Forward guidance is crapola. Management has some serious explaining to do.
@@@@4:02 pm Align Tech misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (ALGN) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.48 per share, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.49; revenues rose 11.4% year/year to $198.6 mln vs the $197.53 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.29-0.32, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.45 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q1 revs of $187.3-192.4 mln vs. $200.97 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
I am not interested in selling. In fact, I look for good days to buy more NSRGY. My last buy was back in mid-October on a dip below 69.
I cancelled my other open order. Better to sit this out and let the panic sellers define the bottom before stepping in to buy. There is always a buyer at the right price, but.I don't think the BOD will be interested in any offer if the company can position itself to survive the downturn.
I pulled my 6.50 limit order. Kept my 5.50 order open though. Could 2.80 repeat? Now THAT would be crazy. Tomorrow will be very interesting.
There will always be cowboys, and there will always be cowboys that fall off their horse too many times and break too many bones to ever get back up on it to ride again. RIP Asian Cowboy.
I never said I was short. For the record, I am long with a much reduced position. When I see a true catalyst emerge, I will increase it.
Go ahead...keep all your money tied up in this stock and wait another 5-10 years for the coal recovery. But today's reality (and that of the last few years) is that coal prices have been steadily dropping. That is a simple fact, and coal companies' prospects will not improve until prices move up. A turnaround will NOT occur overnight. There will be plenty of time to detect the recovery and move into coal stocks to ride the uptrend.
And just to make sure we're all up to date... did you notice in the latest Q reports that several railroaders have noted flat volumes in coal shipments? NSX and CNI specifically stated that.
@@@@Event Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, CNI-N) reported Q4/14 EPS of $1.03, above the consensus estimate/our forecast of $0.97/$1.02. Impact: POSITIVE Revenue was up 17% y/y to a record $3.2bln, on an industry-leading volume increase of 9% (RTMs). Volume was up in all segments except coal, with double-digit growth in four of the seven segments.
Raised the target price but no change in rating.
@@@@@TD Investment Conclusion We see CN as a relatively high-quality, low-risk industrial stock. Our target price increases to $83.00 from $77.00 based on our earnings revisions and a 0.5x point increase in our target multiple. We are now valuing CN at 16.5x 2016 EPS vs. 16.0x previously. A 16.5x multiple is slightly above the high-end of the group’s historical trading range (16.1x), but we believe that CN will continue to attract a premium in the context of its strong leverage to strength in the domestic North American economy (vs. global economic uncertainty), and its strong earnings track record.
Oh wait... there it is.
@@@@Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, CNI-N) C$85.16 .... 11
HOLD (Unchanged);Target: C$83.00 (Prior: C$77.00)
Very Strong Q4/14 Earnings; 25% Dividend Increase
Canadian National Railway Co (CNR-T, CNI-N) C$85.16 Very Strong Q4/14 Earnings; 25% Dividend Increase
Event Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, CNI-N) reported Q4/14 EPS of $1.03, above the consensus estimate/our forecast of $0.97/$1.02.
Impact: POSITIVE Revenue was up 17% y/y to a record $3.2bln, on an industry-leading volume increase of 9% (RTMs). Volume was up in all segments except coal, with double-digit growth in four of the seven segments. Same-store pricing improved to 4%, up sequentially from “just over 3%” in Q3/14, and we expect that trend to gradually continue through 2015–2016 given that capacity has tightened for both trucking and rail. Operating income was up 30% y/y, EPS increased 36%, and the operating ratio came in at 60.7%, down 410bps. CN was candid that an easy prior-year comparable; a weaker Canadiandollar (added $0.06/share); the fuel surcharge lag; and lower stock-based compensation were contributing factors, but we consider the company’s core performance very impressive notwithstanding those tailwinds. CN raised its annual dividend by 25% to $1.25/share, and is now targeting a 35% payout ratio (from ~30%) such that we expect dividends to increase faster than EPS for a period of time. CN guided to “double-digit” 2015 EPS growth vs. 2014 adjusted EPS of $3.76, which implies EPS of $4.14 at the low-end (10% growth). We are comfortable with our forecast of $4.32 (consensus is $4.22) because we believe that CN has a well-established track record of guiding conservatively at the beginning of the year. We have left our 2015 EPS estimate unchanged in light of certain nearterm headwinds (pension expense, ~20% of revenue tied to WTI-based fuel surcharge programs), but have increased our 2016 forecast by ~5%.
It's not a proven bottom until it moves back up.
As far are the OP's question goes, I believe that the only way coal prices will ever begin a sustained uptrend is if decent growth resumes in ALL key regions of the world. Right now only China and USA have meaningful growth.. we need to see the EU, Japan, and the rest of the BRICS growing too. Only then will coal hit the road to recovery. Loss of mine production capacity in the interim will determine the ultimate rate of price recovery when full-fledged world economic growth finally resumes.
Hmmn just checked out the CYN website for details and saw this. I hope they can close sooner than that... the call options I bought expire in August.
@@@@Closing is expected before the end of calendar 2015 subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of required regulatory approvals and the approval of City National's stockholders.
CVE announced further cuts to capex today. From 3B to 2.6B back in Dec to 1.9B today. COS.TO will almost surely have to cut somewhere as well... and since their capex is fairly low already, I suspect we'll see another dividend cut announced at the earnings update tomorrow. I have a limit buy orders at ~6.5 and ~5.5.... cause ya never know how crazy it might get here.