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Nokia Corporation Message Board

blimpsrus2001 739 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Jan 22, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Nokia is a dog

    by timothy_teresawest 15 hours ago
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 15 hours ago Flag

    What do you care? You are not invested in the company

  • blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 25, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    swoope just posting what I have read whether not true or true.I am long Nokia :)

  • Nokia (NYSE:NOK) was once the largest mobile phone manufacturer globally. However, the company shifted its focus and restructured after selling off its handset business to Microsoft last year. Nokia currently specializes in providing wireless telecom infrastructure equipment and services as well as location services across the world through its Nokia Networks and HERE Maps business divisions, respectively. The company also licenses its patents to handset manufacturers, bringing in recurring and steady high-margin revenues through its Nokia Technologies division.

    In 2014, the company’s overall revenues were about flat year-over-year (y-o-y) at #$%$12.7 billion ($13.99 billion) owing to sluggish Nokia Networks sales which were offset by strong performances by HERE Maps and Nokia Technologies. Networks is the largest business division for Nokia, contributing about 90% of the company’s sales and about 54% of the company’s value, according to our estimates. We believe that Nokia Networks gaining share in the global wireless infrastructure market and the company improving its Networks EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization) margin will be most accretive to Nokia’s value going forward. In our present valuation of the company, we forecast its wireless market share to increase from an estimated 18.3% in 2014 to almost 19% by the end of our forecast period. We also forecast its Networks EBITDA margin to remain flat at around 15-16% going forward.

    However, if Nokia is unable to tackle increasing competition from bigger players such as Ericsson and Huawei or if it fails to adapt to technological advances in the wireless infrastructure space, its market share and margins are likely to be impacted, thereby significantly impacting its valuation. Nokia also faces the threat of reduced capital expenditures by mobile operators and telecom providers such as Verizon, AT&T and Sprint on account of concerns over profitability or due to their adoption of new technologies such as software-defined networking (SDN). In this article, we discuss how such scenarios could impact our $8 price estimate for NokiaDecline In Networks EBITDA Margin (Valuation Impact -10%)

    Nokia’s top line declined by 17% y-o-y in the first quarter last year as the company exited unprofitable service contracts, primarily in EMEA and Latin America. This was done as part of its big restructuring program to cut operating expenses by #$%$1.35 billion and increase its focus on mobile broadband. The company was able to reverse much of these top line losses in the subsequent quarters owing to higher LTE spending across geographies including North America, Greater China and Asia-Pacific. In the fourth quarter last year, Nokia’s mobile broadband sales grew 13% driven by strong sales growth in North America and modest growth in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

    Looking past the improvement in top line gains last year, it is important to note that the company’s sales figures show Networks’ strong dependence on developed markets for growth. The company reported y-o-y declines in Networks’ sales in emerging markets such as Greater China and Latin America in Q4 2014 and its growth in other emerging markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar and India was offset by lower network deployment in Japan. In fact, the company reported y-o-y declines in Networks’ sales in four out of six markets in full year 2014 including Europe, Latin America and Asia-Pacific. The only regions witnessing growth were North America and Greater China. Therefore, if network spending in developed markets witnesses a downtrend going forward, the company may not be able to register top line growth following its selective approach of opting for only high-margin contracts. Verizon and AT&T have hinted at slightly lower capital spending on networks this year, and this is unlikely to be offset by a likely turnaround in Europe.

    Moreover, tackling rising competition in the Asia-Pacific region, especially China and India, will be tricky as the company will likely have to walk the tightrope between bagging low-margin contracts to maintain or improve market share and expanding margins by compromising on top line gains. If Nokia is unable to maintain a fine balance between the two and network spending in developed markets fails to find momentum, its Networks margins could decline going forward. If Nokia Networks’ margins decline from the current 15% to 14% by the end of our forecast period, our price estimate for Nokia could drop by about 5%. However, if margins decline further to 12%, Nokia’s price estimate could fall by over 10%.Decline In Wireless Market Share (Valuation Impact -5%)

    Although the company did fairly well last year to gain new wireless LTE contracts, it might not be able to sustain this momentum because of growing competition from global networking giants such as Ericsson and Huawei as well as other players such Alcatel-Lucent and ZTE. Nokia might also lose out if it continues to be selective in bidding for only high-margin contracts.

    If the company loses out to rivals in getting lucrative mobile broadband contracts and its wireless market share drops from currently over 18% to 16% by the end of our review period, our price estimate for Nokia could decline by about 5%. On the other hand, if Nokia capitalizes on its newfound momentum and increases its market share to 22% in the next five years, our price estimate for Nokia could witness an upside of over 5%.

  • Reply to

    texassucksbig17

    by red4751 Mar 24, 2015 5:24 AM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 24, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    Thanks for the advice red I agree 100% percent

  • Reply to

    JP Morgan overweight

    by giguy_1999 Mar 24, 2015 8:54 AM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 24, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    no problem just odd they have the same price target from 2013.

  • Reply to

    JP Morgan overweight

    by giguy_1999 Mar 24, 2015 8:54 AM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 24, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    Overweight
    NOK
    down 49.90 %
    Nokia Corporation (NOK) rated Overweight with price target $10.80 by JP Morgan
    Posted on: Friday, Dec 6, 2013 8:25 AM ET by JP Morgan GIGUY 2013?

  • Yes no maybe?

  • Reply to

    texassucksbig17

    by red4751 Mar 24, 2015 5:24 AM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 24, 2015 6:39 AM Flag

    Hey red nice find in LLL.Long Nokia since 2012.Check out WATT and Geron what is your opinion on the two companies.

  • blimpsrus2001 by blimpsrus2001 Mar 20, 2015 8:14 AM Flag

    I saw stock when it was 170.00.Could not pull trigger

  • Reply to

    Harry boxer short term price target is $5.98.

    by jkokao Mar 19, 2015 9:56 AM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 19, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    No link I will speak for jkokao

  • Reply to

    7 days over $4.00

    by charlie_hebdo_1 Mar 19, 2015 9:39 AM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 19, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    Should of purchased in lots but all @ 4.45

  • Reply to

    Cancer Survivors For Gern

    by theebs Mar 17, 2015 10:12 AM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 17, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    I am with you brother congrats on beating this disease.I too am a cancer survivor.Stage 4 Non Hodgkin lymphoma.I was given 20% to live :(

  • with JNJ involved?

  • Reply to

    Did I make a Mistake?

    by gprocinema Mar 16, 2015 11:27 PM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 16, 2015 11:35 PM Flag

    On paper no worries I lost a lot more than that :)

  • blimpsrus2001 by blimpsrus2001 Mar 16, 2015 10:55 PM Flag

    The Stories Behind the Signals
    Surges in insider trading appear to divine an upcoming switch in the market's direction. But outside investors have to be awfully careful about reading positive messages into every insider buy they see. Investors must also avoid treating individual sales as signals to unload their own holdings. Admittedly, one big insider buy or sell order might offer investors a hint of things to come, but it hardly translates into a sure-fire pointer for outperforming the market.

    More companies require newly appointed executives and directors to own shares. As market indicators, these required purchases are irrelevant to outside investors. Other companies encourage ownership by providing stock loans to executives for half the purchase price. These are examples of the company taking steps to align the interests of management and shareholders. While certainly commendable, these transactions do not provide reason for outsiders to buy stock.Sometimes an insider will announce a stock buy just to get Wall Street's attention, but announcing is not the same as doing. Healtheon founder Jim Clark once proclaimed that he intended to buy as much as $100 million worth of the company stock. Healtheon shares surged the day of the announcement, but Clark didn't buy anywhere near as much as he had suggested. The stock quickly declined, and those who followed his lead got burned.

    Although they may buy their company's stock because they expect good things to come, insiders do not sell simply because they think their company shares are about to sink in value. Insiders sell for all kinds of reasons. They might want to diversify their holdings, distribute stock to investors, pay for a divorce or take a well-earned trip.

    Another big problem with using insider data on specific companies is that executives sometimes misread company prospects. Some insiders may buy even as share prices collapse. When insiders do correctly assess their companies' share, it can be a matter of luck as much as anything else.
    Tips for beating the market tend to come and go quickly, but one has held up extremely well: if executives, directors or others with inside knowledge of a public company are buying or selling shares, investors should consider doing the same thing. Indeed, much research shows that insider trading activity is a valuable barometer of broad shifts in market and sector sentiment. But, before chasing each insider move, outsiders need to consider the factors that dictate the timing of trades and the factors that conceal the motivations.

    Reasons to Follow
    The argument for shadowing insiders makes a lot of sense. Executives and directors have the most up-to-date information on their companies' prospects. Intimately acquainted with cyclical trends, order flow, supply and production bottlenecks, costs and other key ingredients of business success, these insiders are way ahead of analysts and portfolio managers, not to mention individual investors. Insiders' decisions - legal or not - to trade in their own companies' stocks are certainly worth examining.

    Research supports the view that insider information works best in the aggregate. Independent research firm Market Profile Theorem (MPT) showed that insider trading trends signal an up-and-coming shift in market sentiment. To identify trends, MPT analysts employ the Brooks ratio, which divides total insider sales of a company by total insider trades (purchases and sales) and then averages this ratio for 2,500 stocks. If the average Brooks ratio is less than 40%, the market outlook is bullish; above 60% signals a bearish outlook.

    University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of "Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading" (2000), offers a similar story. Stock prices rise more after insiders' net purchases than after net sales. On the whole, insiders do earn profits from their legal trading activities, and their returns are greater than those of the overall market.

    The Stories Behind the Signals
    Surges in insider trading appear to divine an upcoming switch in the market's direction. But outside investors have to be awfully careful about reading positive messages into every insider buy they see. Investors must also avoid treating individual sales as signals to unload their own holdings. Admittedly, one big insider buy or sell order might offer investors a hint of things to come, but it hardly translates into a sure-fire pointer for outperforming the market.

    More companies require newly appointed executives and directors to own shares. As market indicators, these required purchases are irrelevant to outside investors. Other companies encourage ownership by providing stock loans to executives for half the purchase price. These are examples of the company taking steps to align the interests of management and shareholders. While certainly commendable, these transactions do not provide reason for outsiders to buy stock.

    Sometimes an insider will announce a stock buy just to get Wall Street's attention, but announcing is not the same as doing. Healtheon founder Jim Clark once proclaimed that he intended to buy as much as $100 million worth of the company stock. Healtheon shares surged the day of the announcement, but Clark didn't buy anywhere near as much as he had suggested. The stock quickly declined, and those who followed his lead got burned.

    Although they may buy their company's stock because they expect good things to come, insiders do not sell simply because they think their company shares are about to sink in value. Insiders sell for all kinds of reasons. They might want to diversify their holdings, distribute stock to investors, pay for a divorce or take a well-earned trip.

    Another big problem with using insider data on specific companies is that executives sometimes misread company prospects. Some insiders may buy even as share prices collapse. When insiders do correctly assess their companies' share, it can be a matter of luck as much as anything else.

    Employee stock options, which compose an ever-larger portion of executives' compensation, can make analysis tricky. Remember this: if the insider is exercising stock options by buying the stock, it is not very meaningful if the options were granted at rock-bottom prices. At the same time, when buying through the exercise of their options, executives do not have to disclose this. Outsiders can really only guess how much "real" buying is taking place.

    Tips for Using Insider Data
    Investors should consider the following guidelines when analyzing specific insider trading situations:

    Some insiders are better than others.
    Directors know less about a company's outlook than executives. Key executives are the CEO and CFO. People running the company know the most about where it is heading.
    A lot of trading is better than a little.
    One or two insiders at a big corporation do not make a trend. Three or more provide a better indication that something is happening. Generally speaking, solitary trades are unreliable.
    People at small companies know more.
    At small and mid-sized companies, virtually all insiders are privy to company financials. At big corporations, information is more dispersed and typically only the core management team has the big picture.Stay the course.
    Evidence suggests that insiders tend to act far in advance of expected news. They do this in part to avoid the appearance of illegal insider trading. A study by academics at Pennsylvania State and Michigan State contends that insider activity precedes specific company news by as long as two years before the disclosure of the news.
    Conclusion
    Here is the upshot: insider tracking is not easy, and it is hardly a guarantee of big returns. A pattern of trades might offer a cue for upcoming market shifts, and it is certainly reassuring to buy or sell a stock knowing that an insider is doing the same thing. Following the lead of insiders, however, will never replace diligent research.

  • blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 14, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    colton I recently purchased shares of Geron and like where company is headed but be realistic here and not post garbage :)

  • blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 14, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    When I see it I will believe it until then just speculation

  • Reply to

    Wish me luck

    by blimpsrus2001 Mar 13, 2015 10:21 AM
    blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 13, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    Thank You vinman

  • blimpsrus2001 by blimpsrus2001 Mar 13, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Just purchased 11,000 shares

  • blimpsrus2001 blimpsrus2001 Mar 11, 2015 5:36 PM Flag

    What is you take on Apple being interested in acquiring HERE map? I believe the right price and Nokia would unload HERE map

NOK
7.64-0.22(-2.80%)Mar 26 4:06 PMEDT