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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

blackboxfund 506 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 5, 2013 4:57 PM Member since: May 8, 2012
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  • If WLT can get back to 12.99 it will be the same as last Fridays close...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Great news!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A trader described seeing mountains of coal piled up in
    Alabama, but difficulty getting offers from Walter Energy
    And Cliffs Natural Resources for their premium coals at previous
    indicative prices.

    October would likely see
    price increases across all the coal types should the spot tendency
    continue, the buyer said.
    Miners in the US may hold back from making more sales
    ahead of October cargo talks, while one source said marketing
    efforts were now being focused on US domestic contracts
    for the year starting January 2014, adding that prices to local
    customers must be higher than in the seaborne market to
    ensure costs are covered.
    Inventory of US met coal was high and will take time to
    clear owing to operational constraints, the source said. This
    is the case even if demand was suddenly higher. “There was
    no pressure to move tons,” he said.
    ‘Mountains’

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Last week was sector buying and WLT outperformed because there are very few shares available for the Sector players to position down here ... The rest was the HFT and naked shorts fighting it out ... The key to the BIG up move will be MET pricing increases, a sale of some non core assets and a new loan refinancing package ... All of those events have to happen in order for me to sell at my target $66.66 !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The Steel Index reported that benchmark Australian iron ore containing 62-percent iron rose to $133.10 a tonne, its highest level in three months, on Wednesday.

    Putting that number into perspective, the Financial Times said prices are nowhere near their peak of $200 a tonne during the Chinese construction boom, but are still over three times levels reached in 2007. The steelmaking ingredient has risen 20 percent since the start of June despite pessimism from other commodities sectors underpinned by a slowdown in the Chinese economy.


    While demand for iron ore has been sluggish all year, a recent report from Macquarie, an Australian bank, indicates that sentiment is improving in the Chinese steel sector. That’s important because China accounts for about 60 percent of the seaborne trade in iron ore and is the world’s largest consumer of the commodity. The Macquarie report quoted by the Financial Times “pointed to a ‘marked improvement in sentiment’, noting that orders had improved and steelmakers were no longer destocking raw materials such as iron ore. Purchasing plans ‘have moved back up into positive territory, which should be supportive for prices.’”

    In fact, even better times may be ahead for the steel market, which would translate to good prices for iron, according to Metal-Pages. It reported Wednesday that Austrian producer Voestalpine (VIE:VOE) is forecasting increases in steel prices by the fourth quarter, helped by current low inventories. Other analysts say the market could go into oversupply and counteract the recent price recovery.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Coal and coke exports from Ridley Terminals
    in Prince Rupert, British Colombia, totaled 1,108,292 metric
    tons in July, up 30.1% from the prior month and up
    6.6% from the year-ago quarter, according to data released
    Wednesday by the Prince Rupert Port Authority.
    The port authority did not cite a reason for the increase
    and terminal spokeswoman Michelle Bryant was unavailable
    Wednesday.
    Metallurgical coal exports in July increased to 750,580 mt, up
    42.3% from June and up 25.1% from a year-ago. Year-to-date met
    coal shipments total 4,768,744 mt, up 19.6% compared with 2012.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As the hopeless investors wake up to another early morning spike in the WLT share price ...
    But knowing that any minute the HFT naked Short selling computers will drive the price back down to the RED ZONE

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Prices and liquidity in the seaborne metallurgical
    coal market rose on Tuesday as Chinese steel mills restocked.
    Pl,tts assessed premium low-vol hard coking coal $1.50
    higher at $150/mt CFR China, or a Panamax freight-derived
    netback of $137/mt FOB Australia. Cargoes shipping on
    cheaper Capesize vessels were achieving better FOB netbacks
    as cargoes tended to compete on a delivered basis. Secondtier
    material remained steady at $137/mt CFR China.
    On the buy-side, two purchasing managers with large
    state-owned mills said demand was relatively strong right
    now, supported by re-stocking demand as well as the early
    winter stocking in northern China because some ports there
    are usually blocked by ice in winter.

    An Australian mining source said the recent price rise was
    sustainable. “It’s not a one-off event.”
    A spot deal for one of Australia’s top brands of coking
    coal was heard done late last week or early this week at
    around $150/mt CFR or slightly above.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vSingapore—The Asia-Pacific metallurgical coal market was
    relatively steady Monday with sellers unwilling to
    compromise on offer prices while buyers remained reluctant
    to catch up with offers.
    Pl,tts assessed premium low-vol coking coal unchanged at
    $148.50/mt CFR north China while second-tier material saw
    an increase of $1 to $137/mt CFR China.

    Another believed that prices could increase by another
    $10/mt, but he felt that prices would not going back to
    the levels witnessed in early 2013 where the high point
    was at $187/mt CFR China for premium low-vol mid
    February.
    One Beijing-based trader also felt that the market mood
    was slightly better with indicative bids from end-users still
    healthy and not suggesting any price decrease.
    Perhaps as a result of this optimism, some sellers have
    begun to hold back on supplies, not budging on their offers.
    “Sellers, including us, are waiting for further price
    increment,” one Shanghai-based trading source said.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You are one of the best I have ever read on the Yahoo boards and it is only after a few decades that I could highlight someone like you.

    So all the best to you and your family for your GREAT Character and conviction...

    Ed at BBF

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Asia-Pacific metallurgical coal prices continued
    to climb Friday on slightly improved buying appetite from
    Chinese end-users. Pl,tts premium low-vol hard coking coal
    gained $1 to $148.50/mt CFR China and second-tier HCC
    also went up by $1 to $136/mt CFR.
    Most sellers and buyers in China agreed that price and
    market sentiment had became stronger in China on
    improved demand from end-users, though concerns were
    raised as to how long this could continue.
    “The market is improving; it is slightly more optimistic,”
    one Chinese participant said.
    Perhaps hinting that the rally could not last, a miner said
    imported premium coals had increased to the same level as
    domestic material. Seaborne materials would therefore be less
    price competitive compared with Chinese supplies, he said.
    On the buy-side, a purchasing manager with a large steel
    mill said he was still hesitating to buy as he said there might
    be a chance for domestic coking coal prices to drop again.
    Price-wise, for premium HCC, an offer was repeatedly
    heard at $153/mt CFR for a low-vol Australian premium HCC

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yes it was produced at higher prices but ... they could shut down everything and tell everybody to go home and still make debt service for 3 or 4 YEARS selling inventory !

    This implies that NO Big buyer will propose to take the remaining reserves on the cheap over the next 3-4 years ....again, just a thought for your consideration

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In my opinion the odds are VERY Low of any kind of BK and or credit event in the next year ... As the management have many financing options open to them TODAY...

    Not the least of which is my Berkshire, BHP or Anglo convertible preferred deal proposal with a $15 strike ...
    With a 1st right of refusal on a follow on Cvt... The shorts will drive the stock up to $35 almsot immediately with a new strategic partner involved with the financial health of WLT...
    and the Banking group will lend at better terms ... almost irrespective of 2013 - 2014 Met prices.

    Also all of the new China stimulus is aimed at heavy steel consumption industries... As is the railroads to be built in Russia etc etc.

    So say what you will about a stock in a bottoming process ... the more blood in the streets the better I like it.

    Been there and done that for 34 years and when it works it works BIG !

    Take a look at my messages about FSLR and SPWR last year... Same B s just a different industry...

    Just relax MET coal pricing is rising now and BHP is raising their prices again also ..even with the AUS/USD at 3 year lows...

    So shorts do your homework we are going UP from today onwards... Unless the fing market tanks but that does not seem too likely in the next month either....

    If I could only figure out how to buy the whole company for myself, before it is $40 again ...

    Any experienced IBankers out there in Yahoo land with a large PE pool of capital ?

    WLT is a tiny player in the greater scheme of things and the Big players could gooble it up in an instant
    and refinace the loan at their rate of interest.
    IMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Aug 2, 2013 8:29 AM Flag

    In the current market environment, a significant proportion of global production is uneconomic, and, consequently, production cutbacks have been widespread, with several cutbacks recently announced in Australia and the United States. Thus, the market may begin to move back toward supply/demand balance. In the intermediate to long run, the world is expected to require increasing volumes of met coal, and assuming market conditions improve—driven by the current dearth of new development projects in the face of today's challenging market conditions—we believe Alpha will be well-positioned to benefit from its leadership position in met coal reserves, met coal production and export terminal capacity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Offers for Australian premium coals were heard
    substantially higher than earlier this week. A Chinese
    steelmaker was Thursday offered one of Australia’s top
    branded premium low-vols at $153/mt CFR China for a
    Panamax vessel loading mid-September.
    End-users mostly felt this price was too high with their
    highest indicative bids at $145-146/mt CFR China. The last
    deal reported for Australian premium low-vol was heard done
    at around $148/mt CFR east China.
    Premium mid-vol HCC was offered at around $148/mt
    CFR China, and at around $140/mt FOB to buyers outside
    China, sources reported.
    On PCI, buyer interest could be seen repeatedly as high as
    $121-122/mt CFR China for Australian 13% VM, 9-9.5% ash,
    despite a deal done this week a touch lower.
    “PCI demand is strongest [among met coals] in terms of
    demand from mills, because it correlates with coke, and coke
    went up Yuan 30/mt recently,” a Hong Kong trader explained.
    Meanwhile, a relatively high offer Russian 12% VM and
    12% ash was reported at $125/mt CFR China. This was for a
    5,000 mt cargo scheduled for mid-August laycan.
    BMA offers September $1/mt higher
    Elsewhere, BHP Billiton-Mitsubishi Alliance has offered
    September loadings to its term customers $1/mt higher than
    August prices, several Asia-Pacific buyers said Thursday.
    Depending mostly on the timing of the deals, August
    prices had been heard settled at $139-141/mt FOB for prime
    low-vols Peak Downs and Saraji, and $136-138/mt FOB for
    premium mid-vols Goonyella and Illawara.
    A BHP Billiton spokeswoman in

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Again, if I had the money to do a Convertible Preferred transaction ...I would expect that it would immediately be very profitable.

    25 million +++ shorts ... could mean $500 million in profit for the funding source .. Strike at 15 and the stock jumps to $35 in short order as the relationship Banks lend longer term at better rates....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Berkshire could easily put a few hundred million in with very little risk as if they were big shareholders all the Banks would want to extend the $2 billion of loans at better terms !
    Similar to the one they did for the Vampire Squid in 2009

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • so if Walter Energy is bought out at $30 /share then the shorts could lose $500 million ! Ditto

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • this may just be MMs trying to short against the earnings... We will see...

    Walter Energy spikes on rumor of Goldman involvement
    Walter Energy (WLT +3.6%) spikes on chatter that it has hired Goldman Sachs to advise on a potential sale; WLT has been rumored to be talking to the firm about a potential refinancing of its debt. (Briefing. c.m

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • blackboxfund by blackboxfund Jul 31, 2013 10:10 AM Flag

    Less than 160k shares of supply were found on that 5 minute push up to $11.40. The shares should move much higher today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AMGN
140.08-0.38(-0.27%)11:20 AMEDT

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