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Deutsche Telekom AG Message Board

blackoutbuzz 661 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Apr 26, 2001
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  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 3 hours ago Flag

    I pulled my 6.50 limit order. Kept my 5.50 order open though. Could 2.80 repeat? Now THAT would be crazy. Tomorrow will be very interesting.

  • Reply to

    Where has the Asian Cowboy gone?

    by blackoutbuzz 3 hours ago
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 3 hours ago Flag

    There will always be cowboys, and there will always be cowboys that fall off their horse too many times and break too many bones to ever get back up on it to ride again. RIP Asian Cowboy.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 3 hours ago Flag

    I never said I was short. For the record, I am long with a much reduced position. When I see a true catalyst emerge, I will increase it.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 3 hours ago Flag

    hmmm what?

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 3 hours ago Flag

    It was a figure of speech. Nothing you've said refutes my point

  • aka Cadmium Telluride aka 'the preacher'.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 4 hours ago Flag

    Go ahead...keep all your money tied up in this stock and wait another 5-10 years for the coal recovery. But today's reality (and that of the last few years) is that coal prices have been steadily dropping. That is a simple fact, and coal companies' prospects will not improve until prices move up. A turnaround will NOT occur overnight. There will be plenty of time to detect the recovery and move into coal stocks to ride the uptrend.

    And just to make sure we're all up to date... did you notice in the latest Q reports that several railroaders have noted flat volumes in coal shipments? NSX and CNI specifically stated that.

    @@@@Event Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, CNI-N) reported Q4/14 EPS of $1.03, above the consensus estimate/our forecast of $0.97/$1.02. Impact: POSITIVE Revenue was up 17% y/y to a record $3.2bln, on an industry-leading volume increase of 9% (RTMs). Volume was up in all segments except coal, with double-digit growth in four of the seven segments.

  • Reply to

    No TD analyst update?

    by blackoutbuzz 4 hours ago
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 4 hours ago Flag

    Raised the target price but no change in rating.

    @@@@@TD Investment Conclusion We see CN as a relatively high-quality, low-risk industrial stock. Our target price increases to $83.00 from $77.00 based on our earnings revisions and a 0.5x point increase in our target multiple. We are now valuing CN at 16.5x 2016 EPS vs. 16.0x previously. A 16.5x multiple is slightly above the high-end of the group’s historical trading range (16.1x), but we believe that CN will continue to attract a premium in the context of its strong leverage to strength in the domestic North American economy (vs. global economic uncertainty), and its strong earnings track record.

  • Reply to

    No TD analyst update?

    by blackoutbuzz 4 hours ago
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 4 hours ago Flag

    Oh wait... there it is.

    @@@@Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, CNI-N) C$85.16 .... 11
    HOLD  (Unchanged);Target: C$83.00  (Prior: C$77.00)
    Very Strong Q4/14 Earnings; 25% Dividend Increase

    Canadian National Railway Co (CNR-T, CNI-N) C$85.16 Very Strong Q4/14 Earnings; 25% Dividend Increase

    Event Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T, CNI-N) reported Q4/14 EPS of $1.03, above the consensus estimate/our forecast of $0.97/$1.02.

    Impact: POSITIVE Revenue was up 17% y/y to a record $3.2bln, on an industry-leading volume increase of 9% (RTMs). Volume was up in all segments except coal, with double-digit growth in four of the seven segments.  Same-store pricing improved to 4%, up sequentially from “just over 3%” in Q3/14, and we expect that trend to gradually continue through 2015–2016 given that capacity has tightened for both trucking and rail. Operating income was up 30% y/y, EPS increased 36%, and the operating ratio came in at 60.7%, down 410bps. CN was candid that an easy prior-year comparable; a weaker Canadiandollar (added $0.06/share); the fuel surcharge lag; and lower stock-based compensation were contributing factors, but we consider the company’s core performance very impressive notwithstanding those tailwinds. CN raised its annual dividend by 25% to $1.25/share, and is now targeting a 35% payout ratio (from ~30%) such that we expect dividends to increase faster than EPS for a period of time. CN guided to “double-digit” 2015 EPS growth vs. 2014 adjusted EPS of $3.76, which implies EPS of $4.14 at the low-end (10% growth). We are comfortable with our forecast of $4.32 (consensus is $4.22) because we believe that CN has a well-established track record of guiding conservatively at the beginning of the year. We have left our 2015 EPS estimate unchanged in light of certain nearterm headwinds (pension expense, ~20% of revenue tied to WTI-based fuel surcharge programs), but have increased our 2016 forecast by ~5%.

  • Usually he's out the next day with a report. Looks like the guy's calculator is broken or his spreadsheet program can't accept some of the guidance data CNR.TO issued.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 17 hours ago Flag

    It's not a proven bottom until it moves back up.

    As far are the OP's question goes, I believe that the only way coal prices will ever begin a sustained uptrend is if decent growth resumes in ALL key regions of the world. Right now only China and USA have meaningful growth.. we need to see the EU, Japan, and the rest of the BRICS growing too. Only then will coal hit the road to recovery. Loss of mine production capacity in the interim will determine the ultimate rate of price recovery when full-fledged world economic growth finally resumes.

  • Reply to

    $93.80 Buyout

    by freshbone1 Jan 22, 2015 10:51 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Jan 28, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Hmmn just checked out the CYN website for details and saw this. I hope they can close sooner than that... the call options I bought expire in August.

    @@@@Closing is expected before the end of calendar 2015 subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of required regulatory approvals and the approval of City National's stockholders.

  • Reply to

    Portfolio blow out to 6.51 today

    by madtrader666 Jan 28, 2015 9:46 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Jan 28, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    I'm holding out for 6.33 to buy in.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Jan 28, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    CVE announced further cuts to capex today. From 3B to 2.6B back in Dec to 1.9B today. COS.TO will almost surely have to cut somewhere as well... and since their capex is fairly low already, I suspect we'll see another dividend cut announced at the earnings update tomorrow. I have a limit buy orders at ~6.5 and ~5.5.... cause ya never know how crazy it might get here.

  • Reply to

    OLED vs. CREE

    by foxconnman Jan 26, 2015 9:58 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Jan 28, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    ----It would not surprise me if Cree will also use mid power LEDs from Lextar for this product line making optimal use of the high power production in NC for commercial lighting ----

    How does removing mid-power chips from production in NC make optimal use of the wafer fab there? The fab was not running at full capacity (otherwise they would have announced expansions), so taking any products off the line will mean the fab utilization rate will drop. That is the exact opposite of how fabs are normally operated. ie. the high fixed cost of such facilities means you want to fill the line and run as close as possible to full capacity..

  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz Jan 28, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    There it is and the stock is getting a nice pop again today. I can only imagine the pop when the FTC approves the deal.

    @@@@Jan 28 (Reuters) - #$%$ cigarettes maker Reynolds American Inc's shareholders approved its $25 billion acquisition of smaller rival Lorillard Inc. The proposed deal, which was announced last July, has attracted intense antitrust scrutiny as it seeks to combine the No.2 and No.3 U.S. cigarette makers. About 451 million of Reynolds' outstanding shares were voted in favor of the proposal to issue stock to Lorillard shareholders for the acquisition.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Jan 28, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    Dude, this stock has bled slowly since Sept and after the drop today on earnings it's down ~25%. I'm not short, but if I was, the only thing I'd be watching out for is more profits. The company guided down, and is buying back shares mostly to keep dilution from employee share incentives at bay.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Jan 28, 2015 12:09 AM Flag

    I'm simply stating what the railroad companies issued as guidance, and the traffic data reported by the American Association of Railroads. Sorry if your personal model' of the economy doesn't match that.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Jan 27, 2015 11:56 PM Flag

    UPS warned on Q4 because they made a strategic error, not because business was bad. And why do you think railroaders face a 'day of reckoning'? Traffic so far in 2015 is up over 2014, and guidance is for mid-high single digit growth or better from what I've seen.

    @@@@While they nailed on-time deliveries during the 2014 Christmas season, on less busy days many workers and trucks were left idle. The drop in productivity and the extra expenses for training and overtime dragged UPS's 2014 preliminary earnings well below forecasts, the company said today, sending its stock down the most in more than eight years. "UPS invested heavily to ensure we would provide excellent service during peak when deliveries more than double," said David Abney, UPS chief executive officer. "Though customers enjoyed high quality service, it came at a cost to UPS. Going forward, we will reduce operating costs and implement new pricing strategies during peak season."

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Jan 27, 2015 11:23 PM Flag

    ---Earnings season has been LOUSY so far, the only real bright spot has been AAPL, but one company cannot save the entire market---

    I guess you do';t follow the transports too closely huh. The railroaders are reporting decent growth in revenues and earnings... CSX, CP, UNP, and today CNI. Only NSX lagged with flat yoy results.

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