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Amgen Inc. Message Board

blackboxfund 506 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 5, 2013 4:57 PM Member since: May 8, 2012
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  • CS PT $10 due to CLF's high net debt and lower IO pricess. Excerpt...........
    Calling against the short-term trend
    There are whispers on Wall Street that mining and natural-resources stocks, particularly coal and iron ore, could rally, much like solar stocks earlier this year. Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE: CLF ) has been a popular choice, rallying 22% in the last month.

    Credit Suisse isn't so optimistic, giving the $24 stock a $10 price target and saying the company's assets are unlikely to be profitable without high iron-ore prices. Credit Suisse lays out its valuation call in detail, beginning with the company's dependence on Canadian and Asia-Pacific assets, its production, and the lower prices of iron ore.

    Credit Suisse notes that because of lower prices, the company will generate just 16% to 23% EBITDA margins, rather than the 40% to 50% margins that we've seen in years prior. The firm translates this to annual operating earnings of just $200 million to $300 million, and with a historical multiple of five, the company's worth becomes $1.5 billion to $2 billion -- half its current valuation.

    The problem for Cliffs is its $3.1 billion in net debt, which has risen each of the last four years. Credit Suisse doesn't think Cliffs will be able to meet these obligations. With that said, Credit Suisse's call was thorough and displayed exactly what you want to see in a call.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Southern Co. (SO) is building a new coal plant in Mississippi that will gassify low-cost lignite and then capture the carbon dioxide and sell it to oil drillers. Oil producers use carbon dioxide to recover oil from oil fields, and the liquefied gas stays underground.

    Once the Mississippi plant goes live next year “it makes every existing coal plant seem pretty obsolete,” John Thompson, director of the fossil transition project at the Clean Air Task Force, said in an interview. It can “transform the way fossil fuels are used.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • WLT the short Hedge Funds have waited for two days to have you see the OBAMANATION news Too bad they are wrong the Coals are a BUY

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is only the beginning AGAIN...

    The basic concept is for the Capitol SkyMine plant in San Antonio, being developed by Austin’s Skyonic Corp., to capture much of the carbon dioxide gases emitted from the coal-burning Capitol Aggregates cement plant. Zachary Construction of San Antonio owns the cement plant.

    The carbon dioxide will be converted into products such as baking soda (sodium bicarbonate) and hydrochloric acid, which can be used for hydraulic fracturing in oil and gas fields.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • from 24/7 wall st. today

    The research team at Merrill Lynch has found that global investors remain very “underweight” in their holdings of metals and mining shares, while valuations do not look stretched. This contrasts with decent fundamentals for a range of commodities: global steel prices have been rising, China has been restocking iron ore and the pace of copper destocking in the country has slowed. Yet, as they point out in a new research report, positioning in the equities has just started to adjust. The key takeaway for investors? The potential upside in the stocks more than outweighs the downside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Using multiple time periods, etc. Over 3 months the four Coals have appreciated almost equally percentage wise, however WLT has outperformed the group from the quarter end low on June 30

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Everybody is looking to find a stock that they can get a big return on. Well, what if I told you that I know of one that could potentially yield you a “twelve-bagger?”

    That’s right–this stock could go up as much as 1200% from its current price.
    This company seems to have all the right stuff, earning twice as much profit per dollar as the U.S. average for other companies in its field. Its product is considered the highest quality and is more desirable than its competitors.

    Walter Energy could fetch $240 a share in a takeover, based on the 2012 earnings multiple that Peabody Energy Corp. ($BTU) and ArcelorMittal are offering for Macarthur Coal Ltd. ($MCC), the letter said. That would be double Walter Energy’s closing price of $119.64 yesterday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • perspective is always important ... Read this Ancient news story about WLT
    Posted on StockTwits today ...
    What price for Walter Energy, if it really really rains again in January in Queensland, AU
    or if some Foreign Steel/Coke making Company wants to get WLT again

    This post originally appeared on TraderPlanet

    Everybody is looking to find

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Sep 10, 2013 3:44 PM Flag

    Someone just bought a million plus shares ... Up at the Fib technical resistance
    and we know they are not amateurs just trading on street chatter...
    A pretty good closing Bid around 15.50 also

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Sep 10, 2013 5:39 AM Flag

    China is giving the world another boost today, reporting better-than-expected August industrial production. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index gained 1.2%. Coal miners and steel makers led the gain. Yanzhou Coal Mining (YZC) gained 4.2%.

    Hong Kong Hang Seng Index gained 0.7%, led by China Coal Energy (CCOZY)’s 6.3%.

    Sentiments in India continue to improve. Indian rupee rose as much #$%$6% in the last four days, the biggest gain since at least 1973. The S&P BSE SENSEX Index gained 2.4%,

    The Syria overhang on emerging markets is receding. It looks like U.S. is not going to attack as long as Syria hands over its chemical weapons, which Russia is working on right now

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) data, coking coal futures for Dec and March have moved above mid-May levels and are up ~20% off the July lows.


    Annual HCC demand is forecast to rise from a 2012 level of 150 million tonnes ("Mt") to 230Mt in 2030.

    Currently the metallurgical market as a whole is seeing a slight oversupply, but additional mines need to come online by 2022 to address expected future supply shortfalls.

    Quarterly pricing for HCC has dipped below marginal production cost, reaching the 90th percentile on the global cost curve, and prices are expected to bottom during Q3 2013.

    An average price (2012 dollars) of $180/t is expected in the period 2014 to 2020. This is in line with Cardero's assumed baseline prices used in the Company's 2012 Prefeasibility Study.

    In Wood Mackenzie's analysis, pricing is forecast to increase through the proposed production period. Prices beyond 2020 are expected to respond to higher production costs and will reach $225/t by 2030 (2012 dollars).

    Future trends in export metallurgical coal quality will be influenced by the finite nature of high quality metallurgical coal deposits. In the coming years, exported metallurgical coal quality will likely increase in ash content (up to an estimated 10% to 12%), resulting in lower quality products, particularly with respect to key FSI and CSR. The most notable feature of the Carbon Creek coals is a low ash, with HCC washing to 4.0% to 6.0% ash content.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • just a bunch of meaningless guys who saw an easy trendline and followed it with their BS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Are you just upset at being let go or is it because you were fired from Walter Energy ?

    We can look into your records and find out the truth... Do you want to tell us what it really is ?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • blackboxfund blackboxfund Sep 6, 2013 12:39 PM Flag

    Yes... at the TOP of a Mountain you must GO down to get some AIR and at the Bottom of the Ocean there are very few there

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Sep 6, 2013 12:32 PM Flag

    The feeling of drowning is what the shorts are now experiencing ... I have been the in the OCEAN of dispair before with NO HOPE of Living !
    Many times in reality and cyberspace

  • This is the worst Short Fund manipulation the Street Analyst opinions and Rating Agencies I have ever experienced and is worthy of my anger

    On another note AUD/USD almost made a breakout again to the upside this morning ...So the Aussie cost advantage is potentially disappearing as we thought

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I told them that they can't have mine !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • SYDNEY, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Australian shipments of iron ore to China looked to have stayed strong in August, a month after Australia boasted its second-highest exports ever to the Asian giant and a sign of healthy demand for resources.

    Iron ore exports to China from Port Hedland, which handles about a fifth of the global seaborne market for the steel-making raw material, rose 9 percent in August from July.

    Ore shipments of 22.3 million tonnes were up a hefty 33 percent on August last year and not far from all-time highs hit in May. Since the figures are released just a few days after the end of the month, they offer a timely leading indicator of demand in China.

    Australia is the single largest supplier of the ore to China, ahead of Brazil.

    Iron ore is Australia's single biggest export earner, bringing in around A$60 billion ($54.9 billion) in a good year. The strength of shipments increases the chance that Australia will report a trade surplus for August, and also add to economic growth.

  • I know that I have never had such a large position in anything that acted in every time frame and traded with the volitility like what goes on here at the WLT symbol... It must be great to be able to front run any incoming REAL orders
    IN the last few months... UPdown DOWNup etc.

    However I believe ...that barring WWIII... the shares are significantly undervalued given an improving Met Coal price

    I did buy AUD/USD two days ago at 89.50 so obviously I think the currency headwind is ending for Coal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Almost none of my posts are technical and short term price driven... I can recognize what I believe to be a 90% OFF share price sale with a few years of chart history because I am not blind ... I then just rely on an interpretation fundementally of balance sheets, income statements, and market sentiment flows relative to all the business supply and demand factors

    I also add in my 40 year professional educated guess, having traded from a Global Macro perspective almost every financial asset known to mankind under the sun

    With a small helping of courage, you know, AllINorAllOut and a little LUCK ... I only try to buy stocks which I think can trade 10 times higher

    Buy Coal anyway you can as it is probably one of the cheapest hard assets compared to most others Today

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

158.30-2.26(-1.41%)Apr 29 4:00 PMEDT