streetinsider has 3 more analyst downgrades on KSU that are not on yahoo .
Buckingham Research , , Bank of America and Stephens .
High target also much different at a high of $107 from BMO a low of $74 from Goldman
A buyout ? Mexican momentum will only be there if demand is growing . Where does the demand come from , those on food stamps ?
No analyst within the last 2 year rates KSU as a buy but there are many sells and holds and their average target is more than $30 below KSU's present stock price
So far they have sold in small quantities 131 K wait until those 10.5 M in T Rowe Price or Vanguard's 7M shares are sold .
When anyone of those funds exits look out below you momentum speculators .
Compare streetinsider ratings with yahoo . there are 3 sells 9 neutrals and only 1 buy compared to yahoo 3 strong buys and 5 buys on yahoo .
Those strong buys and buys must be very old ones because neither yahoo or streetinsider have had a buy rating since sept 2011
What Faith in the FED's abilities .
Bernanke took office replacing Greenspan who had already created a stock bubble which collapsed .
Now Bernanke after creating 2 bubbles a housing bubble and a stock bubble suddenly knows what he is doing ??
When it falls to the $145 lvel it will not find much support until it reaches $130 where it traded for almost a year , the $140 are was just a quick transition
IBM has after deducting its cash of $12B a total of $26B in debt . Its dividend pays 2%.
MSFT after deducting its total debt has $63B in cash , its dividend pays 2.4%..
Here is a difficult question .
Which of the two has a more secure dividend ?
compare Price to book ratio IBM = 9.79 , MSFT = 3.63 .
IBM is so overvalued even the most novice investor should recognize it.
Wall st speculators have got PE on the brain .
At this juncture of the stockmarket PE is meaningless for a number of reasons .
1. Fancy accounting is one main reason , using non GAAP methods companies can hide their real results very easily through tax loopholes that come back to bite them later .
2. Shrinkiing sales can decimate earnings
3. Book value , Buffets favourite measure is much more useful IBM is almost 10 times its book value , that is extremely expensive by normal standards . Using that alone IBM's stock could fall in half and still be expensive
4. Huge debt to the tune of $36B ..
how long have you been investing ?
A strange as may sound to the ears of a novice investor / speculator when the whole of wall st from traders to analysts to economist are so complacent that they feel the market can not go down , it will collapse .
That complacency has always been so at the top of a bubble .
Wonder how IBM can keep its earnings from crashing besides its share buy backs ?
Nearly every country where IBM operates has some similar tax problem with IBM .
What happens when the taxes from intervening years are examined ?
2 downgrades last month
All the hype on KSU is based on the trade with Mexico , particularly their auto business from the those new plants expected in a year or two . That is the reason why KSU has a PS ratio almost 3 times as high as NSC and CTX two other railroads
Even UNP is much lower at 3.25 times sales . One look at UNP\'s chart tells me that PS is going to get a lot smaller very soon ..
The 10 year chart shows that KSU with its 1,000 % climb since 2009 is far more dangerous looking than Salesforce a fast growing tech in the Cloud business
I see another huge problem with KSU's scenario because the recent buying binge on new cars is about to collapse because we have the same symptoms we had in 2008 . Huge disounts so that auto companies can clear their inventory .Remember Bernanke has created his second bubble in just 7 years since taking office and it is all a mirage of growth because he still cannot stop his ponzi scheme even though he admits it hasn't worked
If you want yet another reason take a look at what analysts say and I am not referring to the foolish analysts .Their average target is $87 and there is only one buy and 3 sells , highest target $107 lowest $74 goldman sachs .
Larry Fink of Blackrock who oversees more assets than Bernanke at $4.2 Trillion will give her fits .
Not if you compare its price to sales ratio with other companies .
AMZN PS ratio is only 2.34 compared to railroad companies such as Kansas City southern which has a PS ratio of 5.86 .or UNP at 3.25.
Or how about Netflix at 4.49 ?
All that AMZN has to do is increase its profit margins from a ridiculously low 0.19% and its profit could rocket higher . Disclosure I have no AMZN holding and no short position
Don't believe me ?
Using one of the most important measuring sticks price to sales ratio .NFLX = 4.49 , KSU = 5.83
I fell for that kind of nonsense 13 years ago at the top of the first bubble in stocks .
I lost big time as reasult .
Here we are again and the same old ponzi scheme looking for more suckers to buy a stock at moire than double its real value .
That's what happens when you put a saleswoman in charge of a Tech company .
The Watsons were the guys that built up the company with their vision . Sales people milk the profit dry .
Investors who in their imagination justified IBM as a value proposition because of a 2.10% yield have just lost 3 years worth of dividends
IBM has a long way to fall to meet its book value which is the level Buffet would normally consider buying a stock ....$16,21.
Its Tangible book value ?
Minus $12 per share
Using PEs which US corporations can "adjust" by excluding important charges is a fools way of evaluating a company .
QE infinity supported the Dow's rise of 3.187 points since last November .
Since the beginning of may the 10 year treasury yield has risen by 77% as is now just under 3% the same reading as july 2011 just before the Dow collapsed 2300 points to 10,404 in november 2011.
This rapid rise should tell anyone who is not a Wall st Zombie that Bernanke has totally lost any control he ever had of real interest rates .
All of which means that we have the 30 stocks in the DWI which have flat to decreasing revenue at levels which had support at much lower interest rates but now are ready to correct to the much higher real interest rates .
The Dow one day circuit breakers are set at 10% , 20% and 30% .
Lets hope it just stops at 10% for a 1500 point drop and not the larger drops of 3,000 and 4500 .