You missed the point I guess, which was the dejavu irony (to those of us who've already made the trip through this highly cyclical racket a time or two), of its predictability in producing the same old arguments time after time, posited each time as if they could be revelatory in the same ol' flux at various points in the supply/demand dynamic as it struggles to achieve its elusive equilibrium. So while never new, sorta comforting to hear again, much like watching old episodes of The Honeymooners, to use that analogy, which are classic, and so while producing no surprises, are still able to conjure up the same old laughs.
You might laugh yourself if you were to go back ten or even fifteen years on this thread and see how many times that very same logic, almost in those exact words, has been expressed.
Yet here we are.
Actually sis, I had a chance to buy a controlling interest in Solandra from the bummer administration who was happy to take the billion dollar loss. Cuz hey, it was only tax money.
But, knowing the democraps' faculty for pizzing away our money, I decided not to take the risk, and bought a quart of beer instead.
Which only goes to prove that fascist authoritarians often get the small stuff right while making a total #$%$ over tea kettlel bullox of the big picture.
While leftist authoritarians on the other hand? Pretty much bungle everything.
I dunno. The geopolitical analysts who each year unanimously predict trouble in the middle east have so far been able to maintain their perfect record.
Yeah, well, you might also say that since no two physical entities can simultaneously occupy the same space at the same time, that in the instance of that example the air (at least to the volume that it is displaced) is full of glass.
An equally relevant observation I think.
Well, you're certainly the one to judge alright.
The only situation where being stupid qualifies as an unassailable credential for expert testimony.
Only you need to look at more than a price chart I think. For one thing there was an element of optimism baked into the share price for a possible, even a presumed start at least to a 2016 recovery factored then that's all but missing now, as both analysts and the companies themselves (as expressed in their [the E&Ps and drillers] recent guidance where most efforts seem focused on defensive cost reduction... not a confidence inspiring thing for the short term) have all but written off next year it seems.
That is to say, the gloom factor is more evident now than it was then and what there is of enthusiasm for a brighter future seems to be all but wrung out these days here at that 17 level, which has become a surer place to short these days than anything.
Not to say that you can't be buying now like a mad fiend and not expect to harvest a sizable profit when the cycle swings back toward the apex of its orbit. Not saying that at all. Just that we may see things get a bit diceyer before that happens.
Hey, but that's juss me... so fill in the usual disclaimer.
Not quite so generally in fact.
Up 4% yesterday on low vol. for example.
I'm still counting it though.
Hey, might's well. The market sure does.
Yeah, been playing the options all year on those more or less predictable parameters (with both puts and calls at the front and back ends). Had to cover at a loss on occasions when those parameters shifted (nastily once or twice), but as the year draws to a close (even after a coupla really bad months there) am still comfortably on the win side of the ledger.
Not the wild speculator I once was and am thus happy with making a K or so a week. And as I look at the running tally I keep here on my desk, having cleared 1400 at yesterday's expiry, 1600 the week before, 3500 the week before that with another 1600 the week prior as examples, with bets currently out through Dec 11.
A rational appeal to the good sense of any march hare is, well, not rational.
Kind of you to try, though.
Transocean Sedco Forex. With me it was Falcon of course.
Trouble with such gobbling is that the gobbled company's debts naturally get gobbled along with the edible parts. If the street perception is that the deal makes sense, is a good fit for what develops out of the deal with the usual elimination of redundancy argument accepted as mitigating those liabilities and a stronger company will likely emerge from it when industry fortunes change, that's fine. But if it's perceived that the timing is bad, the gobbling company may have made a bad deal i.e. paid too much or that the incurred liability is not sufficiently off-set and may create more danger to the bottom line in the context of a protracted negative environment, the initial street response may be (and often is, even though things may work out nicely over time and in the end) unfavorable to the gobbler.
Ahwoooooo, dem evil shorts again.
A particular and all too often cited boogeyman on this particular thread... in its current emotionally fraught credulous and less useful incar*nation.
In by gone days such mention was of "da bigboys" or "market specialists" as being the prime, ever lurking nefarious perps and applecart upsetting culprits.
Actually, the initial response to deals like that almost invariably results in the purchaser being being more likely hammered down for a while with, if anything, a bump up for the proposed purchasee before details are revealed and the deal is (if ever) progresses beyond rumor.
And anyway, if fundamentals are already baked in, and yet we know fundamentals change, how can they be discounted in advance and at the same time say they don't count?
Much like a cake going no further than the recipe stage cuz all that sugar flour and baking soda are already discounted, so bon appetit.
And btw, buy it and eat all yuh want cause I can personally guarantee you, it's very low cal.
And earnings of course.
Only why analysts are revising them upward right now is a mystery, which only sets up a miss at some point down the road. I mean, I could see them reevaluating their grim prediction for crude this year and adjusting their time frame predictions for a beginning recovery (currently all the way out to 2017), but these successive beats having spoiled us and maybe their getting a bit tired of being wrong all the time has something to do with it.
Actually in the case of the O&G drillers it (the market) does... since there are fundamentals, and the anticipation of fundamentals. Which are fundamentals too, really.
Heck, we see it every day as the shares react to crude prices, fleet reports, day rates etc..