Tell that to Moody's
@@@New York, February 27, 2015 -- Moody's today downgraded the ratings of Peabody Energy Corporation (Peabody), including its Corporate Family Rating (CFR) to B2 from Ba3, probability of default rating (PDR) to B2-PD from Ba3-PD, senior secured credit facility rating to Ba3 from Ba2, senior unsecured rating to B3 from Ba3, and the rating on junior subordinated debentures to Caa1 from B2. The company's Speculative Grade Liquidity rating is affirmed at SGL-2. The ratings outlook is negative.RATINGS RATIONALE The downgrade reflects recent deterioration in performance as a result of weak market conditions and our expectation that meaningful recovery is unlikely over the next eighteen months. The company's Debt/ EBITDA, as adjusted, approached 7x in 2014, and we anticipate further deterioration in earnings in 2015. The company's credit profile has been especially impacted by the weak performance of the Australian division as a result of challenging metallurgical coal markets. Although the company's met coal operations continue to benefit from advantageous exchange rates, proximity to key markets in Asia and favorable cost position relative to the US peers, they are unable to generate meaningful EBITDA at current price levels. The negative outlook reflects our expectation that metallurgical coal markets will remain weak over the next eighteen months, with increasing risks to the downside, while the company's Debt/ EBITDA, as adjusted, will continue to track above 7x. A ratings upgrade is unlikely but would be considered if Debt/ EBITDA were to approach 5x, with neutral to mildly positive free cash flows. A further downgrade would be considered if liquidity deteriorated, free cash flows were persistently negative, and/or Debt/ EBITDA exceeded 7x on a sustained basis
Really? I could sworn it was a lot sooner than that ten years ago.
I still have not seen any news out on the Konica-Minolta roll2roll oled lighting fab that was supposed to start volume production by end of 2014. I wonder what the hold up is...
Notice how FE is desperately trying to hold this level? That is the current 50 week SMA line. Don't worry... when the NJ BPU issues their ruling (as soon as March) the stock price will break down through that line. Don't hate the player, hate the game.
@@@@The state Division of Rate Counsel has endorsed a decision by an administrative law court judge to order a $107 million reduction in annual revenues for Jersey Central Power & Light. And the agency wants further reductions that could mean even lower bills for JCP&L customers.The case, originally brought by rate counsel alleged that the utility was earning more than state regulators had approved, has dragged on for more than three years. The administrative law court’s recommendation could be approved, modified, or rejected by the state Board of Public Utilities as early as next month.
And that begs the question... what happened to the growth story? Wait let me guess... 2016 yeah that's the ticket...
seriously, what the hellla is up with the minute by minute Reuters 'news' releases?
Interesting... If the FTC issued a positive ruling before expiry, the discount between LO and RAI associated with risk arbitrage would disappear. That gap is ~6% or ~$4 potential upside to LO stock price, which is a lot more than the dividend amount.
But the stock is holding up nicely
@@@@@Pembina Pipeline Cuts Q4 Profit; Blames Midstream Business, Costs 06:45 AM EST, 02/27/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Pembina Pipeline (PBA), provider of oil and gas transportation services, Thursday after market hours reported lower earnings for Q4 ended December 31 due mainly to reduced gross profit in its midstream business and higher taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The firm said net profit was C$84 million, or C$0.22 per diluted share, a decline from last year's C$95 million, or C$0.29 per diluted share. This was after generating revenues of C$1.3 billion, essentially unchanged from the previous year, and net revenues of C$304 million, down 20% year-over-year on the heels of the continuous drop in commodity prices. Operating expenses also weighed on earnings after rising to C$117 million from C$101 million a year earlier due to new in-service assets
Ahoy, there's a treasure buried there maties
@@@@@(TSX: MBT) Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. ("MTS Allstream" or the "Company") will announce the refreshed strategy resulting from its top-to-bottom strategic review on Thursday, May 7, 2015. "We are making good progress in our review and uncovering the hidden gems within the organization," said Jay Forbes, Chief Executive Officer. "We are a great organization that has not met its full potential, and I look forward to sharing our refreshed strategic plans with all our stakeholders in May."
I have no problem with inventory builds, but I do sure have a problem with a $3.9M inventory writedown. With each quarter that passes, I am growing increasingly skeptical of management's ability to negotiate sales contracts.
Yes, if you hold LO shares when the deal closes, the price of RAI ultimately determines the value of your shares. And yes, absolutely LO is tracking RAI and will continue to do so.
But in addition to all that, an arbitrage spread currently exists to factor in the risk that the deal fails to go through. Today, based on the closing prices of RAI=75.63 and LO=68.48 that spread amounts to (0.2909*75.63+50.50)-68.48=4.02, or 5.9% of LO price
The day the FTC issues approval, that spread will instantly vanish - the prices of RAI and LO will adjust to exactly match up to the formula and then trade in lockstep until the transaction officially closes. That 'one-shot' adjustment is what I'm am referring to and wondering about. If the FTC approved the deal tonight, how do you think the stock prices would react tomorrow to close the arb spread?
I just took a quick look at FY14 financials. At the current burn rate, these guys can continue on for AT LEAST THREE MORE YEARS. Makes me wonder Loony... will you even live to see the glorious day AIXG finally dies?
Sid should do like CLF's CEO did at an earnings call a while back
@@@@Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of the mining and natural resources company Cliffs Natural, doesn't take questions from haters. On Cliffs' earnings conference call on Tuesday morning, Goncalves told Wells Fargo analyst Sam Dubinsky that he wouldn't answer Dubinsky's questions because "you already know everything about my company."
Sure, the stock prices can move to reflect a new valuation on the combined entity now vs. when the deal was announced and any change in the perceived risk of the deal closing, but on a positive FTC ruling any arb spread will be driven to zero by traders.
If for example
- RAI is 100 then LO will trade at 79.59 (50.50+0.2909*100).
- RAI is 50 then LO will trade at 65.04 (50.50+0.2909*50)
Otherwise arbitrage plays would exist even after a positive FTC ruling, right to the very end... are you saying they will??
That 'cusp' seems more like a desert plain... but wait.... what is that I see on the horizon? An oasis... or just another mirage.
BTI will own a big chunk (42%) of RAI-LO. But BTI is trading lower than it was when the deal was announced whereas RAI is up significantly from that time. Maybe a good move here is to sell RAI and buy BTI? I've been meaning to invest in an international tobacco play, and I am starting to think that perhaps BTI (or even ITYBY) is a better play than PM due to the bonus of exposure to US market. Hmmm decisions, decisions....