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James River Coal Company Message Board

blackoutbuzz 673 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Apr 26, 2001
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  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    It would instantly give VALE a powerful presence in NA IO markets. And if the price is not right now, will it ever be for such a deal?

    The WF analyst has a $4 floor on CLF, and acknowledges that restructuring of CLF is a distinct possibility that could unlock some value Certainly VALE could achieve as much (if not a lot more) if it bought the firm.

    @@@@Our valuation and estimates could prove overly bearish if iron ore pricing rebounds, China growth accelerates, or low cost miners pare back on supply additions. A succesful Bloom Lake restructuring could also offset some pricing headwinds.

  • Reply to

    wow. Lot of late selling pressure on the stock.

    by jj21383 Oct 1, 2014 3:13 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    So you think the WellsFargo analyst downward revision of CLF price range from 7-10 to 4-7 had no impact on the IO/coal sector today? You think it was only due to the general market correction and high USD pushing down commodities prices?

  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    Accumulating DEO below 115. I wonder how low it will go?

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    What's amazing is normally CREE and AYI react in sympathy to news from each other. CREE is in a dire situation indeed... if they don;t beat and raise, this could see downward pressure from tax loss selling until end of Nov.

  • Reply to

    Another new 52-week low

    by magic8ball_2u Oct 1, 2014 10:21 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    With the option IV's currently lower than HV, doesn't it make more sense to just go straight up with calls rather than a spread. I am looking at levering long itm leaps calls when the dump is finally over.

  • Reply to

    stop loss vs value

    by amaretto_fianchetto Oct 1, 2014 12:39 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    If they can't figure out what to do with it then they should give it back to shareholders.

  • Reply to

    stop loss vs value

    by amaretto_fianchetto Oct 1, 2014 12:39 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    Actually it might be much more effective to issue a special dividend than buy back stock to put a floor on the stock price. CREE's been sitting on big pile of cash and doing nothing with it for quite some time now... just keep what you really need and give the rest back to shareholders. Screw the buyback... it's tricky to time those well.

  • no pain no gain huh CdTe?

  • Reply to

    wow. Lot of late selling pressure on the stock.

    by jj21383 Oct 1, 2014 3:13 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    CLF just got hit hard on a bearish analyst update.

  • Reply to

    Another new 52-week low

    by magic8ball_2u Oct 1, 2014 10:21 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    Will you buy at 36 if it hits that before earnings? As you stated, if they miss or guidedown again all bets are off on where the bloodshed stops.

  • Reply to

    BLACKOUTBUZZ

    by beachsidefreddy Oct 1, 2014 9:32 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Dude, you would be much better off studying prospects of the multitude of companies in various sectors and making strategic timely purchases to build a diversified portfolio instead of pinning all your hopes on one stupid tiny stock and wasting all your effort here cheerleading it. Whatever....

  • Reply to

    Medusa,

    by mountainsidemikey Oct 1, 2014 3:17 AM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Well then DWCH should have announced sales wins before the supposed blackout took effect.

  • Reply to

    Amazing

    by blackoutbuzz Sep 30, 2014 6:54 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Be my guest... you can talk until you're blue in the face. It doesn't change the fact that the stock is poised to hit new a 52wk low and that there's a news vacuum in terms of sales contract announcements, which is the only news that matters at this point.

  • Reply to

    Probable got a fair price

    by margin321 Sep 30, 2014 6:39 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Nah, that's a very poor gauge imo. Those lawfirms jump into the fray on any deal, however good or bad it is for the shareholders.

  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Probability of debt default has increased

    @@@@@ London, 01 October 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service, (Moody's) has today downgraded Mechel OAO's corporate family rating (CFR) and probability of default rating (PDR) to Caa3 and Ca-PD, respectively from Caa1 and Caa1-PD. The outlook on all ratings remains negative. The rating action is driven by an increased probability of a distressed exchange, which constitutes a debt default under Moody's definition, or alternatively by a payment default under bank facilities that might take place shortly. The deterioration of Mechel's financial profile has been exacerbated by the company's sizeable leverage and weak coal market environment, so the company has very limited prospects for meaningful recovery in 2015. "The downgrade is driven by the increased likelihood of Mechel restructuring debt in an effort to avoid bankruptcy, which might entail any combination of lowered interest rates, write-down of principal, extension of debt maturities, or conversion of part of debt into equity, all of which would imply an economic loss to the existing lenders and therefore falls under our definition of default", says Denis Perevezentsev, a Moody's Vice President and lead analyst for Mechel. "The downgrade reflects our view that the government and state banks will not continue to provide funding to avoid a debt restructuring and a default of Mechel, although we remain confident that they will strive to achieve an orderly debt restructuring," added Mr. Perevezentsev.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Oct 1, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    AYI is up ~10% on earnings today.

    @@@@@Acuity Brands Inc. AYI +8.92% said its quarterly earnings rose 22% on the light-fixture company's revenue growth, which was driven by continued adoption of LED, or light-emitting-diode, lighting products. In the latest quarter sales of LED products nearly doubled from a year earlier, comprising about 40% of total sales, Chief Executive Vernon J. Nagel said. "We remain very bullish about our prospects for future profitable growth," Mr. Nagel said. The company's order rates through September reflect positive demand trends for the North American lighting market, he added.

  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz Sep 30, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    The stock is close to breaking down through 10 and beachball is still cheerleading with pompoms high in the air. sheesh

  • blackoutbuzz by blackoutbuzz Sep 30, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    If it's good enough for them that's good enough for me. I added to my long position today,

    @@@@@
    Sep 26/14 Sep 26/14 Dilger, Michael H. Control or Direction Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 10,000 $47.48
    Sep 26/14 Sep 26/14 Dyck, Eric Control or Direction Common Shares Amended Filing 10 - Acquisition in the public market 3,000 $47.39
    Sep 26/14 Sep 25/14 Dyck, Eric Control or Direction Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 1,350 $47.44
    Sep 25/14 Sep 24/14 Burrows, J. Scott Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 500 $47.97
    Sep 25/14 Sep 19/14 Murphy, Paul John Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market

  • Reply to

    BRUTAL.

    by thunderstar25 Sep 29, 2014 4:13 PM
    blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Sep 29, 2014 9:28 PM Flag

    Yeah, and that new guidance is below analyst estimates. Sorry, but the news out today is buttugly.

    @@@@@Bob Shanks, Ford's chief financial officer, also said the company's 2015 pretax profit is now expected to rise to between $8.5 billion and $9.5 billion, versus analysts' estimates of $10.6 billion.

  • blackoutbuzz blackoutbuzz Sep 29, 2014 7:30 PM Flag

    Why don't utilities offer to pay the railroaders higher transportation fees to prioritize their coal shipments over oil and grain? It's not like they're paying high prices for the coal to begin with, at least not these days anyway.

JRCC
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