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Pengrowth Energy Corporation Message Board

bjfcpainc 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 27, 2015 9:28 AM Member since: Jan 14, 2008
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  • Gee, I dumped FCX the day they did the Plains deal.... how can anyone ever believe copper/gold fits with oil and gas? I see FCX in single digits and I see the only third party financing coming in the form of a toxic preferred. I sold my shares but I should have gone the other way and gone short. The deal was crazy when oil and gas prices were much higher anyway. Think about it.... gold and copper and oil and gas...... why?

  • bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Jan 25, 2015 1:11 AM Flag

    Scott Black has gravitas and is well recognized as a value investor. I saw the article FRI night but you can bet all this stuff gets distilled by those who know how to game the system to their advantage.

  • Scott Black, a value investor picked ARCC as one of his picks in Barron's RoundTable to be out SAT.

  • This is one sick puppy that has bad assets and financing costs that are too high to justify their capex

  • bjfcpainc by bjfcpainc Jan 2, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    BX is the real winner as they will most likely generate huge returns from the drilling program LINE agreed to as part of today's action. LINE sold their future soul to BX. So buy BX and the other money managers that will profit from this sector's destruction.

  • This is the gang that has NEVER shot straight and during the very best of times in oil and natural gas this stock was falling like a stone. Yah think PWE trading lower and lower during the best of times portends a good future holding PWE?

  • bjfcpainc by bjfcpainc Dec 19, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    Looks like ACAS wants the higher risks of CLOs again thinking they have learned their lessons. CLOs were used to juice dividends in the pre 2008 financial collapse era. ACAS convinced investors they could sustain much higher dividends in order to keep the stock price up so they could use their then overpriced currency to keep growing their asset base.

    And then the roof caved in. Go back and look at how much NAV was lost in CLO POS paper. Best of breed BDCs are finding better ways to reward their investors than going back in the past to generate investor returns. ACAS is back to its old financial engineering methods thinking they have learned the lessons.

    I don't think so.

  • These E&P MLPs need to be opportunistic and buy back shares at these prices even if it means shutting in their wells and cutting distributions to shareholders. These yields are yields private investors in private drilling partnerships get; not public partnerships.

  • Reply to

    How Can an Oil Company With -.11 EPS

    by de4a3z Dec 9, 2014 7:02 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Dec 12, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    If these E&P MLPs have to start hedging future production at these levels there will have to be distribution cuts and that is the fear and uncertainty driving E&P MLPs down right now.

    If we reverse to the high $60s low $70s a lot less pressure will be in place but right here, right now, if there is no sense of decent worldwide economic growth the future hedging programs are going to be very ugly and not in line with the price of oil an E&P MLP must have in order to maintain present dividend levels.

  • Reply to

    Sell off way overblown . . .

    by state_of_affairs Dec 10, 2014 10:49 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Dec 10, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Dividend does not look stable to me when you take into account the large fee income the last two quarters versus fee income going forward. I own it, have been hit hard, but will hang in and I am assuming a dividend cut to $1.20 which looks more closer to stabilization without too much reliance on fee income.

  • European blind selling to get cash appears to be the push. We shall see if our markets recover more after Europe close at 8:30 AM PST

  • Reply to

    Massive Capitulation!

    by dunes1000 Nov 28, 2014 1:18 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Nov 28, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    PWE's balance sheet cannot sustain any period of weak oil prices. Novice investors look at today's drop as overdone? Best to look at the last time oil suffered a significant drop at a time there were so many E&Ps chasing after property and bidding for them out of control.

    Now, Aubrey McClendon's new venture may be at risk.

    The winners will be the vulture investors that pick over the carcasses of small POS E&Ps like PWE.

  • bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Nov 28, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    Only fools will get sucked into this negative feedback loop. The real winners are ALWAYS the consolidators like Blackstone and KKR and other investors that will pick over the graves of the weakest players. While I joke about PWE because I sold way back when the first announcements about the change to Canadian tax laws spelled the beginning of the end of these marginal players like PWE.

    It saddens me that so many got sucked into a PWE who has one of THE worst 5 and 10 year charts in the industry and today's beat down being so much more than other E&Ps is clearly a sign that PWE is most likely done and will be forced into a consolidation or BK IF the trend in oil holds for as long as 18 months which is looking more likely now.

  • And here all of you fools have kept believing in POS stocks like PWE. If you want to own E&P then own best of breed, not worst in show like PWE. Marginal players like PWE will have to be acquired but you will more likely than not see take-under pricing because debt is fixed and forever and the underlying trend in oil prices going lower is in the process of killing off marginal players like PWE that is always too many days late and too many dollars short.

  • bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Nov 25, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Cut capital to maintain dividend? That is the ticket to disaster or are you all so delusional that you cannot see from any five year chart these clowns have produced nothing in the way of return because high yield has been trumped by lost capital.

    Your mommie's can run your money better than you clowns can.

  • bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Nov 18, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    I think in part is part of a plan toward long term simplification of the ETE structure. After the KMI announcement the thought was ETE would be next because reducing their borrowing rates would be so compelling that they would have to match KMI move for move going forward.

  • Reply to

    Another Inside Buy

    by ador Nov 12, 2014 7:59 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Nov 12, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    Insiders have been buying down on PWE from the high teens. Just because they are insiders doesn't mean (in this case) they have a single clue.

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations - Empty Chair

    by quickkeeping1 Nov 11, 2014 4:23 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Nov 11, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    What question can you possibly have. This POS is out of business.

  • Reply to

    Hitchhikers guide to COCO

    by amysteryman2003 Nov 9, 2014 5:25 AM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Nov 10, 2014 7:27 AM Flag

    What is the matter with you people? NO ONE can buy COCO assets without first putting the assets into BK.

    Banks who bailed out businesses during the crisis only to find out later the government was wiling to go after the ultimate buyer of the bank for fines, penalties, etc. learned a hard lesson and COCO has so many levels of potential litigation BK will be needed to get an absolute handle on exposure to various litigations pending and unknown....

    You are all on a fool's errand if you think shareholders will see anything from a sale and Wall Street is correctly pricing COCO reflecting those facts.

  • Reply to

    Welcome

    by rpfla Nov 3, 2014 1:50 PM
    bjfcpainc bjfcpainc Nov 8, 2014 1:29 AM Flag

    MLPs require investors to be more sophisticated but as of late many newbies are lost and have been to quick on the sell trigger when the markets went down. For me, the general partners cratering in this last down market phase made for incredible opportunities to add to my positions. I have had MMP since the day they announced buying their GP and two analyst firms downgraded that day saying it was not a good move to buy their GP for 11x ebitda. We would learn later that 11x ebitda was a steal and is part in parcel why MMP is able to outperform so many other MLPs.

    This is one to hold to the end of life. MMP's asset footprint. Awesome. BPL is the only other major petroleum based MLP and its asset base in the northeast is slow to no growing while MMP's gulf assets are in the highest growth area and set to play big in the exporting of oil which may be a step closer as a result of TUE's election.

PGH
2.68+0.160(+6.35%)Jan 30 4:08 PMEST

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