Yeah, been playing the options all year on those more or less predictable parameters (with both puts and calls at the front and back ends). Had to cover at a loss on occasions when those parameters shifted (nastily once or twice), but as the year draws to a close (even after a coupla really bad months there) am still comfortably on the win side of the ledger.
Not the wild speculator I once was and am thus happy with making a K or so a week. And as I look at the running tally I keep here on my desk, having cleared 1400 at yesterday's expiry, 1600 the week before, 3500 the week before that with another 1600 the week prior as examples, with bets currently out through Dec 11.
A rational appeal to the good sense of any march hare is, well, not rational.
Kind of you to try, though.
Yeah, well, to put it in perspective, in the mind of the hens, capons and roosters, the guy wearing the rubber boots and carrying the feed bucket must seem like a god.
Which is why the majority of lefties are so easily led around the barnyard by any featherless creature offering a free lunch.
Transocean Sedco Forex. With me it was Falcon of course.
Trouble with such gobbling is that the gobbled company's debts naturally get gobbled along with the edible parts. If the street perception is that the deal makes sense, is a good fit for what develops out of the deal with the usual elimination of redundancy argument accepted as mitigating those liabilities and a stronger company will likely emerge from it when industry fortunes change, that's fine. But if it's perceived that the timing is bad, the gobbling company may have made a bad deal i.e. paid too much or that the incurred liability is not sufficiently off-set and may create more danger to the bottom line in the context of a protracted negative environment, the initial street response may be (and often is, even though things may work out nicely over time and in the end) unfavorable to the gobbler.
Ahwoooooo, dem evil shorts again.
A particular and all too often cited boogeyman on this particular thread... in its current emotionally fraught credulous and less useful incar*nation.
In by gone days such mention was of "da bigboys" or "market specialists" as being the prime, ever lurking nefarious perps and applecart upsetting culprits.
Actually, the initial response to deals like that almost invariably results in the purchaser being being more likely hammered down for a while with, if anything, a bump up for the proposed purchasee before details are revealed and the deal is (if ever) progresses beyond rumor.
And anyway, if fundamentals are already baked in, and yet we know fundamentals change, how can they be discounted in advance and at the same time say they don't count?
Much like a cake going no further than the recipe stage cuz all that sugar flour and baking soda are already discounted, so bon appetit.
And btw, buy it and eat all yuh want cause I can personally guarantee you, it's very low cal.
And earnings of course.
Only why analysts are revising them upward right now is a mystery, which only sets up a miss at some point down the road. I mean, I could see them reevaluating their grim prediction for crude this year and adjusting their time frame predictions for a beginning recovery (currently all the way out to 2017), but these successive beats having spoiled us and maybe their getting a bit tired of being wrong all the time has something to do with it.
Actually in the case of the O&G drillers it (the market) does... since there are fundamentals, and the anticipation of fundamentals. Which are fundamentals too, really.
Heck, we see it every day as the shares react to crude prices, fleet reports, day rates etc..
Hey newman, you want a good laugh go to you-tube and type in Henry Silva bulls#$ or not.
Another earnings beat possibly already discounted may not translate to a big up move mañana but it should go a ways toward putting a floor under any downside risk for a while so long as crude stays in fair proximity to the current range.
You'll hafta forgive me, newman. Hey you know me. The only practical knowledge I have of schooners is of the sort that can handle a full can uh beer without a lotta wasteful foam over spillage.
Uh-huh. Only there are lots better ways to prove you're a man though, like showing off your sideburns, talking sports authoritatively (other than soccer of course) or going around lifting heavy stuff. Or that old Jerry Seinfeld line about opening your closet door and exposing all the gender verifying suits ties and sport jackets hanging there.
So what motivates you then? Is it an irresistible itch you can't control, or maybe some psychic vibe you can't help sharing, cuz if that's it and you ever get one predicting some disaster on the order of flood, fire or famine you feel you need to prepare for? I wouldn't sell the farm and go into hock just yet by investing in crates of c rations, asbestos long-johns, or a four masted schooner if I were you.
I believe you meant "advice"... if that's what you wanna call it.
More like feckless cheerleading though.
Which I hope you find therapeutic anyway.
I mean, otherwise there's hardly any point to it is there? Other than continuingly branding yourself a fool... a thing that can be accomplished more easily (with the added merit of wasting less of other people's time) with a dunce cap or wunna those beanies with a propellers on top.