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Intel Corporation Message Board

bjaythebear 158 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 5:40 PM Member since: Dec 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    aal vs. luv valuations

    by cavalier2015 Dec 19, 2014 8:04 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 19, 2014 5:40 PM Flag

    LUV has a higher organic growth rate and a much lower debt level then AAL. It also has one of the best track records in the industry. They are the gold standard of discount Airlines. Buffet says it is better to overpay for a great company then to underpay for a bad one. Yes it is pricey but some would say worth it. If your intention is to hold for a long period of time, you aren't going to go wrong with LUV.

  • Reply to

    2014: I am still sick of Android

    by thrishna.sakamuri Dec 17, 2014 11:58 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 18, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Bought an Android tablet, hated it. Quit using it 6 months later and gave it to my daughter. Couldn't do anything with it. Doesn't network very well. All I could do was surf the web with it and download a few junky apps. Awkward to try and get it to print. Wished I would have saved up my money and bought a Surface Pro from the get go. Tried all three, Surface Pro is the best, then Apple iPad and the worst is Android. Android is for people who are to tight to buy a proper OS.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Looks like that. What a surprise, oil down again. ;-)

  • Reply to

    forbes article

    by blackbently2002 Dec 17, 2014 11:40 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 18, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    I think at the point MBLY convinces NHTSA that it is an affordable way to save live, they hit the big time.

  • bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 18, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Yeh, I don't think you can have a sustained rally in prices till supply is cut. OPEC isn't doing it and shale production will not drop this month because projects are still being completed and coming on line that were already started before the drop. Eventually new projects will stop at this price. Read a report last night that 7.5 million BPD of new projects are going to be placed in limbo. That is a massive number. The market will balance at some point. Figuring out when and at what price is the key. I don't think anyone has a handle on that but I agree, it is months off.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Delta's Refinery

    by jan_m_k Dec 15, 2014 6:06 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    Refineries don't make money off the price of oil, they make it off the crack spread.

  • Reply to

    i need help trying to understand........

    by jeffsedgh Dec 17, 2014 5:30 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 6:59 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    SAVE and AAL

    by bearsrunfrombulls Dec 17, 2014 11:46 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    SAVE has been absolutely pummelled so it is entitled to a bounce. I ended up buying it this a.m. it received a pounding that it didn't deserve. Suspect it will march back up to 85. It has a good 15 points upside near term.

  • Reply to

    WOW on AAL

    by carruthersdevelopers Dec 17, 2014 2:34 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    Yes, over half of all the trades are done by somebody's black box. This isn't investing or even trading, at that point it is market manipulation. SEC talks about it but does nothing. People think the market is rigged and this is why. If something isn't done, then real liquidity will dry up. It is hard to get a fair price when stocks swing wildly interday. Unfortunately, airlines have been targeted by these folks so now we have to deal with it.

  • Reply to

    DAL stock price

    by chrisn22001 Dec 17, 2014 12:04 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    Hedgies are playing with oil and airline stocks. They were playing a bounce in oil. Going long oil stocks and short airlines. Oil is going no where fast. Once they figure that out, they will stop playing with both. Until then, hang on.

  • Reply to

    Stock is only $2 higher than when oil was $110 in June

    by iahphx Dec 17, 2014 12:33 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    It is all programmatic trading, It is hard to get a fair price on stocks when somebodies computer program is bouncing your stock all over the place. It is stuff like this that get the little guy to start thinking WallStreet is rigged.

  • Reply to

    Oil Down 4% From It's High Today.

    by dilo133 Dec 17, 2014 2:50 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    Way too much supply of oil, no big rally will be sustained in oil. People trading airline stocks for oil stocks are making a big mistake. Get ready, these one or two days spikes are going to keep coming Airline stocks are going to bounce all over the place for awhile.

  • bjaythebear by bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Needed a deep discounter to go along with my AAL and DAL so I picked up some SAVE this a.m. The stock has been unfairly shredded the last few days.

  • Reply to


    by j26231f Dec 17, 2014 1:15 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    All ready to go to the beach with my Cuban cigar, a big sombrero and a couple of Cuban girls in bikinis.

  • Reply to

    AAL down 10% from high

    by carruthersdevelopers Dec 17, 2014 11:10 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    This is really an oil vs Airline trade. The traders are betting on a bounce in oil so the trade seems to be sell airlines and by oil stocks. We probably will get a bounce in oil, it is way oversold on a technical basis. My advice is hang in there. The oil bounce might get viscous and the drop in AAL short term might go down but staying long the airlines is the correct trade. The oil bounce will be short lived.

  • Reply to

    technically, MBLY looks like a bottom here

    by najarian_trader Dec 16, 2014 10:03 AM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 17, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    It has been basing. I called the bottom on the 3rd. Right now it is sort of a double bottom forming where we revisited support around 40. Probably the last time you will be able to buy this around the 40 level.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Analyst's average estimate

    by grandforks65 Dec 16, 2014 4:43 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 16, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    They have taken some consideration but not a lot. Ok last report i read from a Credit Suisse report is this: "We raise our Q4E to $1.50 (from $1.29) and while our 2015
    untaxed EPS of $7.68 ($5.01 full-taxed) remains unchanged it has
    significant upside from lower fuel. We conservatively embed $2.77/gal in
    2015" . So they are using a 2.77/gal number for their calculations.

  • Reply to

    Analyst's average estimate

    by grandforks65 Dec 16, 2014 4:43 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 16, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    I agree. People don't realize how long commodities can stay down when they are correcting. People have been conditioned to expect oil to bounce back because, "it always has". It bounced back because OPEC controlled the supply and now it doesn't, that is the difference this time. Look at gold as an example because it was speculated in much like oil was, it is a rare metal but nearly 2 years later it isn't much higher then it was. I am guessing oil will be in the 65-75 range for some time. You will see these surges in oil as traders keep trying to time the bottom and in the process the Airlines will take a hit but all these rallies in oil will be short lived and eventually traders will grow tired of playing with oil.

  • Reply to

    Don't freak out

    by jtgray24 Dec 16, 2014 4:04 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 16, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    Believe me, if it goes to 44, I am backup up the truck. I bought around 31 in October but geez, I was thinking $75 dollar oil back then. You price in $55 oil and AAL gets a whole lot cheaper on a PE basis. You are getting a sub 5 multiple to earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Don't freak out

    by jtgray24 Dec 16, 2014 4:04 PM
    bjaythebear bjaythebear Dec 16, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    People are really over thinking this. Low oil is good for almost everybody except oil companies and oil exporting countries. All these nervous nellies are selling things are are going to benefit greatly from falling oil like the airlines. Think of it as a great wealth transfer from the producers of oil to the consumers of oil. Venezuela going bankrupt has little to do with AAL. Chevron getting a few less dollars in its greedy pocket will not hurt consumers it will benefit them.

36.37-0.65(-1.76%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

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