I'm concerned with the "future" of ACAS, not with the company they were a half a decade ago.
The only thing relevant "now" about the ACAS from "then" is the half a billion dollars worth of loss carryovers from that era.
Is there anything else you can offer as to why you feel ACAS is about to launch it's PPS into the stratosphere as you suggest?
... as compiled by the aggregate 2014 estimate by first call.
That means that today's drop reduces LVS's PEG ratio to less than 1.0, since the first-call 2014 estimate is more than a 20% rise above the aggregate's 2013 estimate.
As I've said, while I think the 84 cent Q4, 2013 estimate is about what I would expect, I think the $3.62 estimate for 2014 is conservative, and I think that 2014 will come in closer to $3.80...
... meaning that I view LVS's forward PEG ratio as even lower than analysts do.
Given that LVS is now significantly a "momentum" stock, it's important to find "value" in the stock in order to justify continuing to own it as I do.
The sub-1.0 PEG ratio provides that value, but otherwise, LVS is much more fully-valued than it was years ago.
Many factors, from under-utilized capacity at SCL, to the macau supply crunch, to parisian to the bridge... indicate that this company should be able to grow more than 20% for years to come, but a surge to more than 23 to 25 times next year's anticipated earnings will have me selling some LVS, so we'll see over the next few months if sufficient "euphoria" sets in to justify some selling.
I can appreciate that you think ACAS will soar to $30 or $45 a share over the next 2 to 3 years...
... but you forgot to tell my WHY it will do that.
I've listed plenty of operational and financial metrics that support the "why" behind my frustration with ACAS, but you didn't provide any reason at all as to why you feel ACAS will blast off for the stratosphere.
If you can't provide me a map of fundamental metrics that will guide ACAS to such heights, then perhaps it's powered by "emotion".
Stopped by again. I see that a barrage of Tony-osama-obama "garbage" posts have blown this post off of page 1.
There's no point in posting any LVS information here, because with him pounding pure sewage into this message board 24x7, it's completely useless now.
Hopefully some day yahoo will clean these boards up, but I doubt it, considering how this guy is running amok out here... apparently with dozens of impersonations of legitimate posters now.
Like my dog... anything for attention.
If a BDC like ACAS is accelerating it's NOI, then it's not as important if it's NAV isn't growing.
If it is growing it's NAV, then a lower NOI is acceptable.
When NOI (Net Operating Income) has dropped to low levels... AND it's NAV (Net Asset Value) has flat-lined, then that is a problem, and it indicates that execution is challenged on multiple fronts.
With ACAS, it's NAV rose by 26 cents, but 29 cents of that was from stock buy-backs, and absent the buybacks, NAV actually fell 3 cents. That's a big change from 2 years ago, and the economy is more healthy now, than it was THEN. The stock market is setting record highs, so why is ACAS's portfolio flat-lining in value?
I bought ACAS based on 2 things: 1) Good value, and.. 2) Good potential.
At some point, however, "good potential" has to pan out, or you end up with a stock that goes nowhere. That wouldn't be so bad if ACAS paid a dividend, but it doesn't, so there's no consolation to a crummy stock price.
I like that ACAS is buying back stock cheaply, but if they can't find new portfolio investments to spend that money on instead, then is it a good thing that they can't do what they're in business to do (buy, improve, then sell companies), then is it really such a good thing that they end up "punting" with that money with buybacks instead of buying and turning around companies? They've been selling 3 times as many companies as they've been buying for 2 or 3 quarters now.
And finally, the "non-accruals" have stopped going down and have started to rise again this year. I could see it when that happened in 2010... that was a recession year... but in 2013 when the economy is much better and the stock market is hitting records???
Sorry, but I'm long this stock, and I'm frustrated. Can somebody on this board give me something to be optimistic about, because I'm running out of patience with this company.
Just an observation that it appears that today's swoon looks unrelated to anything directly attributable to LVS.
IGT (slot maker) reported crummy results and demoted their CEO, so some may be doing a read-thru that lower slot sales relates to less need to expand casinos that are perceived to not be growing.
The passage of New York gaming initiative may also be heightening fears of gaming proliferation, and LVS's Bethworks draws a lot of patronage from NYC and vicinity... in fact, I think Bethworks is the closest full casino to NYC, unless something's been built closer lately.
There is also the usual profit taking after a big run-up...
... including our good friend, mbablitz, who may be looking for a re-entry point in the mid-60s ;-)
When I pull money from my IRA, it raises my "taxable income", even though I'm living on my savings and my actual "earned income" is very low.
Because of that, I can't get an obamacare subsidy, and my health insurance premium has TRIPPLED!
So, I have to pull more money out of my IRA so that I can AFFORD my expensive Obamacare policy...
... which raises my taxable income even MORE, so that I'll NEVER qualify for an Obamacare subsidy.
AUGGHHH!! I HATE Obamacare... there is NOTHING fair about it. NOTHING!
Obamacare subsidizes people with lower incomes, and HAMMERS middle-class americans who make more money than Mr. Obama approves of.
Thing is, when you pull money from your IRA to live on, you don't necessarily have a high income... but an IRA disbursement is FULLY TAXABLE, just like you went out and made it, which you didn't.
I can only afford Obamacare TRIPPLING my health insurance cost by pulling money from my IRA....
..... but pulling money from my IRA raises my taxable income and eliminates any chance I have for an Obamacare Subsidy.
It's a VICIOUS CYCLE!
Like everybody else, I HATE Obamacare. I was paying FAR LESS for my health insurance before the "Affordable (sic) Care Act" came along and destroyed my finances.
Appreciate your commentary, quad, and your points are well taken.
It is a good strategy to buy back stock, given their unique ability, and reasons, that differentiate them from other BDCs.
The problem is, good execution is indicated by 2 things: Strong NOI, or a rising NAV, or both.
Right now, ACAS has neither one.
That would be understandable if the economy were like it was in 2009 or 2010, but the macroeconomic environment is GOOD.... they should be executing, and they are not.
I like ACAS for it's good value, and it's "potential", but like many of us, I'm frustrated by the lack of progress toward that potential, and there's nothing that says they can't end up trading at a 40% discount to NAV if that lack of progress is viewed on wall street to be continuing indefinately.
I think the stock would have dropped more on the disappointing Q3 results, if not for internal buying designed to make investor reaction to the report look artificially positive.
I would pick up ACAS stock in the $12s, but not for more, given their lack of execution.
If I were adelson, I would propose to the SAR that LVS be allowed to build a "non-gaming" resort on sites 7 and 8 that adheres to the SAR's hopes and dreams for cotai...
... in return for getting a couple hundred more gaming tables allocated to Venetian and cotai central.
Then, they could build another skybridge... from 7 and 8 over to Venetian.
Stanley's "Oceanus" comes to mind... now THERE is a "cruddy box".
The only "word for the wise" I can offer is: History's most successful investors of all time (eg: Templeton, Buffett, Rothschild, Lynch, etc.) owed much of their fortunes to something that your average fund or institutional manager doesn't have the luxury to exercise while they toil under the day-to-day scruitiny of their clients and sponsors.....
Re-activation of stacked, mid-water floaters would be like a "lite" version of the launch of a newbuild. Further, the company would want a minimum, 1 year contract in order to staff and un-stack such a unit... and I'm not sure the drop in mid-water utilization shown on IHS would accomodate that, even though midwater dayrates are surging so much.
I would add that it would help if NAV were moving higher at a clip that was more like it was appreciating in 2012, but it is not. In fact, if not for the Share Repurchases, NAV would have DECLINED by 3 cents.
The more I study the Q3 results, the more unhappy I am.
The only "soothing" part of it is that the largest number going ONTO non-accrual status occurred in 2010, when the economy was still very weak, and one would expect such a post-recession, residual effect.
What is very disturbing, is that the number going onto non-accrual more than doubled from 4 last year to 9 this year, and the number going OFF non-accrual decreased from 13 last year to 8 this year.
The economy is into it's 4th year of recovery, and the stock market is booming. It is very disturbing that this aspect of ACAS is moving in such a wrong direction, given the macro-economic environment should accomodate just the opposite result.