The $10 billion you hypothesize is money coming in the front door. That is rightly called revenue. If Amazon has to pay the third party sellers $7 billion, then that is cost of sales and shows up on the balance sheet. That is exactly the way Macy's does it when they acquire (and pay for)clothing from manufacturers and sell it at a 30% margin.
How do you evaluate a company that is currently selling at only 2 times sales and is growing at 20% per year? What are other companies like this sellig for?
The Amazon results are dollars coming in the door, not paper results. Are you saying that these dollars coming in the door cannot be converted into profits? Amazon increased property, plant and equipment by $7B in 2014 and still increased cash on hand to $12 billion. What happens if Amazon cuts back on capital investment? Doesn't that turn into profit?
You evaluate Amazon based on price to sales (2.4) rather than Price to earnings. Companies usually sell at 3-6 times sales. Amazon could double or triple. Amazon doesn't manage the company for quarterly earnings or even yearly earnings, but on revenue and revenue growth instead. At zero earnings, Amazon pays no taxes. They take all of the money that would be earnings in other companies and use it for capital expenditures to grow revenues. Any time they want, they can produce a quarterly or even yearly profit by cutting back on capital expenditures.
Today's Politico article on TPP and pharmaceuticals appears to be good news for SCLN and Zadaxin. Although China is not a party to TPP, it likely would be strongly driven by the provisions. In the case of Zadaxin, the TPP draft language on pharmaceuticals and patent protection would likely cripple the competition to Zadaxin in China if the draft rules persist and the Chinese go along. That would be a reason for analysts like MLV to predict strong future sales for Zadaxin in Asia and, particularly, in China.
I can't help but wonder why MLV comes out with a recommendation now and why.
The recommendation came out on the last days of the quarter and SCLN is due to announce earnings 10-14 Aug. The only other analysts have estimated the earnings for the second quarter at 12 cents. This is up from their estimates for the first quarter of 3 cents, which SCLN handily beat at 19 cents. What will happen if SCLN comes out with earnings significantly better than 12 cents?
I suspect another 20 cent quarter would goose the stock significantly and everyone would have to change the yearly estimate well up from the 51 cent present estimates. It could go to 80 cents or even one dollar for the year. That would warrant an increase in the price multiplier as well as an increase in the earnings estimate. That would certainly put $15 or even higher into play.
Now, I suspect that MLV has some inkling of a better quarter than 12 cents. Their info could be coming from a SCLN insider (of course, that would be illegal) or from someone within the Chinese government or the hospitals that distribute SCLN products, or even from some innocuous source like FEDEX making deliveries. I cannot see a company sticking their necks out with an estimate like this for a company as small as SCLN. I think they think they know something the rest of us haven't learned yet. I can't wait until the few days before the earnings report and the week following that.
Should you use trailing ttm earnings or the earnings annual future projection for this calculation. The expected future earnings for 2015 is $0.75.
If you buy 10 contracts (1000 shares), that would be one lot. If you buy 100 contracts (10,000) shares, that would also be one lot.
You are trying to outguess the CEO. He sees 15% growth for at least 5 years. That should justify a 20 PE value on earnings of $0.75 per year or price of 15.