The new CEO is a under-promise over deliver sort of guy. The guidance really isn't off that much from previous estimates so I don't understand all the hand ringing. Plus, I believe that it was just $500 million rev drop. This is a drop in the bucket. I would wait for the conference call. They did beat on a very strong gross margin number and it looks like next quarter it returns to normal unless they are "low balling it" and come out high like this quarter.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Most of the posters are plain clueless.
Past cost have been all over the map so yes prediction is pretty hard but since VOC said just a few weeks ago that they would incur additional expenses due to Kurten Woodbine Unit then I guess that we are not going to see a lot of relief from the expense side.
Buy and hold is generally a better approach then trading. Warren Buffett didn't do bad doing this. In my long history buying and selling equities, I have been both an investor and a trader. I was a good trader, I did well, but with taxes and commissions, I really didn't do as good as buying the right stock and holding it. It was easily to buy AAL when oil was plunging and now if oil starts to stabilize, then things are going to get rocky. If you are uncomfortable with that then I say sell. Like bearofbleecker, I was very lucky to enter this stock cheap during the Ebola scare 3 month ago when traders were holding down the sell button on Airline stocks. I have used the recent selling to build a position in SAVE.
It is a very short term mentality of a trader. Traders are trying to anticipate a bottom for oil and buying oil stocks and selling Airlines ahead of that. That is the reason that AAL is down lately. They have tried this at every support level and they have been wrong. Supposing they are right this time and oil is at a bottom. We really don't know how long oil prices will stay suppressed. If oil spikes back up to $100 quickly then yeah it is a good trade. My experience with commodity type corrections is that they take a long time to work out. I am more comfortable betting on sub 65 dollar oil then I am at oil being 100 dollars. Even at 65 dollar oil, AAL is printing money. If traders want to bang the stock down 10 points over a 2 dollar rise in oil, I don't know what to say about that type of logic. Even with a $10 rise in oil, AAL will earn over $10 a share for 2015. I am fine buying into a 4x forward PE.
I think people trading airline stocks for oil stocks are making a big mistake. You know, earning are the great truth serum for earnings fact and fiction. Can't wait for earnings season to start and we find out which companies have earnings momentum and which don't. Oil stocks have not been marked down enough to consider them a buying on weakness opportunity and Airline stocks have not been marked up enough considering how high their earnings are going. The selling in the airlines while oil is still plunging is stupid.
I think last quarter they had an average selling price of $96 a barrel. So now we are nearly half of that. The other problem is that their expenses will not go down in half and in fact they are saying they will have higher expenses. The whole thing doesn't look good. Plunging income and rising expenses. So according to my quick math, At $96 a barrel oil, VOC made 18 million and had just over 9 million in expenses. If the price of oil gets cut in half which it essentially is at $50 a barrel then income goes down to 9 million and even if expenses are flat we have no money for distributions. Not sure what the average selling price for oil is for this quarter but it is tough for VOC to make money at this price point for oil.
The whole thing is rather bizarre. On a percentage basis CVX is down much less then AAL. Of course this is an oil related selloff but why are Airlines being hit so hard when they will benefit?
A dividend increase is coming. Personally, I hope they keep the increase small for now and focus on paying down debt.
I think realistically it is a non event. The spread will narrow anyway because US is a net importer of oil still and so Refiners will buy WTI if it is cheaper or Bent if that is cheaper. Environmentalist wackos have made it difficult to transport oil around the US so that is a bigger reason for the spread. If pipes are not built because their construction is blocked then they transport by rail which is a bit more difficult and expensive and probably less environmentally friendly then pipes to boot. Often it is easier for coastal refiners to buy Brent pay the premium and have it shipped in then hassle with WTI.
Plain and simple it is too early. A couple of weeks ago, I posted a $7 a share estimate for CVX (my estimate) while wall street was still at $10 and lots of people scoffed. Now guess what? Wall street is at 7.24 so they are just now catching up. Most of you have done very little in homework on this and urge jumping in. My advice? Wait till after the next earnings release. The 113 it is at will not hold. I personally would like this falling to 90 before I took a stab at buying it. I am leaving my $7 price estimate for now although it may turn out high but if oil keeps falling then I will drop that estimate. I kind of think oil will settle at 60-65 next year. Right now the dividend is safe but the coverage is getting thin so I don't think you will see a dividend increase over the next couple of years. Not sure why people are willing to jump into that. There are plenty of other companies that are showing earnings and dividend growth that have lower forward PE's .