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Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. Message Board

bjfcpainc 69 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 9:12 AM Member since: Jan 14, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Longs are fried you just got...

    by psusucker Apr 16, 2014 6:54 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Apr 17, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    PSU, who cares about Cramer? I just bought in after the 18% drop recently because there is real long term value in having 3-4% of my portfolio invested in this most valuable alternative asset. BX is one of the few ways to invest in a top quality alternative asset without having to do it privately.

    You are also missing the fact that most financial related assets have the same story in regard to their all time highs.... well Wells Fargo Bank recently eclipsed its all time high and I expect BX to get there within the next year or so. Good luck with that short but I have my full position so I won't be there to bail your sorry rear end out once you shorts (again) get it wrong.

  • Reply to

    RUSSIA may ROCKET this stock

    by rchites Apr 10, 2014 11:50 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Apr 10, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    Dude, all the NGL stocks affected by Russia have already shot up. Face it, NAT is a POS.

  • Reply to

    New Business Direction for Magellan

    by ake05bono Apr 1, 2014 9:09 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Apr 9, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    Oh, the white house understands but are so in the pocket of the greens they cannot make any move before the midterm elections.

    MMP got five analyst firm price target increases today. Their presentation was incredible.

    Actually the next big thing may be interrelationships between E&Ps and pipeline/G&P MLPs like the Devon/Crosstex deal (now known as Enlink). This deal is an industry game changer because unlike the Anadarko/Western deal Anadarko sells its midstream at top dollar. Devon is going to let the MLP develop as much of its future midstream at much lower ebitda multiples which in time accrue to the shareholders' benefit.

    For those interested the highest price target for MMP is $80 by Credit Suisse.

  • Reply to

    Surge in SUEZMAX Rates

    by nolaloha Apr 8, 2014 4:28 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Apr 8, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    Just how delusional are all of you. If SuezMax rates were going favorable there is no way this capital raise would have slammed the stock 10%. The fact of the matter is these rates will AGAIN be temporary but in keeping with NAT's tradition they will use proceeds to overpay for more ships in an unchanged secular downturn and all of you sitting here thinking the bottom has been put in.

    Get a clue: NAT has cratered value from the mid $30s precisely because they keep trying to catch the falling knife of costs to purchase ships as the secular cycle in lower shipping rates remains unabated.

  • Reply to

    AAL Down & Upgraded

    by carruthersdevelopers Apr 7, 2014 10:50 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Apr 7, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    Regardless, you know you are in an ugly market when Goldman upgrades and your stock is down. I may get a chance to add to my position so I am always willing to let the insanity of the market create another opportunity to buy a little bit more.

  • Reply to

    Congrats All.....

    by blankwillie Apr 1, 2014 11:27 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Apr 3, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    Congrats for what? I dumped my ACAS and moved on and kept a spreadsheet record of what I did with the money and ACAS would have to be at $34.41 to equate with performance since 11/08 in my personal account. In my retirement account ACAS would have to be $62.12 (thank you AAPL). ACAS-centric investors blinded themselves and stayed in an underperforming stock and sector.

    Congrats for nothing. Lesson is to walk away from a sector that blew up and a company that blew itself to pieces getting into structured products that tanked. There isn't much more NAV growth and when you look at NOI investors may be unwilling to accept a lower yield from ACAS than they can get from other BDCs that did not completely blow themselves up.

    You all could have outperformed in any number of sectors.... your blind pride kept you holding an underperformer of great magnitude.

  • Reply to

    u need to listen

    by rpfla Apr 1, 2014 4:42 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Apr 2, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    The fact that MMP can grow its distribution by the highest rates in the sector (estimated growth 20% in 2014 and 15% in 2015)... higher interest rates hurt but maybe hurt less as investors see a distribution growth rate that can keep up with or exceed increases in interest rates. That makes it possible for MMP to take less of a hit than other MLPs.

  • Reply to

    New 2014 guidance

    by rekerc01 Mar 31, 2014 8:02 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Apr 1, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    I wonder if this is enough for Credit Suisse to go back to outperform. Distribution growth has been excellent and if you own TRGP too the total return has been phenomenal. MMP is also building a new splitter in the same region. NGLS management has picks and chooses its projects very carefully and I expect the design like so many others leaves room for growth from the initial base project.

  • LINE's hedging was near genius and led to fat distributions and consistent distribution increases thru to early 2013. Then LINE needs Berry in order to try to extend their record of increasing distributions... the deal blows up and the train comes off the tracks. LINE will be unable to duplicate hedges of 2008 and Berry cost too much. Smart money gone.

  • Reply to

    Deutsche's response to the letter

    by eladnm Mar 21, 2014 12:28 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 21, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    Democrats continue their class warfare knowing Hep-C is more of a disease of the lower classes and their bad choices regarding IV drug usage and unprotected sex. Congressman, the good news is Bill Clinton can afford to get Hep-C drugs without government assistance.

  • bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 17, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Do any of you understand how much new wealth was created when CHK was forced to spin its midstream assets off? They had to dump their general partner interest to Williams and then ACMP once fully independent of the nightmare that is CHK has prospered.

    How do I know. I was waiting for the day CHK was forced to sell its stake in ACMP to buy in. It is up 80% since CHK got out.

    Investors are not making money in CHK. The money is in the spin once it is ultimately freed from the nightmare that is CHK.

  • Reply to

    6 million short, Nat Gas/Energy Sector

    by jim.beamdrunk Mar 13, 2014 11:39 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 13, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    I doubt that very much. I sold between $36 and $38 which was a quadruple from the bottom. Management appears to have overpaid for its Chevron JV pipeline and Cardinal assets. Stock has cratered and now their best choice financing is a perpetual preferred at 8.25% when Crosstex just refinanced $1.2B in debt at 200+ basis points lower than APL.

    You have to watch the financing ball for clues and if this was APL's best financing choice..... I would be most concerned about next quarter's report. I am expecting nat gas volumes processed to crater.

  • bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 12, 2014 11:27 AM Flag


    Unfortunately, you are right on the mark and makes my decision to sell last year because I thought they paid too much for Cardinal a possibility.

    This has to be about locations of their assets and volumes because it is not as if APL's balance sheet strength is much different from the peer group now.

    Suffice it to say this is very disturbing. I was literally getting ready to pull the trigger on ATLS thinking they may be undervalued but this news steers me clear so I will add to ENLC which just came into existence (formerly XTXI). Or I might add some ETE... I like the GPs with multiple MLPs but ATLS just fell off my list and this may explain why it began cratering well before APL

  • bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 12, 2014 8:23 AM Flag

    It was always 1/1. Those who owned XTXI got $2.063; not $2.05. Its all subject to last minute calculations to arrive at the split... cannot be perfect. Hasn't effected anything inasmuch as we are at 52 week high for the LP.

  • Reply to

    when do we get the 2buck divy?

    by bandhreands Mar 11, 2014 11:52 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 11, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    That is not a true statement. I bought shares in the downdraft last FRI and I got cash on the entire transaction. It was a case where FRI was the record date immediately after Devon approved the merger. This type of transaction is much better for shareholders because it keeps those filthy risk arbitragers out of the game because there is no game for them. Thank you management for doing it the right way.

  • I never understood why they bought the small minority interest in the western pipeline (CVX their majority owner?). Now they are looking to sell. They may have trouble selling to anyone but Chevron. Chevron probably in no mood to buy inasmuch as they paid way too much for APL's JV interest in Marcellus.

  • Reply to

    Congratulations Crosstex on the Devon news!

    by bignerdalert Mar 11, 2014 8:26 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 11, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    On behalf of those of us who got in earlier because we understood what the Devon deal was going to be about thank you for supporting the stock at these much higher levels.

  • bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 11, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    You got this wrong. Devon is still Devon, an upstream. Devon owns a significant percentage of ENLC, a GP which in turn owns a significant portion of an MLP, ENLK to which Devon has spun significant midstream assets.

  • Reply to

    Senate bill was a complete surprise...

    by acquirebait11 Mar 11, 2014 4:57 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Mar 11, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    You can bet some senators and their staffs were short.

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