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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

blackboxfund 506 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 5, 2013 4:57 PM Member since: May 8, 2012
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  • We are all blown away by today ...WLT Management included ... They get the problem and I back them with Big Time money...
    So SAC Capital problems and Moodys downgrades beeeeeee DAMMMMMMED

    As Covelle said there is a buyer and a seller .... and the naked shorts that counterfeit the WLT stock

    What they cannot change are the Coal assets in the ground and the value that even the Canadian mines will have when the
    the water runs dry in China !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • No more stock analyst price cuts and balance sheet liquidity scare tactics will work...The last line is meaningful for WLT...

    ATLANTIC MET COAL: Low-vol stable as US miners cite good shipments

    London (Platts)--22Jul2013/425 pm EDT/2025 GMT

    Atlantic low-vol coking coal prices were steady Monday, with some buyers acknowledging stable conditions as miners cautiously banked on later price increases based on US production cuts and tighter spot availability.

    Despite low prices, there are plenty of inquiries, said a source at a US miner.

    Prices at current levels could be stomached for no more than a couple of quarters, a source said.

    "Volume is still there, mainly through contracts. Prices aren't fantastic," a mining executive said.

    Platts assessed US low-vol hard coking coal steady Monday at $132.50/mt FOB USEC. Spot prices for US high-vol A were assessed at $126/mt FOB USEC, down $1 given low demand for better quality high-vols heard. High-vol B stayed at $115/mt FOB USEC.

    Another mining marketer felt the global market was firming, citing tighter supply availability and vessel rates in Asia-Pacific, which boded well for remaining Q3 contract accords.

    There was no significant letup on US contract volumes over any increasing share of Australian coals into the Atlantic market, based on his observations.

    A senior buyer at a European mill said there was not enough change to warrant an increase in prices. Considering mining and shipping costs he said the market had bottomed and prices would be stable for now.

    Alabama-based metallurgical coals were getting prices on quarterly contracts very close to the $145/mt FOB Q3 benchmark in Asia, and this gap had narrowed since previous quarters, one supply-side source said.

  • The company may be able to avoid cash burn over the next few quarters by managing its cost structure and reducing high inventories in western Canada, but fundamentally an improvement in pricing is necessary to avoid cash burn.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • they have alot of their networth tied up in WLT stock, so it is almost a guarantee that they would sell out at a reasonable price before any real liquidity issues are seen by outsiders

    They bought themselves some reasonable time to explore many options, irrespective of todays Moodys downgrade comments or even what the price of Met coal does in the short run

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As far as I can see from my reading alot of major good news has been tending toward the positive for Coal pricing
    I wish I knew why an analyst would cut a price target from 13 to 6 after all of his peers had done so more than a month ago ?

  • Shares of Walter Energy (NYSE: WLT) are getting pummeled early Wednesday as some on the Street voice liquidity concerns after the company cut its dividend to meet covenant terms of its revised credit agreement for Term Loans A & B. Others view the cut as positive, giving the company breathing room so the covenants will not be breached.

    "We view this positively, as it helps ease investor concerns around its balance sheet risks and FCF profile in the face of a continued met market headwinds and will free up $31mn in capital," Nomura Securities analyst Curt Woodworth comments. "We believe WLT has leeway to reduce capital spending by ~$40-50mn, given the company can still operate effectively at $120-130mn in capital spending, in our view."

    The firm maintained a Neutral rating and price target of $13. The firm cut FY13E EPS from ($2.65) to ($3.15); FY14E EPS at ($1.30).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They need to say they are revisiting the debt refinance ASAP...Of course it does not helpat all that the other coal names are all down big today..

    Wednesday, July 24, 9:59 AM ET
    Walter Energy (WLT -10.6%) shares plummet after last night's 92% dividend cut and subsequent analyst price target changes. CLSA thinks WLT could face "serious liquidity issues," and cuts its PT to a Street-low $6 with a Sell rating. BAML cuts its target to $9, believing the dividend cut was done in lieu of a credit deal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This Bloomberg article is worth reading ... if you are long Coal stocks.... I am going to call my Chinese Banking friends because of this macro and unsustainable problem.

    The Chinese will want every thermal and met ton and then some ... and the India demand will only add to the price war... Now we must pray for just another day of dry spell in Shanxi and the Gobi Desert

    Coal from anywhere outside of China and Mongolia will be highly bid for again ! No wonder the BIG guys are expanding capacity in

    from Bloomberg........................................................................................
    A woman carries a kettle of drinking water on her way home in Weinan, Shaanxi province. Shaanxi and Inner “Water shortages will severely limit thermal power capacity additions,” said Charles Yonts, head of sustainable research at brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Hong Kong. “You can’t reconcile targets for coal production in, say, Shanxi province and Inner Mongolia with their water targets.”

    Coal industries and power stations use as much as 17 percent of China’s water, and almost all of the collieries are in the vast energy basin in the north that is also one of the country’s driest regions. By 2020 the government plans to boost coal-fired power by twice the total generating capacity of India.

    About half of China’s rivers have dried up since 1990 and those that remain are mostly contaminated. Without enough water, coal can’t be mined, new power stations can’t run and the economy can’t grow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 2Q production cash costs and volumes were pos and the shipping delays is simply timing - comments Citi
    copied from the "StockTwits" board

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • While at the same time the overhang in seaborne supply represents follow through from projects that were initiated in recent years, when prices were higher and projections of demand greater. Still, we’ve seen favorable changes to both the supply and demand picture globally, and we do not believe that current prices are sustainable in the long-term.

    I don’t think these prices are sustainable in the long-term. And particularly when you start to look at project capital there is no longer in play right now. When this thing starts to turn there is just not new capacity coming into this market for three, four, five year period of time, because all these projects have been canceled.

    We expect seaborne thermal coal demand to increase from 50 million tons in 2013, the fuel existing plants as well as the approximately 75 gigawatts of new generation that started up during the year. Metallurgical coal demand is also increasing with Chinese and Indian met coal imports expected to raise 10% this year.

    Now in regards to global coal supplies, output reductions are occurring in the two largest coal producing nations, China and the United States. Industry reports note that some 45% of the Shanxi producers are unprofitable at current prices.

    U.S. coal exports declined 30% in June as contracts continue to roll off. The Indonesian government is again discussing steps to limit coal exports and increase domestic use. Mongolian export to China, remain below prior year levels. In longer-term the lag effect of reduced project capital may setup our sharp rebound when demand accelerates, that is the historic trend that often follows periods of significant under investment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You know like a Hemorrhoid will strike the Earth and the world will be covered in complete darkness and the billions of poor people will then have to stop using Coal when they make heat and electricity and Steel ..

    .I am almost sure we won't have to answer to our Prime Broker when they ask us if we really borrowed the WLT shares I shorted... If it goes lower from here..

    I think I will wait until he ll freezes over to cover this POS...No, maybei will cover only if it closes above $25, anyway I'm a bigtime money manager and a small mistake won't get me fired , ...because I am long Chipotle and Starbucks how can I lose?

    Right Boss, our Hedge Fund can take it, our Merrill guy said WLT is only worth $10 ratcheted down from $29 three weeks ago...
    Yeah let's short more Coal stocks OK? we all know coal is useless ... especially, when you need to see a por no on your I phone or Google where your next vacation should be, who needs coal mining stocks... No doubt in my mind Wlt is going down so we should short more ASAP... If there are any available to borrow anymore

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    But when Chicago goes the way of Detroit...then MAYBE HIS CRONIES WILL GET TO THE REALITY IN THE NEXT YEAR.... Wlt has what the U.S. needs but the U.S, cannot afford their Met Coal... because the USA is the most bankrupt of all !

    Does anyone know what the vote was?

  • Good Bye short seller money ...As we go up from here ...everyday now. From now on!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • or did it not yet go thru ?

  • So did I buy again today ... YES

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is BTU defining the Coal market news....and also I did not yet see the EPA appropriations vote so I am not with it completely

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I will be in LA Aug 7 th and driving back to Connecticut for 3 or 4 weeks

    email me aaat ed aaaat usaiia dooootttttte c ooooommmmmm

    ffffffffffing yahoo and their spam blocker

  • Now that the BIG guys BHP / Anglo see the bottom in their owned coal and iron assets ...

    they will seriously start to BUY up more production... Hence WLT is going to $66.66 soon ... Also,the WLT... Bankers can have more comfort with the restructuring deals as there is now much less Global Growth risk to factor in ...

    Give Goldman , etc..a couple of days to change their tune to touting the EM and mining stocks again, after they have sold out all of their discretionary accounts Coal positions down here at the bottom...
    and bought them all up into their prop book...!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Of course, I expect NG inventory drawdowns to accelerate for the rest of the summer...

    And, I am familiar with the depletion rates currently experienced in the well known NG fields in the U.S., having visited and funded coal and shale gas projects in Wyoming, South Dakota, West Virginia, Colorado, Texas and Louisiana in the early 2000's.

    Have you seen the Powder River Coal fields ? They are awesome...

    I do not think the frackin Natural Gas story has much more of the U.S. energy independence, tout left in it ...

    A quote from a Bloomberg, article from July 15 2013...
    "Decline Rates

    Wells drilled before 2012 in the top U.S. shale gas areas indicate an average field decline of 37 percent a year, according to data compiled by Hughes. That includes 47 percent in the Haynesville Shale, which includes part of Louisiana, and 29 percent in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale.

    Gas prices rose this year to more than $4 per million Btu before subsiding to a current level of about $3.60. As lower-quality wells raise the cost of production and tighten supplies, gas may rise to $6.50 in 2018 and to $8 or more in 2022, with spikes into double-digit prices possible within five years, Hughes says. Powers, the author, also said gas prices may surge into the double digits in the future.

    Jeremy Grantham, who co-founded global investment manager GMO LLC, is another sharing that bullish view, estimating in an April report that gas prices may triple from last year’s low in five years, to about $6 or $7."

    I have placed sovereign trade finance loans with GMO in the mid 1990's and really respect the money mangement work they do...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

153.26-1.73(-1.12%)Jul 2 4:00 PMEDT