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Seattle Genetics, Inc. Message Board

blackmenrock 564 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 26, 2012 5:57 PM Member since: Oct 9, 2009
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  • by blackmenrock Nov 26, 2012 5:57 PM Flag

    Nasdaq is late reporting but I believe it will show another decrease. If that's right it will be the 11th consecutive decrease in short interest. The high was 32ml 5 months ago. If lower it will mean 10ml shares covered.
    This hasn't been the short covering rally many expected but speaks volumes of market consensus on SGEN.
    Had it not been for that 10ml. shares bought the price would likely be closer to Cantor Fizgeralds target IMO so don't be too hard on her.

  • Reply to

    Volume Never Lie

    by frankposting Nov 26, 2012 4:37 PM blackmenrock Nov 26, 2012 5:16 PM Flag

    I forgot the MOST IMPORTANT thing
    Silenor works!
    It works as well as anything out there with a much better safety profile.
    In the right hands this could be a blockbuster.

  • Reply to

    Volume Never Lie

    by frankposting Nov 26, 2012 4:37 PM blackmenrock Nov 26, 2012 5:09 PM Flag

    I'm back in today after 1 1/2 years gone.
    Pascoe has done a good job of saving this.
    Reduced Operating expense by 2/3's... fired the worthless sales team.
    Did a deal in Korea
    Assured it's continued Nasdaq listing.
    Hired Stifel Nicolaus To look for strategic alternatives

    I think the irreparable damage augment is indisputable in the litigation you mentioned.
    Before that happens, there is this|

    "If Silenor is approved and commercialized in one or more of the licensed territories, most notably Canada, Somaxon will be eligible to receive sales-based milestone payments of up to $129 million US as well as tiered double-digit proceeds on net sales. According to Paladin's most recent earnings call, Paladin is expecting approval of Silenor by Health Canada in late 2012, and to launch the product in Canada in the first half of next year."

    This is the bottom.
    Just my worthless opinion. I've been wrong often

  • Reply to

    Already... Next generation ADC's

    by blackmenrock Nov 10, 2012 12:53 PM blackmenrock Nov 11, 2012 4:02 PM Flag

    Not just a dynamic advancement for SGEN but a new paradigm in the way cancer is viewed, defined and treated. Adcetris is not a lymphoma treatment. It is a CD30 malignancy treatment, an expression which may span many cancers.
    It is relatively toxin and side effect free, allowing for the potential of life long treatments.

    Patients will one day not dread and fear the worst word in the English language. Cancer!
    Coming is the time when a patient may get their treatment and return to work in the same day. All thanks to ADC's and the work being done here.

    Analysts may not be in love with SGEN's 2013 guidance but I can tell you that the best, smartest academic oncologists in this country LOVE Adcetris. That's where the rubber meets the road.

  • by blackmenrock Nov 10, 2012 12:53 PM Flag

    This opens the door to a whole new round of collaboration deals with far more favorable terms.
    SGEN has hit critical mass. Best on class. Protected from biosimular competition and the space that every biotech investor should want to have a part of.

    "This is an ADC targeted to CD33 that we will evaluate in acute myeloid leukemia. It employs our next-generation ADC technology, a new linker, a highly potent class of cytotoxic agent termed a PBD and a novel antibody incorporating our proprietary site-specific conjugation technology involving engineered cysteins, which we call an easy math. We expect to submit an IND for SGN-33 -- CD33A in the first half of 2013. We are very excited to bring our newest technology forward to apply this to a difficult to treat disease. "

  • Reply to

    SGEN conference call highlights - 3Q 2012

    by redhot47fla Nov 7, 2012 5:37 PM blackmenrock Nov 9, 2012 5:07 PM Flag

    I did not know of the sgn40 study. Thank you. I will look at that. I expected 40 to resurface as sgn45 as the naked antibody, like the 30, did not seem to have much anti-tumor activity. With SGEN's new linker and chemo 40 (or 45) could emerge as an excellent candidate in B-cell. Maybe better than the Roche 22 or 79. Let's hope.

  • Reply to

    SGEN conference call highlights - 3Q 2012

    by redhot47fla Nov 7, 2012 5:37 PM blackmenrock Nov 9, 2012 1:16 PM Flag

    Thank you Red You always do a great job surmising what's important.
    I can't figure why anyone would walk away from the CC with a sell? They must have been in a different meeting.
    Just the fact that it shows anti-tumor activity in 20-25% of DLBCL should have sent the stock soaring. This expands potential here by 300%. Those patients get r-chop now. With Roche advancing CD22 and CD79 with Rituxn in the DLBCL population should give people a hint that CD30 with R may be achievable before those drugs are approved. Sgen will have a part in all of those.
    100mil in milestones just in q4 seems to be overlooked entirely by those looking at the short term sales data. That 100mil makes free cash flow soar. All good news here.
    As for guidance. What did people expect. They have to keep guidance in line with the label. To do anything else would be wrong. They missed the 2013 potential for expansion and Canada is coming very soon.
    Also to hear multi billion used in reference to peak sales doubles previous estimates.
    My estimate which originally was 500mil peak sales 3years ago and 1bill early this year is now 2.5bil. and a 2018 share price of $200.

    I been wrong many times.

  • blackmenrock Nov 5, 2012 2:53 PM Flag

    I traded back GM for SGEN today. The trade netted about $5 bucks, so it worked out. I still like GM also.
    I plan to stick around now but I still think it may show some weakness mid year 2013, Hopefully from a higher level.
    Still believe $100+ is in SGEN future.

  • Reply to

    SGEN should buy IMGN

    by bioimmunomabman Nov 4, 2012 12:44 AM blackmenrock Nov 4, 2012 6:53 PM Flag

    Yes Yes Yes! Now is the time. I've often said the same thing.
    It would make Sgen the only game in town.
    Do it NOW!

  • Reply to

    Royalty math

    by slumdawg2011 Oct 26, 2012 7:17 PM blackmenrock Oct 29, 2012 11:55 PM Flag

    PDLI will likely also be getting 3% on the Heceptin portion of T-dm1 until their patent expires.
    On PDLI's investor presentation slides they claim that Roche has estimated peak T-DM1 sales at greater than 1bil. That appears far short of the 6bil Heceptin now enjoys. Either they like to give ultra conservative estimates or I've missed something. I have always assumed that T-DM1 would follow a similar track as Herceptin.
    Also, even as successful as Herceptin has been, they paid just 700k to collaborators (PDLI) the first year on the market.
    I'll just pass here for now. I don't get it yet.

  • Reply to

    Royalty math

    by slumdawg2011 Oct 26, 2012 7:17 PM blackmenrock Oct 29, 2012 3:19 PM Flag

    I don't know the exact figure. My guess is a simple extrapolation. Her2+ = 12% - 15% total breast cancer patients. 39,000 total per year relapse X 15% = 5800 + those living with relapse from prior years. Her2+ has a gerenerally higher relapse rate than Her2- for example.
    I'm sure my simple, lame, extrapolation does not produce a correct answer but may be in the park. It is just a guess and should not be used as anyone as correct.
    I'm just trying to figure a good entry point. My rule of thumb has always been: It takes about 300ml in rev. to justify 1bil in market cap. without pipeline consideration.

  • Reply to

    Royalty math

    by slumdawg2011 Oct 26, 2012 7:17 PM blackmenrock Oct 29, 2012 12:05 AM Flag

    I think your math is better than most analysts.
    My unbiased look. (Since I don't currently own)
    Based on a 6000 HER2+ relapse population plus those relaped patients still living from prior years, it could produce 750ml - 1bil with the current indication and pricing similar to SGEN. The floodgate could really open quickly if front-line approval comes late 2014 as planned.
    But, question. Is there no current screening test which identifies which HER2+ patients will benefit and those who will not.

  • Reply to


    by slumdawg2011 Oct 26, 2012 2:21 PM blackmenrock Oct 28, 2012 1:46 AM Flag

    Thanks. I'm sure your right about the 8 bucks being too low. This may indeed be the right time.
    Some Analysts are projecting just 300k in royalties the first year there. That seems about right to me. Herceptin's patent expires in 2014 so you'd think they would be wanting to get T-DM1 to front- line ASAP. I thought it would produce 250ml per year at peak. Now it looks like just half that. Maybe IMGN would be better off to just monetize the royalties and concentrate on their in-house candidates like SGEN.
    Thanks again

  • Reply to


    by slumdawg2011 Oct 26, 2012 2:21 PM blackmenrock Oct 27, 2012 10:14 PM Flag

    Hey Dawg. Hi
    I'm not currently invested over there but follow it closely. SGEN's newer royalty deals are more favorable than the IMGN/Roche deal. Older ones I think are about the same as IMGN's. Plus there are some outright 50/50 collaborations here. I think IMGN is toast for awhile. If it hit's $8 I think I'll get back in. They have more buyout potential.
    I'm slowly accumulating here. About 20% of where I'd like to be.
    What's your guess on what this will do on earnings?

  • blackmenrock Oct 26, 2012 10:26 PM Flag

    The truth is anybody and everybody can compete in this space.

  • blackmenrock Oct 25, 2012 11:03 PM Flag

    I sold today at $7.8. Maybe it will rise again in the coming days. But in the long run, I see it as game over.
    Maybe the radio fairness bill will pass, maybe not. Those in the know have given it just a 3% chance of passage. Even if it passes Pandora will have a tough job growing with an apple or Win8 icon on your device. This will devolve into managing the decline and hoping for a buyout.
    While I think that the radio fairness bill should be passed don't underestimate the influence of the artists, especially on democrats in the senate who will pit this as Wall Street shareholders vs poor starving artists.
    Just my worthless opinion

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Wealth management

    by mrfabulous_00 Oct 18, 2012 8:46 AM blackmenrock Oct 18, 2012 2:37 PM Flag

    I see USMI biz as the catalyst that will eventually move this above $10. Everyone has got it at zero like you. That's a positive, unless Shilling has it right. He again projected today another 20% price decline when the 1.5ml shadow inventor hits the market next summer. If he's right than USMI becomes something less than zero and we have years of pain ahead. I'm betting he's wrong this time.

  • by blackmenrock Oct 13, 2012 8:12 PM Flag

    2 points from SGEN Oct 1 press release below.

    The 13 patients were to get 2 cycles of Adcetris prior to beginning CHOP. From what is said, it appears that the CHOP may have prevented several from continuing (1 patient was in their 80's) and may have done more harm than good. Given this data a patient may have been better off to continue on the single-agent Adcetris IMO. I hope others will see it that way too.

    The 10 ALK- have a poorer prognosis than the 3 ALK+. Not included is the very telling NUC positive or negative which is more prognostic than the ALK. Maybe they will add that info in their next release.

    SGEN Oct 1
    "*Of the 13 evaluable patients on Arm 1 of the study, 100 percent achieved an objective response following the first two cycles of treatment with single-agent brentuximab vedotin, including five CRs and eight PRs

    *After eight cycles of sequential therapy, including two cycles of brentuximab vedotin followed by six cycles of CHOP, 11 patients had an objective response, including eight CRs and three PRs
    Objective responses were generally maintained in patients treated with single-agent brentuximab vedotin following CHOP, including seven of nine evaluable patients with CRs at Cycle 12 and five of five evaluable patients with CRs at Cycle "

  • by blackmenrock Oct 12, 2012 10:32 PM Flag

    Monroe should bid on the 28,000 acres of Oklahoma oil assets CHK is selling to complement the Trainer refinery. In for a dime in for a dollar.
    Those assets would shield DAL from Brent oil price spikes if Iran blows up and supply a source of cheap US oil, plus provide a future reserve ready to develop. The acreage has 113 producing wells. I've been a critic of DAL's down stream investment in Trainer. An up-stream investment in OK would make Trainer look brilliant IMO.

  • by blackmenrock Oct 11, 2012 8:47 PM Flag
    Gnw can write it's way to huge profits IF it just holds on to MI. You'd think Moody's would get it.

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