More turd flinging today. So far we have ACOR, SHPG, JAZZ, PCYC/ABBV, BIIB, and CELG. Apparently he will be filing challenges to a total of 15 patents. The first of these will be coming up for review starting late summer, then six months after that rulings.
@@@The effects so far of the patent challenges brought by Dallas hedge fund manager Kyle Bass to big drug companies in the past few days have apparently been non-existent. Since the group Bass founded earlier this year, dubbed “The Coalition for Affordable Drugs,” filed a challenge yesterday to a patent owned by the state’s largest locally-based drugmaker, Biogen (Nasdaq: BIIB), it has filed two more. One is against a patent held by New Jersey-based Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) for its multiple myeloma drug, Thalomid, and the other takes aim at another Massachusetts company, Shire Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SHPG), and its drug for short bowel syndrome, Gattex. Bass announced his intentions earlier this year to file a total of 15 such patent challenges through a three-year-old process at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office called the inter partes review, or IPR. He has now filed nine.
Yes I understand that. But supply/demand balance is needed, and coal prices indicate supply is higher than demand. I have not seen news of significant mine production cutbacks. Consolidation in the industry is likely necessary, but before that happens I expect some miners to go BK.
Anyway, there are obviously many factors at play here, but the way I see it, none have turned favorable to the coal sector, so I will stay on the sidelines. GL to you all.
Well, I certainly dont place a lot of faith in the views of WS analysts or reporters, but I do have confidence in the EIA data and reports, and until those show a steady reversal then the current low price scenario will continue to hold imo.
As to history's comments, yes a partial or complete takeover or merger is always possible, or a catastrophic event that destroys production capacity. But barring such a white swan event, I just don't see any fast recovery in the coal industry, so no reason to buy coal stocks at this juncture. Who do you see as a likely buyer of BTU in such a scenario?Yes a partial or complete takeover or merger is always possible, or a catastrophic event that destroys production capacity. But barring such a white swan event, I just don't see any fast recovery in the coal industry, so no reason to buy coal stocks at this juncture. Who do you see as a likely buyer of BTU in such a scenario?
I'm not saying they won't go back up. But how much and how fast is a big unknown. There's a huge fracklog that will hold prices down in the shorter term and if drillers continue to improve their methods and reserves (P&P) continue to grow, it's not clear to me what level of price rises we can expect. If Marcellus production is breakeven at $2 then above that the spigots will continue to open.
I guess my point is that until NG production, reserves, and prices really does show a steady reversal, there can be no hope of any recovery in USA coal markets. And unless that reversal comes hard and fast, investors will have adequate time to step into coal plays. In the interim, I see no reason to buy coal stocks and hold awaiting a reversal that make take years while other opportunities to profit pass by.
In the past I would have though the same. But it appears that drillers continue to improve well extraction efficiency. Marcellus producers reportedly have a breakeven point below $2. And proved reserves just keep rising.
@@@@(Bloomberg) -- 7:01 PM EST February 5, 2015 U.S. natural gas production is poised to reach a record for a fifth year as shale drillers boost efficiency, driving prices toward a low of more than a decade. Output will rise 3.2 percent in 2015, led by gains at the Marcellus formation, the nation’s biggest shale deposit, according to the Energy Information Administration. Marcellus production will increase 2.8 percent through February after a 21 percent gain in 2014, a year when prices tumbled 32 percent. Producers in Pennsylvania and West Virginia have cut break-even costs by half since 2008, according to Oppenheimer & Co. Break-even prices for Marcellus producers have dropped below $2 per thousand cubic feet ($1.95 per million Btu) from around $4 in 2008, Gheit said in a Feb. 3 interview.Drilling more wells at one site and extending the length of horizontal wells are among the efficiencies that have helped gas companies cope with falling prices. The EIA expects Marcellus to climb to about 20 percent of production in the lower 48 states from about 2 percent in 2007. Cabot Oil & Gas Corp., the biggest Marcellus producer, plans to increase output by at least 20 percent this year. “The Marcellus has been a game changer in terms of production, reserve potential, everything,” said Fadel Gheit, a senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer & Co. in New York. “They are not waiting for higher gas prices to bail them out.” Proved U.S. gas reserves, supplies that can be recovered based on economic and operating conditions, jumped 9.7 percent in 2013 to 354 trillion cubic feet, equal to about 13 years of demand, a December EIA report showed. “Just the magnitude of the build-out in shale and the pace at which it gained momentum is surprising,”
I suspect there will be only a very minor impact on prices. NG producers will ramp up production to meet this additional demand.
-- How long can these gas production levels and low prices sustain? ---
Clearly, far longer than anyone would have predicted. Drilling technology has continued to improve and with huge natgas shale reserves in fields like Marcellus, it is possible that this low price environment could continue on for many years. A few years ago I was bullish on natgas and coal, but no longer. Combine low NG prices with chronic coal oversupply that shows virtually no sign of abating and it appears coal miners are doomed to mediocre returns for the foreseeable future. If anything, I would probably choose to invest in a coal processor like SXCP rather than the miners while waiting for a a recovery that may take several years. There is certainly no rush to buy BTU or any other coal stock.
If I recall correctly, PHM has lagged other builders in community count and order growth, and this was because they preferred to focus on higher prices than order volume. Is that not true?
I agree on the surface results look poor vs. DHI. But orders did increase which is positive. So did community count. Maybe PHM has lower order growth because they are holding out for higher sales prices? Also, I did not find any details on the construction delays. Is this attributable to adverse weather? Staying long here, but need to do some digging.
Huh? Check your facts. Today's ruling was not an overturn on appeal... that case will take a year or longer to be reviewed and the injunction remains in effect until then. The decision announced today was by a different district court on a different nuclear plant. It appears that each plant attempting to restart will face challenges like this. Very messy.
I do not dispute that. But if all these potential restarts have to go through a hierarchy of court proceedings there startup rate of the Japan reactors will be excruciatingly slow.
Do you have shares in SXCP? I took a quick look at this business, and it seems their production contracts span 10+ years with pass-throughs and take-or-pay to protect against variations in material prices or weak demand. They sell to the three big US steelmakers that run blast furnaces X, MT, and AKS. The only way I see this partnership suffering any serious harm is if these customers move away from blast furnace to EAF technology or one of them declares BK. Is this as safe a dividend play as I am led to believe? Thanks for any insights...
So it appears that two separate district courts have issued two opposing decisions. Sendai is a go, and Takahama is stuck waiting for injunction reversal on appeal to a higher court for at least a year. I would assume that this new court ruling rejecting the injunction to block startup of Sendai will also get appealed to a higher court? What a mess.
@@@ A Japanese court has rejected a legal bid to block the reopening of the Sendai nuclear power station on safety grounds, removing one of the last big hurdles to switching reactors back on after the 2011 Fukushima crisis paralyzed the industry. Wednesday's ruling by the Kagoshima District Court is a boost for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who wants to reboot nuclear power to help cut reliance on expensive fossil fuel imports.It is also a vote of confidence for a revamped regulator and suggests another court ruling last week to prevent the operation of two reactors west of Tokyo may have been an aberration for Japan's conservative judiciary.Last week it was a different scene in Fukui, where residents cheered after a court slapped an injunction on two reactors at the Takahama station operated by Kansai Electric Power.The Takahama No. 3 and 4 reactors have cleared the first regulatory hurdles and were expected to restart around November.
Oh wait... that doesn't really help CLF much does it. Never mind...
@@@@Iron-ore prices jumped after BHP Billiton Ltd. curbed the pace of its expansion program, slowing the final stages of the $120 billion race by the world’s biggest producers to raise output.