"Getting out right when the downside projections ("Oil to $80", "Oil to $70", etc) start to arrive."
Thanks, Aapl. Still have a relatively small short oil position, very manageable if there's a spike, a hedge for my longs, and with winter coming, who knows, might work out sooner than I expect.
"I noticed you avoided the math altogether this time"
Thanks, dez. Yes, I'm done with that. In fact, I debated saying anything given my profit calculation debacle. But I did post frequently about this short, so I thought it would be ok.
I would be short for tomorrow. The last two days were, since 2009, the bears' nightmare, the dreaded melt-up on light volume. It's such an obvious long play tomorrow that I would be short. But my day-trading inclinations -- like the bears -- have been pulverized.
"About UCO, oil is weak and looks like it's due for a bounce."
My UCO short is a long-term play unless I get lucky. It's a kind of a hedge for my two remaining longs, which were conviction investments: JPNL and SVU. It's a decay play -- all it takes to work is a year or two of fairly stagnant mean oil prices. And it wins big if there's a downturn, which seems possible -- though maybe not probable -- in 2015 with a supposedly more hawkish Fed in a politically significant period leading to the 1916 elections.
"I pulled a bjxxx with some faulty #s, now at 50% short, I was only at 45 not 55 yesterday"
Oh no, now I'm synonymous with a math mistake. ;) Seriously, nice that your short is coming around, though I haven't followed close enough to know if your short overall is in the black this year.
"I bought ERX today."
That worked. I got greedy for another .5 down in UCO, didn't partially cover, and only got .25 down. Not in the black now. Are you holding?
ISEE at 43 today; lowest I've seen. Yesterday sell off on relatively high volume. Given that this rally was on really good economic news, I'd guess these numbers are bullish. But I'm not putting my money anywhere right now except off the table.
" Fighting urge to do something for the sake of doing. That is when I make bad trades. Opportunity will show itself sooner or later. That is what I learned over last 15 years."
Wisdom. Thanks for reminding me.
I hate this market, going down on the first really good news about the economy in months. Though I loves the effect on my oil short, now solidly in the black.
But I'm not buying this dip. I don't know wtfk it is. Maybe in Oct or Nov I'll buy, in time for Santa. If I want to be really conservative, I'll wait till the election is over. But more probably October.
"I think, as a bear, I am at the acceptance stage of grief."
I resemble that remark. Speaking of ci, sounds like capitulation. But in this market, so what? Even if it crashes tomorrow, this time is different.
"I agree. He needs to stop dithering and invade someone."
Some people don't learn. But thanks, I needed the laugh.
"If BJ reentered April 29 to July 16.............22% gain is a lie. No problem, many investors are legends in their own minds."
I've been posting here 5-6 years. (buzz can check me on this -- maybe I've blown this calculation too.) What I remember is that I have, over these years, posted my losses (which still exceed my gains over this period), my doubts about my own tactics and analyses, and in fact questioned my basic ability trade for a profit over the long term in this market. This seems to me to be a remarkably poor strategy for someone who is trying to see himself -- or fool others to believe -- that he is a trading "legend."
But buzz, please feel free to enlighten me why it makes sense to conclude that I deliberately misrepresented my FAS trade.
"Btw now you seem to be lowballing yourself this time around - the #s you quote make an 18.2% not 15.8% gain."
Thanks, dez. But butchering two elementary calculations (using a calculator) does not do wonders for my confidence or, of course, credibility.
Sold all my FAS and SPXL for 22% and 18% respectively. Ritholtz is talking about a further 5-10% correction and I don't like the potential political/financial setup going into the November elections. Understand I could miss another 100 or so points up, but willing to wait, maybe for Santa to come. Mostly in cash; still long JPNL, SVU (with semi-tight stop). See no percentage in shorting this market.
"Nyner, your being way to tough on the Oness. From all accounts not from his homies his admin has created about 100k jobs"
The SDS Board Unintentional Comedy Routine.
"Yes - The USA was a better shot in both Vietnam and Iraq.
Saddam swings from a rope. Bush smiles.
............... Being a better shot, is important."
Anyone from US smiling about Iraq made money or doesn't know or care much.
"Added to my short at 102. As always, especially in winter, I view my oil short as a mid to long term trade"
Covered my most recent 20% oil short for 13% profit. Still a little underwater on the balance.