Really don't understand what was holding this stock up. The revisions for 2015 keep getting worse and worse. Now that earnings are around the corner, traders seem to be bailing big. Sell through post earnings is going to be heavy. I have been saying for months on this board, wait tell after earnings to buy. Like you say forward PE of 21 is way high for a company with negative growth forecast. I agree, see this dipping between 70-80 soon.
I have been saying over the last few weeks, folks should be braced for a zero dividend. If they have withheld some cash then great, they are going to need it to pay their expenses. So we are nearly a month into the actual quarter and we got oil down below 50. Doubt we will average 79 this quarter.
There is no good news in the technical. The stock has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows since July. It has managed to hold above 100 for the time being
I think the supply overhang is something that has been baked into the stock price for awhile. I know I was reluctant to buy more until the lockup period was over and we got the supply problem over with. Now that the cats out of the bag and got the bad news out of the way, I think people are just relieved. It is the old sell on rumor buy on the news situation.
Bottom line is that insiders control the company based on their share count alone. Looks like to me 40 million shares are outstanding and the float is just over 100 million. That is a lot of stock to bring directly in the market. It would crush the stock price if the insiders just were allowed to dump their shares on the market when they wanted to. It is actually to your benefit that they are managing it. Get used to it, this is the way that IPO's are done. Usually, it is better to wait until after the lockup periods to buy IPO'd companies.
Earnings may be $10 a share this year but you have to realize that is due to $2.50 in tax credits that are going away so it isn't a true $10 and that jump was mainly due to anticipated drop in fuel costs. 50% growth rate is certainly not sustainable for this company. 8-10% might be but that is dependent on keeping their costs under control. Right now they have a big headwind in the form on a big increase in wages.
Hedging is like purchasing insurance. It is a loss until something happens and you need it. Saying "well they shouldn't have hedged because they lost money" is really rear view window stuff. I don't think anyone guessed a year ago that oil prices would be cut in half from what they were.
I have no position in CVX short or long. IMO, it is the right company but the wrong time to own it. I would buy it if the price were right but there is not enough upside in the stock to warrant taking the downside risk. The stock needs another 20% correction before I would get interested in it. Right now you have a stock that has had a little more then 20% correction with a 40% drop in earnings projections. Something has to give.
The new CEO is a under-promise over deliver sort of guy. The guidance really isn't off that much from previous estimates so I don't understand all the hand ringing. Plus, I believe that it was just $500 million rev drop. This is a drop in the bucket. I would wait for the conference call. They did beat on a very strong gross margin number and it looks like next quarter it returns to normal unless they are "low balling it" and come out high like this quarter.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Most of the posters are plain clueless.
Past cost have been all over the map so yes prediction is pretty hard but since VOC said just a few weeks ago that they would incur additional expenses due to Kurten Woodbine Unit then I guess that we are not going to see a lot of relief from the expense side.
Buy and hold is generally a better approach then trading. Warren Buffett didn't do bad doing this. In my long history buying and selling equities, I have been both an investor and a trader. I was a good trader, I did well, but with taxes and commissions, I really didn't do as good as buying the right stock and holding it. It was easily to buy AAL when oil was plunging and now if oil starts to stabilize, then things are going to get rocky. If you are uncomfortable with that then I say sell. Like bearofbleecker, I was very lucky to enter this stock cheap during the Ebola scare 3 month ago when traders were holding down the sell button on Airline stocks. I have used the recent selling to build a position in SAVE.
It is a very short term mentality of a trader. Traders are trying to anticipate a bottom for oil and buying oil stocks and selling Airlines ahead of that. That is the reason that AAL is down lately. They have tried this at every support level and they have been wrong. Supposing they are right this time and oil is at a bottom. We really don't know how long oil prices will stay suppressed. If oil spikes back up to $100 quickly then yeah it is a good trade. My experience with commodity type corrections is that they take a long time to work out. I am more comfortable betting on sub 65 dollar oil then I am at oil being 100 dollars. Even at 65 dollar oil, AAL is printing money. If traders want to bang the stock down 10 points over a 2 dollar rise in oil, I don't know what to say about that type of logic. Even with a $10 rise in oil, AAL will earn over $10 a share for 2015. I am fine buying into a 4x forward PE.
I think people trading airline stocks for oil stocks are making a big mistake. You know, earning are the great truth serum for earnings fact and fiction. Can't wait for earnings season to start and we find out which companies have earnings momentum and which don't. Oil stocks have not been marked down enough to consider them a buying on weakness opportunity and Airline stocks have not been marked up enough considering how high their earnings are going. The selling in the airlines while oil is still plunging is stupid.
I think last quarter they had an average selling price of $96 a barrel. So now we are nearly half of that. The other problem is that their expenses will not go down in half and in fact they are saying they will have higher expenses. The whole thing doesn't look good. Plunging income and rising expenses. So according to my quick math, At $96 a barrel oil, VOC made 18 million and had just over 9 million in expenses. If the price of oil gets cut in half which it essentially is at $50 a barrel then income goes down to 9 million and even if expenses are flat we have no money for distributions. Not sure what the average selling price for oil is for this quarter but it is tough for VOC to make money at this price point for oil.
The whole thing is rather bizarre. On a percentage basis CVX is down much less then AAL. Of course this is an oil related selloff but why are Airlines being hit so hard when they will benefit?
A dividend increase is coming. Personally, I hope they keep the increase small for now and focus on paying down debt.