed to oil prices. It appears that no one wants to be short oil going into the OPEC meeting. The other thing is, there is rumored to be some behind the scenes negotiations going on between OPEC members and non-OPEC members like Russia. Depending on who you talk to, the market is 1-2 million barrels over supplied. The only countries producing enough oil to cut back that much are Russia and Saudi Arabia. Short of one of those two countries cutting back, I don't see prices firming. The Saudi's are getting tired of cutting back and having other countries cheat. The Russians are getting squeezed economically, so I don't see them cutting back. The Iranians seem desperate to get OPEC to cut production but no one else seems interested.

  • bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 21, 2014 10:02 PM Flag

    I think that the bottom line is many are still stuck in the mantra "the PC is dead". They also discount the Intel Server business which is very strong. They refuse to accept that the PC business is growing again. James Covello is famous for his hatred of Intel. He has had a PT of 17-18 for years. I have tuned them out years ago.

  • Reply to

    Hedge Funds trying to buy

    by melodias23 Nov 21, 2014 10:03 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 21, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    Second day in a row that they banged it down at the open. It smacks of stop running. Take out a stop at 44 get the sell orders to kick it down to 43.50 and scoop the stock up.

  • Reply to

    Airlines looking down on Oil UP

    by carruthersdevelopers Nov 21, 2014 10:04 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 21, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    The alogo boys are at it again. Oil up sell Airlines at the open.

  • Reply to

    INTC/ARMH crossover

    by butexcuseme Oct 10, 2014 5:58 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    Seems like only yesterday, really 2 years ago that pudits were saying sell INTC and buy ARMH. Some folks don't get it. INTC is the gorilla of the chip world. INTC is a monster. INTC will dominate the mobile space. It isn't even a question of if but when. ARMH will suffer like AMD suffered. A long agonizing death. It could take years but it is coming.

  • Reply to

    PE is too high

    by itakebackmyapology Nov 20, 2014 5:12 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    Why do you say that? Forward PE is 15 and that is before new guidance. A 15 PE seems very reasonable for a company with a dominant market position and growth that is accelerating.

  • bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    We will see. HD and Electrolux news sure helps.

  • Reply to

    Looking ahead

    by bayside1970 Nov 20, 2014 11:47 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    I put a $200 price target when I bought my shares back in February. Next year they will be earning over 14 dollars a share. I calculate fair value to be a 14-15 multiple to earnings. Do the math and you get around 200. The company should also be able to easily sustain a dividend of 1 dollar a share per quarter. The dividend will be raised to .90 or better per quarter next year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • William Blair analyst Jason Ader reiterated his Outperform rating on Mobileye N.V (NYSE: MBLY) following strong results with revenue topping the Street estimate by $4.4 million, while earnings were in line with expectations.
    "Profitability was robust, as expected, with net income margin and free cash flow margin of 28% and 30%, respectively," Ader noted. "Overall, the quarter was strong and we reaffirm our high regard for the company's business model and future prospects."
    Ader likes PEG ration as the best way to value the stock. The current PEG ratio on the firm's 2016 estimates is an attractive 1.3 times, versus the peer group PEG median of 1.7 times. Using a slightly different approach, they forecast non-GAAP EPS of $1.34 in 2018. Applying a 50-times P/E multiple on this level of earnings, shares would have about 50% upside over the next three years.
    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Mobileye N.V click here. For more ratings news on Mobileye N.V click here.
    Shares of Mobileye N.V closed at $46.75 yesterday.

  • Reply to

    todays play

    by rd2mil Nov 20, 2014 3:57 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    I am sure it did. I think it was the last dance of the spec players.

  • bjaythebear by bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    Really nice to see the dividend increase. I really wonder why INTC didn't increase at least a penny last year. I know they could afford it. So now it is 24 cents. I would have thought 25 would have been better. I bought MSFT at the same time as INTC. At the time, MSFT and INTC dividends were the same 22.5 cents. Now MSFT is at 31 cents.

  • Reply to

    Who cares

    by lovestocks_ohyea Nov 20, 2014 12:31 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    If you are in this for a quick buck, find another stock. The price action is going to get pretty bumpy.

  • Reply to

    Who is looking like the champ now?

    by exit161gsp Nov 20, 2014 11:27 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    Not really sure what your point is. If you are trading the stock the fine. You made a profit. Personally, I think there are better trades out there. Personally, I don't care what the stock does post earnings. It could go down 10 points today and I wouldn't care other then think about buying more. I am an investor not a trader.

  • bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    I have been buying and selling stocks for years. I see this all the time. Folks get jazzed about an IPO and pile into it driving the shares up. Then months later the interest dies out and the stock goes down. Typically, 3-6 months after an IPO is the best time to buy. Once we can get all the momentum folks out of the stock then it will trade on its fundamentals. Support is around 45 and there is a bit of resistance at 50. The stock may be around that range for awhile till the momentum crowd gets flushed out. People sold before the earnings and are selling after. These are "weak handed sellers" as they say. Despite the fact that the stock is down today, I actually liked the trading action. It went right down to the support level and held. There are willing buyers at 45. I plan on holding this for years despite what the price action is.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    They only met eps .. Not impressive

    by hitman4gk Nov 20, 2014 10:14 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    I don't think you understand what I said. They topped revenue estimates by 10%. They actually had 70% revenue growth YoY. Support for the stock is around 45 and you got pretty close to that today. That was your buy point. Personally, my position in this stock is pretty low. It makes up around 1% of my portfolio. To me it is a spec stock and that is how I treat it. I increased my position by 25% after the earnings release. I don't see it falling below 45 but if it did, I would look at buying more.

  • bjaythebear bjaythebear Nov 20, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    It certainly is a volatile stock. I said it before on this board, the stock is pretty expensive on a valuation basis. In in-line EPS doesn't cut it with some folks when you are dealing with such an expensive stock. That said, I think people are overly focused on EPS and certainly that is why it is down. Smart money is focused on the revenue growth which beat by 10%. The wrong will be corrected soon. I bought more shares.

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