George, I've missed plenty of boats on the buy-side over the decades that I've been investing, and I'm here to tell you that I'm not a "coulda-shoulda" kind of guy.
Warren Buffett issued a table-pounding "sell" in 1998, and was dead wrong for almost 2 years. Everybody was laughing a poor Warren in the year 2000...
... but in 2002, nobody was laughing... he wasn't wrong, he was just "early".
I could be wrong about ACAS at $14.50 if it goes to $18 by the Lunar New Year...
... but I'm NOT going to buy a stock for $14.50 if I've got a $13.50 price tag on it after researching the living cr@p out of it.
Thanks, and GLTY! S.
You could very well be right, blair.
As a contrarian investor, I don't "chase price". If I don't get the price I want, then I move on to a candidate where I do get the price I want.
If I'm wrong and ACAS soars over $16 or $17, then I'll most likely sell all the shares I accumulated for 6 bucks a share.
The most important thing I learned from people like Rothschild, Templeton and Buffett was "patience"...
... and the fact that all of history's most famous investors were "contrariains".
Thanks, and yes, it could be long wait and I've got the time for it.
Rather than looking at lines through higher lows and moving averages, I prefer to look at Net Operating Income and the trajectory of NAV and NAV net of re-purchased stock.
I'm only interested in the stock price when it takes the form of one of dozens of ratios that contrast price with organizational fundamentals.
Thanks for your input just the same. GLTY. S.
If the taper is delayed and gradual, and there is nothing else to account for an ACAS slide below $14, then I would look to accumulate ACAS between $13.50 and $14.
If, on the other hand, there is something more significant that is driving ACAS, and perhaps the overall market, lower, then I would hold off to see how closely it gets to $13 or possibly lower.
I would not be too greedy with ACAS below $13.50, as you can be sure that the company itself would be jumping in and buying up stock at those levels should there be no obvious catalyst other than typical beta-driven, price action.
The announcement of a taper that begins sooner and cuts the fed's purchases more than $10 to $15 billion a month (both QE3(mortgages) and operation twist (treasuries) combined), could well get us $13 with an overall market over-reaction alone, so keep your nimble, contrarian tennis shoes laced up firmly.
Appreciate your question, jeffy.
ACAS put up it's worst operating numbers in quite a while in Q3. In fact, they stated on the conference call that they were going to aggessively address that via carrying the paper on higher-interst loans (presumably mezzanine) to operating companies to goose operating cash flow.
ACAS also saw their NAV appreciation completely stall out relative to the big gains that NAV saw in 2011 and 2012. NAV advanced in Q3, but absent the share buybacks, it actually DECLINED by 3 cents a share. Sure, some of it was billed as a "one-off" due to the write-down in the value of ACAM, but QE tapering hasn't even begun yet so I wouldn't necessarily support the notion that such writedowns are all that "one-off".
I support the buyback vs dividend policy. It was an excellent move to use the loss-carryovers to justify re-organizing from a RIC to a C-corp and start aggressively buying back stock as such large discounts to NAV. That is the REASON why I own a position in ACAS... because of the discount, the buybacks, and the company's un-realized potential.
But given the challenges with ACAM, the operating weakness, and the lack of NAV growth out side of what the buybacks are fueling, I see the company's "potential" as far enough down the road to wait for a cheaper stock price before adding to my position, and any significant surge in the stock to less than a 20% discount to NAV would have me ringing the register on the position that I already own.
This is a challenged BDC, and needs to be dealt with via a "contrarian" philosophy. This company isn't blackstone, but it could be better than it is by this time next year, and profitable for those who exercise contrarain discipline with it.
Hope that helps, jeffy,
The "healthy pullback" continues, as ACAS moved downward today in a big up day for the market overall.
ACAS currently sells for a discount of 25% from it's NAV. This company is a buy at 30% discount from NAV, In my humble opinion.
Realistically, that happens as the stock price approaches $14 or below, as the company also discounts the value of it's European Subsidiary internally prior to determining parent company NAV.
Otherwise, given the company's sluggish operating performance, and it's declining NAV (absent it's stock buybacks), I would not buy ACAS at current levels ahead of it's Q4 earnings announcement, as there is too much risk of continued under-performance.
By definition, contrarian investing requires good value... and good investor discipline to wait for the price you require to get that value. Don't chase a turnaround candidate this far ahead of any turnaround.
Market share for a mid-month channel check "expectedly" rose in December for SCL, to just under the 23% market share that the company has regularly been putting up in non-holiday months.
It would appear that investors are pleasantly surprised, since no analysts are trumpeting the new "hotel room availability" phenomenon that is creating this recurring, holiday-period effect.
So, between now and the Lunar New Year, we can expect a ~23% share, with LNY dropping it back down to something shy of 21% this winter.
For a more detailed explanation of this phenomenon, LVS's proboard page has a post by me within the market-share thread created by MrTaxx.
Good Tindings to All, XT.
I havn't posted here in some time. I see that at this particular moment that the Entire First Page of this board is Pure Tony Garbage.
I don't iggy a lot of Tony's continuous manufacturing of alias so much anymore because I almost never come to this completely Ruined board anymore.
I see that he mentions me in virtually every piece of sewage that he posts, and that is good, because a post always looks better when a certified lunatic is criticizing it and keeping it prominent.
I encourage everyone who would prefer an alternative to this insane asylum message board to join us over on the LVS board at proboards. As most of you know, Tony is prohibited from posting on that board so it has become the exceptional LVS board that this board was several years ago before Tony showed up and subsequently went insane.
See you all next month, and GLTAXT.
The company likely suspended it's stock buyback campaign for the quarter after the stock moved over $15.
ACAS is "over-bought" over $15, and the company surely recognizes that with it's stock buyback program.
Why pay $15 when it will likely correct back down below $14 with a market pullback. This stock has a sufficiently high "beta" that indicates such a scenario to be likely if the S&P 500 index corrects as it is currently doing.