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James River Coal Company Message Board

blackoutbuzz 738 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 minutes ago Member since: Apr 26, 2001
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  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 13 minutes ago Flag

    A golden cross is always nice to see but the highly erratic behavior of this stock suggests it isn't very amenable to TA. It would be more convincing if there was consistent;y higher than average volume along with this push upwards.

  • TRP stock price has been on real tear since breaking out above 52 on strong volume back in early July. I reduced my position yesterday (not my core stock holding just some leaps call options). It looks like the stock is going to continue to run up. I suppose the comments in Barron's are helping.

    @@@@@@TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) is positive early Monday following a mention in Barron's over the weekend. Barron's suspects shares could move from $51 up through $69 over the next few years. Many investors have been focused on the ever-delayed Keystone XL pipeline, which will bring crude from Alberta, Canada, to the U.Sk., but one of the company's overlooked assets is its $30 billion backlog. Shares go for about 23 times FY14 post-tax profit -- rich compared with segment peers -- and yield is 3.4 percent, versus an average 5.0 percent for U.S. MLPs. However, management sees EBITDA doubling over the next decade which using 2013 as a base. The stock goes for around 12 times FY15 EBITDA estimates, compared with 16 times for a name like Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI). Another appealing aspect is the potential for larger dividends. While TransCanada's yield is at 3.4 percent, the company only pays out about one-third of its cash flow, versus U.S. MLPs dishing out the vast majority to investors. Some market watchers also see the potential for an activist investor to push TransCanada for a larger dividend or to spin pipeline and power-generation assets. TransCanada is working on the $11 billion Energy East project, its largest capital expenditure. That will convert about 1,850 million of unused gas pipeline to transport crude. TransCanada also holds a controlling interest in TC PipeLines (NYSE: TCP), which yields 6 percent and hasn't been active lately due to light analyst coverage and relatively slow growth versus MLP peers. The company plans to 'drop down' certain U.S. pipeline assets to TC PipeLines in the coming years.

  • Reply to

    VMWorld

    by blackoutbuzz Aug 26, 2014 11:26 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 7 hours ago Flag

    This 'crash' is less than a week old. Earnings was a few weeks ago. Did they change guidance from that time?

  • Reply to

    Well, they spent some money today...

    by davebugs 20 hours ago
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 7 hours ago Flag

    Oops,... I meant crash into the mid-upper 30's. Clearly it did hit the 52 week low, but it certainly did not drop into the 30's on the last quarter results and guidance (as I believe you had suggested it would, and are suggesting again this time around). Anyway, it's becoming obvious the market wants accelerating growth to justify higher PE's.

  • Reply to

    What to do with a billion dollars

    by blackoutbuzz 8 hours ago
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 7 hours ago Flag

    I saw no reference to lower margins in external LED sales... they're claiming they can't deliver on some short lead time external sales opportunities due to capacity limitations...

  • If high power is where CREE has superiority then shouldn't they focus all their efforts in that space? Why push into consumer light bulbs instead of driving growth exclusively in commercial lighting? Why not focus on developing international partnerships and branding to dominate high power (outdoor) commercial lighting WORLDWIDE.

    From the CC: I think that over time we will see growth both in high power and mid power. And frankly, our focus is on the high power side because that's where we add the value

  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz 8 hours ago Flag

    This is a key deliverable along with accelerating top-line growth. Will CREE deliver?

    From the CC: if I look at the business year-over-year, our target or goal for the year is to actually increase operating leverage and operating margin percentage for the year.

  • Let's see, one excuse for the weak LED sales was because of fabs running at close to capacity. In that case, why no news about fab expansion? You can't capture sales if you can't produce enough product. If additional external chip demand doesn't materialize, internal lighting growth should quickly fill the gap, or does CREE not see internal growth sufficient to take the risk? Maybe the future isn't so bright after all...

    From the CC: at the high utilization rates that our factories are running because we have to keep in mind that our internal lighting demand has been going up. That high utilization limits our ability to react to some of the short lead time business in LED.

  • Reply to

    Well, they spent some money today...

    by davebugs 20 hours ago
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 8 hours ago Flag

    CREE forecast is basically to spend roughly their earnings on capex. So what about the big pile of money currently in the bank... that money has to go to work to accelerate growth not just continue to collect dust.

    From the CC-----For fiscal 2015 we're targeting property, plant and equipment spending to be similar to fiscal 2014 at $200 million plus or minus to support our new product priorities, provide incremental capacity and add infrastructure to support longer term forecasted growth.

  • Reply to

    Well, they spent some money today...

    by davebugs 20 hours ago
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 8 hours ago Flag

    No offense, but I believe you said the same thing last quarter.. ie. if they miss or guide down a new 52 week low will result Well it certainly dropped, but it did not crash to a 52 week low.

  • Reply to

    Well, they spent some money today...

    by davebugs 20 hours ago
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz 8 hours ago Flag

    The Market appears to be saying "Don't just spend money pointlessly, show me you can make it grow".

    I don't have a problem with buybacks, but only if it steadily reduces the shares outstanding. Buybacks are useless to shareholders if all it does is offset share-based compensation. In that case, it's better spent on growth initiatives, whether through acquisition or internal expansion. I don't see any news on either front. Stock price stagnation will be the norm here until CREE delivers accelerating growth.

  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz Aug 26, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    So the stock tanks as VMWorld kicks off. Yeah that makes sense....

  • Reply to

    Bond yields plunging again...hee hee

    by pope_puderectus Aug 26, 2014 9:20 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Aug 26, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    Nice try to avoid the question...I repeat... Have you missed the rally THIS YEAR in stocks? Ask yourself why you missed it.

  • Reply to

    Bond yields plunging again...hee hee

    by pope_puderectus Aug 26, 2014 9:20 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Aug 26, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    --- Have you missed the rally this year in bonds? ----

    Have you missed the rally this year in stocks?Ask yourself why you missed it.

  • Reply to

    Will today mark the breakout?

    by blackoutbuzz Aug 25, 2014 12:05 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Aug 25, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    Wow finally! Made it by the skin of its teeth but volume was not that good. Now lets see if those teeth can sink in and hold onto this gain tomorrow.

  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz Aug 25, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    How many attempts will it take for NKE to close above 80 and finally break out past the 52week high? Today looks promising but the volume is just not there.

  • Reply to

    Big Sellers

    by hyperinflationhyenas Aug 24, 2014 10:10 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Aug 24, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    How many conspiracy pills do you take daily... sheesh

  • Reply to

    WHY IS FUTURE UP SO MUCH?

    by marketalert2014 Aug 24, 2014 10:07 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Aug 24, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    Had to make up for the lost time?

  • BKW is running away to.... wait for it... yes... Canada of all places haha

    @@@@@Burger King may buy Canada’s Tim Hortons to cut its taxes By Liz Hoffman and Dana Mattioli Published: Aug 24, 2014 9:34 p.m. ET Deal would be structured as a so-called ‘tax inversion’ and move Burger King’s tax base to Canada, sources say.

  • Reply to

    This is the real endgame

    by nyk20h Aug 24, 2014 9:11 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Aug 24, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    They should have purchased BeOS a few years ago and built on that. They would have had a killer OS to fight the big boys.

JRCC
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