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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

blackboxfund 506 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 5, 2013 4:57 PM Member since: May 8, 2012
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  • If I thought ... there is a Bearish scenario which would win in the short run... I would be a heavily leveraged short against all asset classes, as none survive a selloff like in 2008-2009

    I posted that I predicted no SYRIAN war last week, and if your US Congress has any credibility they will vote a war down also..

    However, some BIG money like Saudi/BIG Oil interests and probably even Russia want oil to go to $200

    But, today this minutre I obviously do not feel that tomorrow I should be SHORT anything ...otherwise if you wanted to know I would tell you...

    That is why I waste my time on this board... only to provide what I believe is good and reasonable thinking in a few stocks that are suffering at low prices from their depths of dispair ! That is only where I BUY and most others always say SELL SELL SELL

    When I am wrong I will admit it ... so ...

    RISK and REWARD my friend that is gambling...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I just have my money at risk just like anyone else holding this stock ...

    and if anyone calls WLT with some good questions, their IR department will answer your questions very well ...these are PRO's at work .

    look at the Board of Directors bios. None of the short HEDGE FUNDS know the real truth about the long term coal picture... they are just doing their long short pairs trades and taking a position against a levered cashflow.

    Oh, do not look at past share price performance for any guidance because, WLT has loans outstanding... They did have the same debts at $100+ per share.

    After 40 years I now clearly see that it is always the Darkest before the dawn, and that is ONLY where I put my money.... but there are so many Global factors to impede the WLT upside in the near term that , it is not yet the perfect time to SQUEEZE the SHORT interest .

    AUD/USD, tapering, MET over supply and SYRIA OUS being more than a few already priced in IMHO.

    But tWLT is only a publicly traded stock, among discrete markets representing industry sector performance and supply/demand expectations... so that is why I have a large position ...I LOVE all the COAL stocks as a long term investment holding from here to eternity. ETERNITY !

    It is true that this oal group is a much better risk to 5 times expected reward than the Solar sector that I have invested in since last year...AT

    as you know I only buy from the new LOW list ... Ed

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • a quote on the Walter website ...

    “Walter is the best way to gain exposure to upward
    coking coal price momentum. The company offers pure
    play exposure to coking coal… offers better risk-reward
    and downside protection due to its lower cost position
    and premium mix”
    Morgan Stanley l Feb 19 2013

    So if coking coal goes up in price, then what pps for WLT I wonder ? ...

    All Coal Mining experts are welcome to can respond, about anything that they think is relevent to the current and future Global Met Coal picture as I understand it ...

    But do not tell me about the LOANS unless you are so experienced in Highly leveraged cyclical mining companies finance that you could add meaningful value that is not already priced into the current WLT price per share

    Everyone except the trapped SH...i..Or ..it Funds seem to realize, that WLT now has the backing of it's financing group which equals a GREENLIGHT from their Banks last month , for 2+ more years !!!

    Andall other options are on the table to increase shareholder value, above the $70 insider buys ...

    Good luck Shorts... finding the 30 MILLION shares to cover with lower than $12.94 per share !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The Micex Index (INDEXCF) added 0.6 percent to 1,372.17 rubles by 11:24 a.m. in Moscow after an 0.8 percent retreat last month. OAO Mechel, Russia’s biggest producer of coal for steelmakers, climbed 1.3 percent to 98.10 rubles, the most since Aug. 26. Oil producer OAO Bashneft rose 1.8 percent to 1,929.70 rubles after UBS AG raised the stock to buy, citing its earnings outlook.

    China’s economy is strengthening after a two-quarter slowdown, with a manufacturing gauge rising to a 16-month high in August, an official report showed yesterday. The Micex gauge fell 2 percent last week after Russia cut its 2013 economic-growth forecast for the second time this year. The country receives about half of its budget revenue from the oil and natural-gas industries.

    “Russian commodity companies will benefit if Chinese growth recovers,” Oleg Popov, who manages $1 billion of securities for Allianz Investments, the asset-management arm of Europe’s biggest insurer, said by phone from Moscow. “This is especially positive news for metal companies.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 206 to 236 short tons of steel per mile ...per Rail

    GO figure the long distances involved ... Railway construction will be focused in poorer, mostly rural areas in China. Beijing also announced an initiative to attract more private investment by establishing a railway investment fund.

    The CHINA 2013 stimulus-on-the-quiet program is already having an effect. For example, the amount of steel for infrastructure overtook steel used in housing recently, an indication that government stimulus—not property construction—is now driving growth.

    in the 1950s most roads settled on 113-117 lb rails as the standard. There has been some shift back to 133 to 136 lb rail for those roads handling heavy unit coal trains.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • China official PMI hits 16-month high in August
    Reuters – 8 hours ago
    Email 0Recommend4Tweet0Share0Print
    Related ContentView PhotoAn employee works inside a silk factory in Neijiang, Sichuan province, July 3, 2013.

    BEIJING (Reuters) - China's factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than a year in August with a jump in new orders, official data showed on Sunday, raising hopes that a rapid economic slowdown in the world's second-largest economy may have been arrested.
    The purchasing managers' index (PMI) figure, published by the National Bureau of Statistics, rose to 51.0 in August from 50.3 in July, the highest level since last April and ahead of market expectations of 50.6 in a Reuters poll.
    A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity, while a reading below 50 points to a contraction.
    Beijing has stepped up efforts to prevent a sharp economic slowdown by quickening railway investment and public housing construction and introducing a series of measures to help smaller companies, which could sustain the revival of internal demand in the coming months.
    "We are seeing clearer signs of economic conditions improving," said Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JP Morgan in Hong Kong.
    "One of the reasons is the lagging effect of credit growth earlier in the year, while the second is the recent shift in the policy stance and more concrete policy announcement."
    As one of the first leading indicators gauging economic momentum, the improved reading could bode well for other August data, further confirming a stabilizing trend in the economy.
    The official survey showed an across-the-board recovery in all sub-indices, ranging from new orders and quantity of purchases to input prices and employment, pointing to a positive picture for the vast factory sector.
    "The PMI figure showed evident recovery in August, suggesting the economy is further stabilizing," Zhang Liqun, an economist at the Development Resear

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In early April, the status quo was exuberant when none other than Goldman Sachs issued a "sell" on the barbarous relic that has become so indicative of the exuberance of central planning. At the time, we were skeptical (to say the least) and, just for extra Muppetting, the bank also suggested its clients buy Treasuries. Well, now that the full details of holdings changes have been released for Q2, it is perhaps clearer than ever before that as the bank was telling its clients to "sell, sell, sell" it was itself "buy, buy, buy"-ing the Gold ETF (GLD) with both arms and feet. In Q2, Goldman Sachs added a stunning (and record) 3.7 million 'shares' of GLD. As Paulson dumped his GLD, Goldman lapped it up to become the ETF's 7th largest holder.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • On Friday afternoon Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Singer put out a note on coal, maintained Neutral coverage on the group. He is cautious on the recovery in met and sees demand challenges in thermal.

    "Spot met coal prices have risen to $146/MT and are now above 3Q benchmark settlement level of $145/MT and slightly below our 4Q benchmark forecast of $150/MT. The recovery in spot prices is in line with our view and has been driven by renewed buying interest from China and relatively tight supply from Australia (which we believe is temporary due in part to vacations and port maintenance work). However, we still see 15-20 MM MT oversupply and believe wider supply reductions/rationalizations will be needed as demand growth for met coal slows. As such, we reiterate our Neutral coverage view, which reflects our conclusion that the path to a recovery in metallurgical coal prices is likely to be slow."
    Regarding thermal, Singer said, "While we see an improvement in thermal coal prices as natural gas prices recover, we continue to see demand in the US challenged long-term by coal plant retirements . . . Despite thermal inventories trending near normal levels in PRB and NAPP, milder than normal summer weather and low gas prices have impeded a recovery in thermal coal prices. We continue to expect thermal coal prices to improve in 4Q13 as inventories fall further."

    Goldman has Buy rating on select coal stocks, including SunCoke Energy Inc. (NYSE: SXC) and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD). Walter Energy, Inc. (NYSE: WLT) and Alpha Natural Resources are Sell-rated.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Only a 3% oversupply ...

    Global steel production is dependent on coal – around 68% of total global steel production relies directly on inputs of coal. 761Mt of coking coal and Pulverised Coal Injection (PCI) coals are used in global steel production, which is around 12% of total hard coal consumption worldwide.

    In 2011, world crude steel production was 1,518 million metric tons. This was an increase of 6% compared to 2010 and a new record for global crude steel production.

    Currently almost 70% of global steel is produced in Basic Oxygen Furnaces (BOF). Coking coal is converted to coke, which is then used in the blast furnace to smelt iron ore. The resulting molten iron is then taken to the BOF, where steel scrap and limestone are added. A stream of high purity oxygen is blown through the molten bath to remove impurities, leaving almost pure liquid steel.

    About 770 kg of coal are required to produce 1 tonne of steel in this production route.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • you will not respond I think because you are who you are, and who you are, you always will be............nothing and meaningless to everyone except yourself

    and Walter would be UP today if there was not a down 3% market

    No more stock for the Shorts ... I do this for 40 years ...are you experienced?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Walter will be at $15 by Friday

    This may have been deleted earlier but so what RISK RULES and ILOVEIT

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So, Walter will be at $15+ by Friday... Take your chance and make a BET ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The decrease in the two week short interest of 3MM shares, implies no more short selling money is willing to short more and the TIDE has now turned on them... The large Short selling Hedge Funds will be left high and dry once again on Walter Energy, they are now looking for only 26MM shares to cover with.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Shares of Peabody, the world's largest private-sector coal company, could double as a better balance between supply and demand boosts coal prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • SAN ANTONIO — A construction materials company and a chemical company have teamed up to build a $125 million chemical plant that proposes to demonstrate to the world how greenhouse carbon dioxide emissions can be captured and converted to marketable products.

    The basic concept is for the Capitol SkyMine plant in San Antonio, being developed by Austin’s Skyonic Corp., to capture much of the carbon dioxide gases emitted from the coal-burning Capitol Aggregates cement plant. Zachary Construction of San Antonio owns the cement plant.

    The carbon dioxide will be converted into products such as baking soda (sodium bicarbonate) and hydrochloric acid, which can be used for hydraulic fracturing in oil and gas fields.

    Coal exports: Battle looms over expanding shipments of coal in Houston

    Capitol SkyMine will be the first plant of its kind. If successful, Skyonic plans to license its technology to companies around the world, Skyonic communications director Stacy MacDiarmid said. That raises the possibility that carbon dioxide emissions elsewhere could be captured to make profitable non-gas products instead of increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, trapping the sun’s heat.

    Skyonic plans to break ground on its chemical plant at the cement plant site later this month. The plant is set to begin partial operation by the second half of 2014.

    The project has received two U.S. Department of Energy grants totaling $28 million. Other investors are BP Ventures, Houston’s ConocoPhillips, Cenovus Energy, Bluecap Partners, Energy Technology Ventures, Berg & Berg Enterprises, Northwater Capital Management and PVS Chemicals.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yesterday I studied the changes in Institutional shareholdings and wrote an in depth summary to post to this board . I forgot to copy it and Yahoo deleted the post because I referenced the NASDAQ website.

    Anyway to make a long story short only JP Morgan with 4 + million shares is left to sell after the June 30th holdings where reported . they sold 30% of their position in WLT and 50% of their holdings of BTU.
    All of the other 10 BIG sellers of WLT sold their entire positions as of the end of 2Q...

    SAC sold almost no shares percentage wise so they still have 3+ million.
    I would have made more sense if SAC needed or wanted to sell they would have joined the crowd as the WLT shares bottomed at the end of June.

    Brand NEW Institutional names were buying over 5+ million between March and June.

    The shares that were sold by the Old sold out institutions and those just cutting back were 29 million .
    Those that were current holders added 23 million.

    Remember those 10 that sold about 20 Million shares last Quarter could buy back in as they have previously approved the
    name and know the long term potential for Walter Energy.

    I just wonder where the short selling funds are going to find the TENS of Millions of shares they will need to cover with ?
    When WLT gets its long term financing package together again.

  • RIO DE JANEIRO--Production and consumption of steel in Brazil this year will likely fall short of initial estimates, as producers face a global surplus of the industrial metal and a sluggish local economy weighs on demand, the Brazilian Steel Institute said Tuesday.
    The institute, known as IABr, reduced its forecast for crude steel output this year to 34.5 million metric tons from an initial view of 36.51 million tons. Brazil produced 34.52 million tons of crude steel in 2012.
    Apparent steel consumption, or domestic sales plus imports, is now seen at 25.99 million tons, up 3.2% from last year but down from an initial forecast of 26.24 million tons, the IABr said.
    For 2014, the institute expects Brazil's apparent steel consumption to rise to 26.98 million tons.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A rally in iron ore prices to five-month highs has spurred optimism a stabilizing economy may help top buyer China absorb rising global supply, prompting some analysts and traders to raise their estimates for the second half of the year.
    But other forecasters stuck to their price projections, convinced the recent upturn would be short-lived and could quickly falter if Chinese steel demand fizzles out during an anticipated peak season that starts next month.
    Still, a rosier outlook suggests that the second-biggest shipped commodity after oil will remain a boon to top miners Vale SA
    "We see stronger-than-expected iron ore demand in the second half since mills have to replenish supplies after destocking in the first half," said Graeme Train, a commodity analyst with Macquarie in Shanghai. "Stronger steel demand will support ore."
    Train sees iron ore at around $125 to $130 a tonne in the second half, up from a previous forecast of $120, with the possibility of even stronger prices in the fourth quarter.
    Beijing's plan to boost investment in urban infrastructure and railways is also pushing steelmakers to keep output high.
    China's crude steel output could rise by 64 million tonnes, or 9 percent, to a record 780 million tonnes this year, the state economic planning agency said earlier this month.
    That increase in steel output translates to nearly 100 million tonnes of additional iron ore demand, outpacing analysts' estimated increase in global seaborne iron ore supply of 48 million to 65 million tonnes this year.
    But other analysts see the rally as fleeting.
    CLSA commodity strategist Ian Roper said the jump in prices only adds "a bit of upside" to the second-half price average, and sees it as a short-term bounce driven by stronger steel orders and the fact that the expected supply increase hasn't come through yet.
    Roper sees iron ore averaging $115 a tonne in July-December, and falling to $95 in 2014.
    Standard Bank analyst Melinda Moore has similarly maintained her price

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As SAC Capital Advisors LP prepares to hand back most of the client money it still manages, Wall Street banks are taking steps to ensure they're protected from the government's threat to seize assets of the hedge-fund firm, according to people familiar with the matter.
    Friday marks a quarterly deadline for SAC clients to request withdrawals from the hedge-fund firm. SAC executives expect payouts requested this month, combined with those made earlier this year, to largely deplete the roughly $6 billion in outside capital that SAC managed at the start of 2013, the people said.
    The payouts will take months to fulfill, and they won't directly affect the nearly $9 billion in assets belonging to founder Steven A. Cohen or his employees. SAC currently has about $14 billion in assets under management, after paying out portions of investor redemptions quarterly.

  • Also, it seems to be about a 50% retracement of the recent drop from the peak...
    Fundamentally, if Met goes back above $200 then I do not see a reason why WLT will not trade there again, given the casflow will allow the loans to be refinanced.

    and there is a bit of short interest that has not yet started to cover....today it was obvious from early this morning that all the metals and miners were to be sold off.

    probably Goldman slinging and doing it's #$%$ best to screw with the coal /steel market sectors after yesterdays relative strength

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

162.24-1.94(-1.18%)Nov 25 4:00 PMEST

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