As an aside, once you account for all of SJM's 3rd-party arrangements, Sands China stands out as the runaway leader in wholly-owned, GGR revenue share.
While SJM holds the licenses for 20 of the 35 casinos in Macau, SJM only receives the full economic benefit of such licensing from 3 of it's casinos: Lisboa, Grand Lisboa, and the more recently opened Oceanus, which is basically an old department store just steps from the ferry terminal that was turned into a "gambling hall" a few years ago.
For the other 17 casinos licensed to SJM, they have to share the revenue with third party managements... some of which have become quite acrimonious recently. For example, a major junket aggregator that owns 27% of SJM's Greek Mythology casino recently got into it with SJM when SJM unilaterally decided to move 300 gaming tables out of Greek Mythology and relocate them to other SJM venues. By the time the smoke cleared from the dust-up, the junket aggregator's bottom line had been decimated, and it's CEO's wife had been murdered.
And you thought Adelson had problems with Jacobs!
... don't let it happen again, you little pip-squeak!
I want at LEAST 4 to 6 "Z" replies an hour on this post... NO EXCEPTIONS!
The Obama, ex-patriation crisis news needs to get out, and you're gonna get it out for us, understand?
Now, get to work, slacker.
Now, I'm done here for today. I don't have time to burn here all day like you do, auto-bump... that's why I hired your lazy assshh to bump this post for me.
I expect you to have this post bump count up to 510 by the time I return tomorrow... NO EXCEPTIONS!
Obey, auto-bump, or you're fired!
Today, the market is taking profits from the big rally. Comments from fed officials that are intended to quell some of Wednesday's enthusiasm are helping, with the word of the day being... "just because we didn't start tapering in September doesn't mean we won't in October if economic conditions warrant".
So, the market at this writing is off .79% (dow) to .56% (S&P) vs LVS's drop of .91%.
Looking at Value Line, the current beta calculation on LVS is 2.55, meaning that on average, when the S&P drops 1%, LVS typically drops 2.55% in positive correlation with the index.
Still, that encouraging read is mitigated by better relative strength among the other macau players, with Wynn actually up .30%, and MPEL up .06%.
So, we end the week with good beta... but crummy alpha.
Did I mention tripple-witching and index-reset machinations?
For that, allow me to introduce our expert on that subject... none other that MBABLITZ!
Take it away, Blitz... ::-O (deer in headlights)
I spend just enough time on the LVS junk board to bait him...
... for the sole purpose of keeping him THERE, and not somewhere else.
My feeling on this is simply that you won't have problems if you never respond to him directly with vitriol as Taxx does. If he ever reported me, yahoo would never see me addressing him but they WOULD see him badmouthing me non-stop, if the few posts I've seen between a given new alias and the iggy button are any indication.
Either way, besides the baiting, the only thing I'm doing on the junk board now is trolling for good posts that need to be re-posted in a better place.
G. Chum used to break it down in market-share terms, but his reports are all gone now that he's left UBS.
If memory serves, when you account for who actually benefits from SJM's market share, about half of it was benefitting SJM itself, and about half of it was benefitting the 3rd parties. As of last winter, I thinking it was splitting the roughly 30% overall share about 16% to SJM and about 14% to the 3rd parties.
The whole point in converting and opening the Oceanus, in 2010 I believe, was to act on Stanley Ho's insistence at that time that "Macau would never be like vegas and would only be a day-tripper destination for VIPs" to paraphrase approx. what Stanley Ho was consistently saying at that time. That's why that vacant dept. store building was chosen for it... because it's just steps from the inner-harbor ferry docks and it's the very first casino that the passengers see when they come ashore....
... it represents a completely different (wrong) vision from the one Adelson had when he built the gigantic Venetian... all alone out there on the vacant, cotai landfill back in 2007... the future centerpiece of 10 years worth of building critical mass... las vegas style.
Nowadays, no company worth it's salt buys out a conglomerate. What would be the point?
Nobody would buy Agilent as the stock recently flat-lined, in spite of all the intellectual property they would get, because Agilent has been in 2, completely different industries. Half of the company would be pure baggage for a potential suiter.
Not any more!
This split packages each surviving entity much more neatly as a takeover candidate. A medical technology company could now buy Sullivan's operation without having to swallow the T&M side of the business as an un-wanted bi-product of an acquisition.
Too bad HP wasn't this organizationally savvy when it comes to shareholder value.
Auto-bump! Thought I would get on here and check up on you, boy.
I see you're following my instructions like a good little GOP lap-dog and bumping this post per my requirements.
1 every 2 hours will get the message out about how badly Obama is screwing America by driving investment captital overseas and worstening U.S. unemployment.
It's good to see you supporting the effort to disrupt Obama socialsim, son.
You need to pick up the pace, however. 1 auto-bump every 2 hours isn't going to keep this post in the top 5 on page one as I require you to do... you must bump FASTER, or the democrats will gain ground on us.
Therefore, your orders for tonight are to bump this post every 90 minutes, auto-bump... NO EXCEPTIONS.
Get it done, son, for the good of your friend and mine... the GOP!
I'll check on you tomorrow, kid. See if you can knock out 30 more bumps before I get back, y'hear?
pj, I agree in principle with your 2010 analogy, but I'm not sure we're aligned otherwise. Here's my best take.
2010 was a blast of "euphoria" in the wake of the tremendously successful launch of Marina Bay. It was euphoric enough to compel me to sell a traunche of LVS (4% of my holdings) with some 5 times as much again if the stock had moved past $60 (2 limit orders were in)... but that never happened.
Now, we appear to be seeing something similar with the solid market share and foot traffic numbers we're getting out of Macau, combined with a "beta" move that's triggered primarily by an apparent china rebound from a soft landing, IMO. The question of the day... how far will this breakout carry the stock.
In early 2011, an effort to cool chinese growth combined with the nasty impact that Steve Jacobs had on Sands market share (by trashing sand's VIP) sending share from almost 24% in the spring of 2010 to almost 13% by sept. of 2011. THAT, IMO, is what aborted the breakout of 2010.
It's my hope, this time, that LVS will both attain, AND SUSTAIN, a euphoric breakout that provides me a rich exit price. I think it's reasonable, given current metrics and their trajectory, to figure that the investors could award this company 26-times a 2014 EPS of $3.50 and still call that "rational"... and that anything exeeding that, GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW TODAY, would be "euphoric" and have me ringing the register on LVS. That would mean that LVS moving above $90 would have me selling, and moving above $93 or $94 selling aggressively, if it happened before new years.
The "threshhold of euphoria" is a moving target, however. It would change if Sands were to put up a 25% market share on normal hold and my view of forward earnings, or their sustainability, were to change. The same would be true if the reverse were to happen and a stock price north of 84 began to look purely psychological.
Hope this helps. Measuring Psych is an in-exact science, for sure... but that's euphoria.
A footnote to the above.
I don't own stocks who's momentum pushes them into what I call "euphoria", per John Templeton's mantra. For the same reason that Warren Buffett was perfectly happy to sit out the "market euphoria" of 1999, I'm happy to sit out any euphoric, parabolic move that LVS might experience beyond what I consider to be rational metrics. Today, I may see that as 26 X $3.50 2014 EPS (normalized for hold, of course), but tomorrow I might see something on japan that says that 26x is too rich given an un-sustainable, forward PEG ratio overweights the prospect of japan... who knows!
Bottom line: my current view of what is rational, and what is irrationally euphoric is based on what I know today, and it changes as daily data floods the cerebral cortex day in and day out...
... but I will sell my initial, smaller traunches of LVS as we "approach" that threshhold, because it's best to be conservative with SOME money when you're trying to ascertain just where that "relatively intangible" threshhold actually IS.
I come out here to check up on you and you haven't bumped this post in 21 danm hours!
Put DOWN the bottle and put DOWN the hash-pipe and get to WORK, you little peies_ant!
Now start bumping... I want no fewer than a dozen "Z" replies on this post by this time tomorrow...
Obey, or your status as a GOP water-carrier will be in jeopardy... it is IMPERATIVE that this post stay on top of page 1 so that EVERYONE knows the magnitude of damage that Obama is doing to capital formation and capital deployment in the U.S.
Do you JOB, auto-bump.
I'll be back tomorrow to check up on you, hotboat... or mining_ged... or tbaman_host or whatever your f****n name is.
Holy Moly... that thing was a full-on cat 5 further out with winds exceeding 140.
I just checked Unisys weather and it's currently at cat 3 with a forcast of cat 2 when it hits...
... problem is, on it's current trajectory, it looks like it's heading toward a point barely 10 miles up the beach from Hong Kong.
@ pj... I'm not a chartist, but I appreciate your perspective. The cup and handle that we saw prior to the breakout WAS confirming the market's reaction to the powerful visitation and GGR market share we were seeing since July.
I read a lot on market psychology to help me determine what's rational and what's irrational. My post here on the 19th at 2:39 was one of thousands I've read over the decades since I dedicated my strategies to contrarian investing and started experiencing real success. LVS in 2007 was, itself, a case in point about the irrationality that can occur like the tech boom in the late 90s or the historic tulip bulb craze in Holland eons ago.
Bottom line... stay with value. It's hard with a company like LVS for many to see value... it has an IBD composite score in the high 90s for crying out loud. For that reason, I'd never buy more if it overweighed me in it.
I see value because the forward peg ratio for next year has normalized EPS growth and cashflow growth well above the P/E or P/CF, and there's enough evidence of growth above 20x for 2015 to protect a stock gain that rewards us for the 2014 forward PEG with the advance I expect. If I thought for 1 second that LVS couldn't grow 30% next year and 20% in 2015, I would sell the stock first thing Monday.
Just like irrational buying above a rational PEG, critical mass on coati has been a hard, intangible nut to crack... until the recent market share numbers and foot traffic surges made it less intangible and made the fall season look like a virtual lock.
Nice piece, except that overall retail sales across china would suggest that china's "consumption oriented" policies are only a small factor in Macau... but still valid.
He did better half way down by citing infrastructure, where I see the new trains as a sizable factor in growth.
You and I have also talked often about another of my favorites... the sustained growth in average, middle-class wages and salaries in China throughout the soft-landing period of time.
The problem is, taxes on corporations and wealthy americans (eg: those with investment capital to deploy into industry and the jobs it creates) are the highest in the world in the U.S...
... so companies choose to operate elsewhere and the US economy stagnates.
Now, the minimum wage is back under the microscope and I'm sure we'll raise it and end up pricing American labor out of the global marketplace again (wage-earners always guage pay by how far above minimum they are... minimum wage hikes result in hikes in the entire US wage and salary structure).
Same with health care... if obamacare raises the cost to companies, they'll locate elsewhere.
Obama is a socialist... democrats may not like that, but there's no point in not calling a spade a spade. Socialism weakens capitalism, and capitalism is the engine by which America's wealth was originally created...
... Obama is effectively removing the fuel from the engine of American capitalism via his socialist policies and the result is the slowest, post-recession recovery since world war 2, and the lowest "labor participation" rate since 1978.
It's absolutely nauseating that we have to put our country through 8 years of this!
OK, I'm back... and I have to say that you're doing better, auto-bump.
You put up 11 bumps of this important message and it appears that you never let it get more than half way down page one on this board.
Remember that if you're going to work for the GOP like this, you've got to be effective and at the top of your game. There's no room for slackers like they've got over there on the democrat side where they all sit around complaining about how unfair that it is to have WET( White Entertainment Television) and the CWC (Congressional White Caucus) without there being similar media and government organizations to represent other cultures in this country.
Your project for today, Son, is to figure out a way to change the defaults on this board so that everyone here automatically sees a posting for 6 months instead of 3. Your handlers at GOP central are telling me that it is so important to get the message out about Obama driving investment capital overseas that they want everyone to see this post for an extra 3 months "by default"...
... and your good buddy, Karl Rove, said he will personally thank you if you can get this post bumped at least 1,000 times by Thanksgiving.
Keep up the good work, a-bump.
Amazing lead post, blitz.
My health insurance premiums are up by about 65% since the initial impacts of Obamacare first took effect.
I was listening to Miller on the radio this morning and a guy from my state came on saying that he just got a letter from his insurance company telling him that his premiums will effectively double on January first due to Obamacare...
... looks like mine will be more than doubled in total once I get the letter that he just got.
With the huge financial bombs that are landing on us individuals, and corporations, to pay for Obamacare, it's amazing that it is so critical to also budget a lot of additional government spending for Obamacare in ADDITION to the huge hits on the rest of us. If Obama's claims about Obamacare's low costs were true, there would be FAR MORE than enough WITHOUT asking Boehner to cough up more in the US budget... or else Obama will shut down the US if he doesn't get it.
No law in American History was ever more poorly named that...
.......... the "affordable care act" (sic)
This is definately above the 6 month moving average for visitation. When combined with the ALOS multiplier, it's very encouraging.
Clearly, the new trains and expansions of the gates/ferry terminals are having an impact that's mostly evident with mainland chinese visitation.
Good to see you, neo.
We've managed to keep the lead posts on this board as constructive as possible in terms of info sharing.
That also goes for re-posting informative posts here from other boards when you run across them.
Hopefully, this board can serve as both a "best of LVS" and "best of macau gaming" refuge.
We havn't seen any riff-raff from the "junk" board here yet, but as a reminder, if we ever do, it's essential that we completely ignore them in every way.