"I agree. He needs to stop dithering and invade someone."
Some people don't learn. But thanks, I needed the laugh.
"If BJ reentered April 29 to July 16.............22% gain is a lie. No problem, many investors are legends in their own minds."
I've been posting here 5-6 years. (buzz can check me on this -- maybe I've blown this calculation too.) What I remember is that I have, over these years, posted my losses (which still exceed my gains over this period), my doubts about my own tactics and analyses, and in fact questioned my basic ability trade for a profit over the long term in this market. This seems to me to be a remarkably poor strategy for someone who is trying to see himself -- or fool others to believe -- that he is a trading "legend."
But buzz, please feel free to enlighten me why it makes sense to conclude that I deliberately misrepresented my FAS trade.
"Btw now you seem to be lowballing yourself this time around - the #s you quote make an 18.2% not 15.8% gain."
Thanks, dez. But butchering two elementary calculations (using a calculator) does not do wonders for my confidence or, of course, credibility.
Sold all my FAS and SPXL for 22% and 18% respectively. Ritholtz is talking about a further 5-10% correction and I don't like the potential political/financial setup going into the November elections. Understand I could miss another 100 or so points up, but willing to wait, maybe for Santa to come. Mostly in cash; still long JPNL, SVU (with semi-tight stop). See no percentage in shorting this market.
"Nyner, your being way to tough on the Oness. From all accounts not from his homies his admin has created about 100k jobs"
The SDS Board Unintentional Comedy Routine.
"Yes - The USA was a better shot in both Vietnam and Iraq.
Saddam swings from a rope. Bush smiles.
............... Being a better shot, is important."
Anyone from US smiling about Iraq made money or doesn't know or care much.
"Added to my short at 102. As always, especially in winter, I view my oil short as a mid to long term trade"
Covered my most recent 20% oil short for 13% profit. Still a little underwater on the balance.
"Palestinians fighting Israel Spilled blood in the name of God.
note - Israel is a better shot."
Yes. The US was by far the better shot in Vietnam and Iraq. Wars of occupation -- especially far from home -- are a problem. That said, because Israel can't be compared to our "allies" in those wars, it's different. But the tide, sadly from my viewpoint, is not favorable. It's a long war of attrition.
"It's not ZIRP that is holding up the market. QE is far more important."
Don't really follow your explanation. Market rise has been led by the financials, whose business plan is borrow short term, invest long term. ZIRP cheapens capital and also triggers search for yield, driving up asset prices. I don't pretend to assess QE, but don't see why ZIRP not a critical factor.
"You are mistaking the AAII for the II."
I guess that's right; I'm using AAII. But when you posted, isn't that what you were using? The numbers you posted, as far back as I remember, matched AAII.
What is the II?
" A smart and prudent CEO/CFO would do buybacks when stocks are cheap, dont' you think so."
Think that CEO's have their own stock, options, and wealth in mind.
"I think the sentiment situation will not be something the market can shake off. "
Only 11% bull advantage on II. Not a strong signal, right?
"i can finally log into this p.o.s. website"
Yeah, if I'm not on my machine where it's a favorite, I haven't been able to go here directly a lot, though sometimes I could go to other boards and get here by the other boards button.
Friday the heaviest volume by far since March. But market did nothing in a tight range. What does it mean? HFT covering selling or buying? HFT doing nothing but chasing their tails? Now admittedly I didn't check individual stocks or sectors. But all it makes me think at this point is that folks saying traditional market indicators don't work anymore are at least mostly right.
"at least I do not see deep value plays. Suggestions welcome "
If I saw the deep value plays, I'd be a lot richer than I am. But I'd say this: for us non-professionals, non-insiders, the issue may be what's less bad: losing money to inflation by safe investments (gov-guaranteed, but guaranteed to lose to inflation debt), other debt (bonds), or equity. I think equity is less bad, with reasonable stops. Think we're going to 2100 within a year.
II last week at 23% bull/bear differential, well below the 30% aapl sees as red flag, toppy, etc. We all recall that there were even higher differentials earlier this year. Still about 75% long; removed the really tight stops, so in a crash I'd lose more than 50% of my profits.