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The Fresh Market, Inc. (TFM) Message Board

blake055122 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2014 10:04 PM Member since: Jul 30, 2009
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  • Reply to

    The close was $0.07 below the 50 day EMA

    by monk_no_more Jul 24, 2014 4:09 PM
    blake055122 blake055122 Jul 24, 2014 10:04 PM Flag

    NFLX is definitely in a downtrend but shorts are in a vulnerable spot right now. $422-$424 is support/resistance level. Average selling pressure today leaves room for bounce

  • Reply to

    Looks like ....

    by daddiray Jul 24, 2014 7:42 PM
    blake055122 blake055122 Jul 24, 2014 10:02 PM Flag

    At $422 ?

  • Reply to

    NFLX Buyout

    by berman222 Jul 22, 2014 7:38 PM
    blake055122 blake055122 Jul 22, 2014 10:39 PM Flag

    Name the last company that was bought out with a current P/E of 160

  • Reply to

    NFLX Buyout

    by berman222 Jul 22, 2014 7:38 PM
    blake055122 blake055122 Jul 22, 2014 10:39 PM Flag

    How high are you Berman? Acid or buds?

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow up 20 -- buy AH

    by sid02930 Jul 22, 2014 4:59 PM
    blake055122 blake055122 Jul 22, 2014 5:33 PM Flag

    How would getting short NFLX be fighting the trend. The stock is clearly entering the beginning of a decline stage, which is confirmed by a 50 point reversal off the $474 high, the 10 day MA crossing the 20, and the MACD line crossing beneath the MACD signal. If anything, buying NFLX right now on a downtrend would actually be considered fighting the trend. The only reason I would buy NFLX would be to play the "dead cat bounce" if selling pressure was weak at different levels of support. Now that the stock is in a downtrend, traders should be looking to short any subsequent rallies or breakdowns occur on large volume at various support levels.

    #GETSHORT

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow up 20 -- buy AH

    by sid02930 Jul 22, 2014 4:59 PM
    blake055122 blake055122 Jul 22, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    Wouldn't expect NFLX to rally past $436-$438 range tomorrow.

    As for your analysis, what makes you think hedge funds haven't already sold into the rallies at $452, $452, $474, $470 in yesterdays AH, and also today? These hedge funds didn't seem to have a problem with seeing NFLX move all the way from $457 to $300 last time the stock made a similar move.

    Remember, NFLX was on a serious uptrend and as soon as professionals begin to see weakness in the trend professionals are the first to leave, leaving the amateur holding the bag.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • blake055122 blake055122 Jul 22, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    Wouldn't be surprised to see NFLX blow under $422-$424 tomorrow on high selling volume. However, I wouldn't try to jump in and short NFLX to early. It could easily rally upward towards $437 resistance tomorrow before making another downward move. By the end of August I could see NFLX testing $380-$384 support and ultimately end up in the $300-$330 range by the start of September. At this time it may be wise to just sit on the sidelines or play the rally into Q3 earnings. NFLX appears to be forming a head & shoulders pattern on the 5 year monthly time frame so a rally off of $300 would be probable, before ultimately making a massive downward movement after completing the head & shoulders pattern.

  • Reply to

    Technically it is sell signal Double Top

    by stockspy1 Jul 22, 2014 3:43 PM
    blake055122 blake055122 Jul 22, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    5 year monthly looks like it's forming a head & shoulders pattern. Short-term 180 day I can see why it may look like a double top but if it were a true double top it wouldn't make sense to see NFLX make another high at $474, rather than $457. $384 looks to be the "true level of value" over the past 180 days but I wouldn't say that's the next level of support. The next level of support appears to be $422-$424. If NFLX were to break through that with another high level of volume I would say the next level of support after that is $416 and then $405-407.

    With that being said, I still strongly agree that NFLX is in the early stages of a downtrend and should be a strong sell for Longs. As an active trader I have purchased 8/16 $400 puts and am looking for NFLX to rally off of various levels of support and looking to short the "uptick" on any future rallies. As for a current shorting oppertunity I would look for NFLX to test resistance at $436-$438 range, or wait for another breakdown on strong volume if NFLX were to fall underneath the $422-$424 level of support and try to close the trade out around $416.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • blake055122 blake055122 Jun 26, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    Why would people sell their stocks when everyone is betting on the Economy bouncing back due to the labor trend, 16 IPOs coming out in the last two weeks, $VIX steady low, and the first company releasing earnings that anyone even cares about is $GOOG on 7/14. These stocks are rallying hard and will blow through the top if earnings impress. Considering these analyst get paid so these companies always make or meet their earnings and everyone benefits from continuation of rising stock prices.... you can do the math on that bull run.......

  • Not must resistance stopping $yelp from $81.50 and I was surprised at the strength $yelp showed during Fridays close. I would then be patient and look for a shorting opportunity bc $yelp continues to be overvalued. As for the OpenTable buyout news, I would not be worried or think $yelp will ever be bought out. With a market cap of $5B I do not see why any company would be willing to pay a 30% markup price. $yelp's IPO looks like a scam

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