I doubt OVPD will ever dominate in the space. OLED solution-based processing (aka inkjet deposition) is more likely to be the long-term replacement to VTE.
Also, my calculations a few years ago indicated that MOCVD tool demand would never see any huge growth again. I posted it on the VECO board.... search "Where is the bear case for VECO or LED Business?" . Maybe you could go over the calculations I made back then and let me know if it was flawed? No one else refuted it back then...
Reply to Where is the bear case for VECO or LED Business? by pqrs6969 •Nov 17, 2011 2:57 PM
blackoutbuzz • Nov 17, 2011 3:12 PM Remove
Huh??? I just posted the bear case. Here it is again for you since you obviously missed it. Or are you simply a cheerleader who chooses to ignore the data?
Here's a rough calculation to gain some perspective on the MOCVD tool market size.
Production output of 1 MOCVD tool:
chips/run = 2000*55*0.8 = 88000
runs/yr = (24*7*52*0.75)/6 = 1092
chips/yr = 88000*1092 = 96.1E06
chips/LEDbulb = 10
LEDbulbs/yr = 9.61E06
So a single MOCVD tool can produce 9.61 million LEDbulbs per year.
world population 6.84E09
bulbs per residence 10
world installed # of bulbs = 68.4E09
# of tools needed to produce the entire installed base of bulbs in one year = 68.4E09 / 9.61E06 = 7118. If the adoption rate is 10% per year then only 711.8 tools are needed.
Likewise, since LED bulbs have a long lifespan, say on the order of 10 years, then those same 711.8 tools are needed to continually produce replacement LEDbulbs for the ENTIRE WORLD after the initial changeover to 100% LEDbulbs is complete.
Yes, I completely ignored commercial, municipal, and industrial markets, but still, I think this puts some perspective into the potential demand for MOCVD tools.
CONCLUSION: There is NO huge demand for tools. An installed base of ~700 tools can produce all residential LEDbulbs
@camecoisa17... Wishful thinking? You need a reality check. In USA 4 old plants have already closed, not because of safety issues, but because it's not economical to run them in view of upgrades needed to continue operating them versus revenues they generate from power sales.
@As another nuclear power plant closed this week, the United States faced a dwindling fleet of aging reactors, few new projects, and the challenge of safely mothballing radioactive fuel for decades. Almost all its nearly 100 remaining reactors will be more than 60 years old by 2050. Their owners will have to decide whether the investments needed to keep them running are worth it, given the influx of cheap natural gas that has reshaped the U.S. energy economy. So far, nuclear isn't winning. Vermont Yankee, which shut down Monday after 42 years of operation, is the fourth U.S. nuclear facility to close in two years. For the owners of each recent retiree—from Vermont Yankee to San Onofre in California, Kewaunee in Wisconsin, and Crystal River in Florida—the math just didn't work.
From the EIA website. Net imports are are 5 mmbbls/day. I checked the breakdown more closely and in fact roughly half of this is imported from Canada. Even taking that out, you get ~2.5mmbbls/day or roughly 1 VLCC tanker each day.. To me, that seems like a big deal.
@In 2014, about 27% of the petroleum consumed by the United States was imported from foreign countries,1 the lowest level since 1985. Petroleum includes crude oil and petroleum products. Petroleum products include gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, jet fuel, chemical feedstocks, asphalt, biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), and other products. In 2014, about 44% of the crude oil processed in U.S. refineries was imported.
@The United States imported approximately 9 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) of petroleum in 2014 from about 80 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, liquefied refinery gases, refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel. In 2014, about 80% of gross petroleum imports were crude oil, and about 44% of the crude oil that was processed in U.S. refineries was imported. The United States exported about 4 MMbbl/d of crude oil and petroleum products in 2014, resulting in net imports (imports minus exports) of about 5 MMbbl/d in 2014. Net imports accounted for 27% of the petroleum consumed in the United States, the lowest annual average since 1985. The top five source countries of U.S. petroleum imports in 2014 were Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Iraq. The country rankings vary based on gross petroleum imports or net petroleum imports (gross imports minus exports).
---Producing more oil in the US hurts our rental business because it will mean less imports. But we don't import much so it's not a big deal.---
The USA imports roughly a quarter of their total oil consumption. You don't think that's a significant amount? Sure, about a third of the total imported oil is from Canada and shipped via pipelines and rail, but the remainder is delivered here via tankers.
Don't be so quick to make a decision. Consider that SHPG has an excellent performance record, and since they are based in the UK and thus subject to lower taxation rates, SHPG will squeeze out the maximum profits from BXLT assets, which will benefit all concerned..
True, but my point was that the plan may expedite the shutdown of six 'at-risk' older plants in the USA, and since it would take several years or longer to build out new plants, net USA demand for uranium would drop in the interim.
So what we have here by SHPG is a hostile takeover attempt for BXLT. Might be difficult to get this deal done without bumping up the offer price.
@08/04/2015 | 08:34am US/Eastern NEW YORK — Irish drugmaker Shire PLC Is offering to buy Baxalta Inc. for about $30 billion in stock in a move to solidify its position in rare disease treatments. Deerfield, Illinois-based Baxalta was spun off of Baxter International Inc. in July and focuses on bleeding disorders. Dublin-based Shire makes treatments for a range of conditions including attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, epilepsy and hunter syndrome. In a statement, Shire urged Baxalta to engage in negotiations. It made the offer to the company on July 10 and said the offer implies a value of $45.23 per share, a 36 per cent premium for Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta rose more than 20 per cent to $40.10 in premarketing trading. Shire's stock fell nearly 3 per cent to $260.92.
Uh, you failed to consider the two companies' respective Market Cap and Enterprise Value. If anything, it'll be PM buying MO, not the other way around.
ANR is officially dead. Next up... ACI.
@Alpha Natural Resources Inc. filed for bankruptcy in Virginia Monday, becoming the latest victim of the coal industry’s worst downturn in decades.
From what I've just read, nuclear generation stands to lose ground in the final plan announced today.
@The final version of President Obama’s Clean Power Plan does not include aid to existing nuclear power plants at risk of closing because they can’t compete with cheaper natural gas and renewables—a list that includes some of the nation’s most controversial reactors, including Indian Point and Three Mile Island. In the draft version, EPA had proposed allowing states to count 6 percent of existing nuclear generation toward their clean energy goals, a provision designed to rescue the 6 percent of nuclear capacity considered at risk. “On further consideration, we believe it is inappropriate to base the BSER (Best System of Emission Reduction) on elements that will not reduce CO2 emissions from affected electric generating units below current levels,” EPA states in the final rule. The nuclear industry had campaigned for stronger support for nuclear power in the Clean Power Plan. American Nuclear Society President Brady Raap argued that the draft rule ”almost completely discounts the clean energy contributions of current nuclear energy facilities, while penalizing states that have new plants under construction.” ANS took it as a good sign when EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said EPA would reconsider the rule’s treatment of nuclear.
Why would growth in alternative energy (wind and solar and even natgas) displace oil demand? The two serve non-overlapping end markets. The former feeds the electricity grid. The latter is utilized to power transportation and in various materials (building, plastics, roadways, etc.) In the USA, oil-fired electricity generation is negligible. Furthermore, electric-powered transport will take decades to meaningfully displace internal combustion engines.
And in regards to the inefficiencies of the existing oil-based energy infrastructure, this will not change. The industry has spent huge sums to build out refinery complexes, storage facilities, port and rail terminals, pipeline and rail networks, and related transport to distribute distillates to end-users. It is naive at best to think that this infrastructure will ever be shut down and re-located. Big cities will not move closer to oil fields. Refineries and related storage facilities will not move closer to oilfields. A few refineries may reconfigure to process a different grade of oil. Most will choose to simply source the oil grades they are designed to process from whatever sources are the cheapest and most reliable, and focus investments on expansion of their existing production capacity instead.
I think I found the answer. EMC will be the buyer.
@@Elliott Management is pressuring EMC to spin off its stake in VMware; but EMC chief executive Joe Tucci may do just the opposite. Talk about contrarian. For months EMC EMC chief executive Joe Tucci has resisted pressure from Elliott Management to sell EMC’s majority stake in VMware VMW . Now, with a stand-still agreement between EMC and Elliott set to expire next month, EMC is reportedly eying a slightly different plan of action: It may just buy up the part of VMware it does not already own, according to Re/Code.
SHPG is delving further into the eyecare market space.
@Shire has strengthened its move into eyecare with the $300m acquisition of a US company developing a treatment for conjunctivitis. The UK-listed, Dublin-based drugmaker said the all-cash deal for privately held Foresight Biotherapeutics would give it access to potentially the first medicine for viral and bacterial forms of the common eye infection. Shire has been stepping up investment in eyecare as it pushes for regulatory approval of its own lifitegrast treatment for dry-eye disease. “Ophthalmics is a highly attractive growth area for Shire and this acquisition allows us to strengthen our presence,” said Flemming Ornskov, Shire chief executive. He said Foresight’s FST-100 drug was “highly synergistic” with the commercial structure being built to market lifitegrast. If both were approved, the products “would address two of the leading reasons people seek eyecare treatment”, Mr Ornskov added.More than 11m cases of infectious conjunctivitis — also known as pink eye — occur annually in the US and EU. The potential ability of FST-100 to treat viral and bacterial forms of the disease could reduce unnecessary use of antibiotics for the condition, said Michael Weiser, director of Foresight. Shire said it would push FST-100 into late-stage clinical trials after promising mid-stage data. Lifitegrast, meanwhile, is awaiting a regulatory decision from the US Food and Drug Administration by October after positive late-stage trial results. Shire has tipped lifitegrast for peak annual revenues in excess of $1bn, making it an important part of Mr Ornskov’s drive to almost double product sales to $10bn by 2020.
I only recently started a long position in IRWD. I prefer to buy low.
Speaking of womens' rights... it seems there is some work to do in NA as well.
@A rally organized by three sisters who say they were stopped by a police officer for cycling topless a week ago drew hundreds of people in Waterloo, Ont., today, according to posts on social media. The "Bare With Us" rally at Waterloo Town Square aimed to educate people — and police — about women's right to be topless in public. "It was very, very amazing. It was really well-attended and the people who came were very supportive," Alysha Mohamed, a Juno-nominated singer who goes by the stage name Alysha Brilla, told CBC News. At least 300 people showed up, she said. Brilla and her sisters, Tameera and Nadia Mohamed, said they were not wearing shirts while cycling in neighbouring Kitchener, Ont., on July 24 when a male officer drove up beside them and told them to cover up because it is the law. Women in Ontario have had the right to go topless in public since 1996, when the Ontario Court of Appeal overturned the conviction of Gwen Jacobs, a university student who went topless on a hot summer day in Guelph in 1991. The court found there was "nothing degrading or dehumanizing" about her decision to take off her shirt in public.
@In the USA, though the majority of states are top-free, some cities in those states have passed (unconstitutional) ordinances that annul the state's top free statute. In Canada, the law on public decency is found in Sections 173 and 174 of the Criminal Code. However, what constitutes an indecent act is not defined, and is open to interpretation by the courts. Topfreedom is allowed in Ontario, Sasketchawen and British Columbia following specific court cases on the matter but the case for topless equality has not been heard by the Canadian Supreme Court yet.
BBD should absolutely do the float on the German exchange. Keep it far away from wall street and bay street manipulators.